Oct 12 Phosphate Daily Review: Cautious Downstream Purchasing, Phosphate Prices Drift Lower

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data: on Oct 12, the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,772.50, down 0.40% from the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,050.00, down 5.81% from the previous working day; the 58% powder index was 4,350.00, stable from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic MAP market continued to run weak. On the enterprise side, most plants were still executing earlier orders and continuing floor-price policies; plants and traders mostly had no clear quotes, with actual transactions negotiated. On the market side, supply was ample and the trading atmosphere was stalemated and quiet. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises released some demand, but purchasing was still mainly rigid-need buying; market sentiment was relatively cautious and demand remained fairly weak. On the raw material side, today domestic sulfur prices consolidated weakly with divergent trends; sulfur port inventory remained at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices rebounded; the phosphate rock market was mostly stable; raw material prices on the cost side rebounded somewhat, strengthening support to enterprises. Overall, the MAP market currently maintains a pattern of marginally weakening cost support and sluggish demand recovery, and is expected to stay weak in the short term. Going forward, focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream autumn-fertilizer demand, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Price (yuan/t)

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data: on Oct 12, the domestic DAP mainstream 64% granular index was 4,591.67, down 0.47% from the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,250.00, stable from the previous working day; the 57% content index was 4,050.00, down 1.82% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic DAP market showed a weak consolidation. On the enterprise side, some enterprises focused mainly on shipping previously placed orders, and some traders stepped up low-price selling, with actual transactions remaining negotiated. On the market side, the trading atmosphere was stalemated. On the demand side, downstream purchasing was mostly small-lot rigid demand, participants mostly held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, large-scale purchasing had not yet started, some traders were under pressure, and market prices drifted lower. On the raw material side, today domestic sulfur prices ran weak with divergent trends; sulfur port inventory remained at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices rebounded; the phosphate rock market was mostly stable; raw material prices on the cost side rebounded somewhat, strengthening support to enterprises. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak consolidation in the short term; going forward, focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Diammonium Phosphate Market Price (yuan/t)

Sulfur Market Price:

According to FDD data: on Oct 12, the domestic sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port (granular) was 7,075 yuan/t, stable from the previous working day; at Dafeng Port (granular) 7,055 yuan/t, stable from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port (lump-powder) 7,025 yuan/t, stable from the previous working day; Dafeng Port (lump-powder) 7,005 yuan/t, stable from the previous working day; East China solid 7,200 yuan/t, stable from the previous working day; East China liquid 7,145 yuan/t, down 150 yuan/t from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic sulfur spot market continued its weak, range-bound pattern, with a subdued overall trading atmosphere. Today, granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports consolidated weakly, with a spread between bid and ask quotes, no concluded deals, and quiet trading. Shandong liquid sulfur fell sharply; refinery auctions saw lackluster transactions, sellers lowered starting prices amid rising inventory, but downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the "buy rising, not falling" mentality suppressed deals. At Zhenjiang Port, potential buyers showed scant inquiries, supply and demand stalemated with no substantive negotiations; recently few one-price deals were concluded, price references were blurry, and the market was generally on the sidelines. In-port buying interest bid low, continually eroding holders' sentiment; the short-term stalemate is hard to break and the market still has a downward-drift expectation. On the supply side, domestic refinery shipment pace was steady, port arrivals recovered somewhat, overall tradeable supply remained stable, some holders' selling sentiment loosened, and quotes had room for concessions. Demand was weak: downstream sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer enterprises are currently in a demand gap period — autumn fertilizer is wrapping up and winter storage has not yet started — downstream plants operate at low rates, purchases are mostly just-in-time, willingness for large-scale stocking is insufficient, inquiries follow up limitedly, and sustained buying support is hard to form. On the cost and external side, international sulfur external prices fell somewhat, the earlier geopolitical support gradually weakened, and import-cost support for domestic spot declined. Overall market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and participants mostly wait for downstream winter-storage demand to be released before arranging purchases. In the short term, the sulfur market lacks strong bullish drivers, and prices will most likely remain in weak, range-bound operation; going forward, focus on port arrival pace, phosphate fertilizer enterprises' raw material restocking, and changes in external market news.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Regional Market Quotation Overview (yuan/t)

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News and Updates:

Oct 12: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted near 3,750-3,850 yuan/t, a downgrade.

Oct 12: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted near 3,900-4,000 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 12: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted near 3,750-3,800 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 12: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder ex-works was quoted near 3,600-3,700 yuan/t, a downgrade.

Oct 12: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted near 3,750-3,820 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 12: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,750-3,800 yuan/t, a downgrade.

Oct 12: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,750 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 12: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-works was quoted at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 12: In Shaanxi, DAP 60% ex-works pickup was quoted at 4,600-4,650 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 12: In the Northeast, DAP 64% ex-works pickup was quoted at 5,000-5,050 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 12: In Hebei, DAP 57% pickup was quoted at 4,050-4,150 yuan/t, a downgrade.

Oct 12: In Hubei, DAP 64% ex-works pickup was quoted at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, a downgrade.

Oct 12: In Shandong, DAP 64% ex-warehouse was quoted at 4,600-4,900 yuan/t, a downgrade; 57% platform pickup was quoted at 4,000-4,100 yuan/t, a downgrade.