October 14 Phosphate Daily: Weakening Cost Support, Phosphate Market Runs Weak

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

Based on FDD data: on Oct 14, the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,772.50, stable from the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,050.00, stable from the previous working day; the 58% powder index was 4,350.00, stable from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic MAP market maintained a weak run. On the enterprise side, most plants were still executing earlier orders and continuing floor-price policies; prices from plants and traders were rather chaotic, with actual transactions negotiated. On the market side, supply was ample and the trading atmosphere was stalemated and quiet. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its final stage, market inventory is ample, low-end cargoes are still appearing, and some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises still purchase mainly on rigid need, not rushing to place new orders; market sentiment is relatively cautious and demand remains fairly weak. On the raw material side, today domestic sulfur prices fell sharply; sulfur port inventory remained at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices moved within a narrow range; the phosphate rock market was mostly stable; raw material prices on the cost side fell, weakening support to enterprises. Overall, the MAP market currently maintains a pattern of marginally weakening cost support and sluggish demand recovery, and is expected to stay weak in the short term. Going forward, focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream autumn-fertilizer demand, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Price (yuan/t)

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

Based on FDD data: on Oct 14, the domestic DAP mainstream 64% granular index was 4,591.67, stable from the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,150.00, down 2.35% from the previous working day; the 57% content index was 4,000.00, down 0.31% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic DAP market continued to run weak. On the enterprise side, some enterprises focused mainly on shipping previously placed orders, prices were rather chaotic, low prices kept increasing, and actual transactions remained negotiated. On the market side, bearish sentiment kept spreading. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its final stage, low prices appeared frequently, the trading atmosphere was stalemated and quiet, downstream purchasing was mostly small-lot rigid demand, some traders were under pressure, and market prices drifted lower. On the raw material side, today domestic sulfur prices fell sharply; sulfur port inventory remained at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices moved within a narrow range; the phosphate rock market was mostly stable; raw material prices on the cost side fell, weakening support to enterprises. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak posture in the short term; going forward, focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Diammonium Phosphate Market Price (yuan/t)

Sulfur Market Price:

Based on FDD data: on Oct 14, the domestic sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port (granular) was 6,850 yuan/t, down 200 yuan/t from the previous working day; at Dafeng Port (granular) 6,830 yuan/t, down 200 yuan/t from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port (lump-powder) 6,800 yuan/t, down 200 yuan/t from the previous working day; Dafeng Port (lump-powder) 6,780 yuan/t, down 200 yuan/t from the previous working day; East China solid 7,200 yuan/t, stable from the previous working day; East China liquid 6,485 yuan/t, down 660 yuan/t from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, the domestic sulfur market ran weak and downward. On the port side, granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports came under pressure and weakened today. News of low-priced domestic East China cargoes kept spreading in the market, directly weighing on sentiment; participants' wait-and-see sentiment heated up, and overall trading turned cold. Holders' selling sentiment loosened, actively lowering offers, with a stronger willingness to sell; although the buy side showed some limited testing and price-pressing behavior, overall willingness to enter was low, buyer and seller stalemated, and substantive deals were few. Liquid sulfur in Shandong continued its downward trend. Some East China refineries accumulated inventory with heavy destocking pressure, and their concession selling exceeded market expectations, driving Shandong refinery quotes to follow lower; the regional weakness has not yet reversed. Downstream generally has the "buy rising, not falling" mentality, purchasing mostly stays prudent, rigid-need follow-through is insufficient, and market trading is subdued. Some refineries have a strong destocking urge and negotiate concession sales of solid sulfur to outside buyers; combined with logistics-related costs transmitted to ports, this further suppresses in-port buyers' willingness to enter; port buying interest retreated on the sidelines, market confidence weakened, and the price center shifted down accordingly. In the morning session, port trading was sparse overall with no obvious deals reported. After low-priced liquid and solid sulfur offers from domestic refineries emerged, market participants generally chose to wait and see, with no large volumes concluded yet, but the port quote center has already been pushed down. The sharp fall in domestic resource prices continues to amplify port traders' wait-and-see sentiment, and the short-term market is prone to extending this bearish expectation. If the current weak pattern persists, sulfur prices still have room to probe further down.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Regional Market Quotation Overview (yuan/t)

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News and Updates:

Oct 14: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted near 3,750-3,850 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 14: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted near 3,900-4,000 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 14: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted near 3,700-3,750 yuan/t, a downgrade.

Oct 14: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder ex-works was quoted near 3,600-3,700 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 14: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted near 3,700-3,820 yuan/t, a downgrade.

Oct 14: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, a downgrade.

Oct 14: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,750 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 14: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-works was quoted at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 14: In Shaanxi, DAP 60% ex-works pickup was quoted at 4,600-4,650 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 14: In the Northeast, DAP 64% ex-works pickup was quoted at 5,000-5,050 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 14: In Hebei, DAP 57% pickup was quoted at 4,000-4,100 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 14: In Hubei, DAP 64% ex-works pickup was quoted at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, stable.

Oct 14: In Shandong, DAP 64% ex-warehouse was quoted at 4,600-4,900 yuan/t, stable; 57% platform pickup was quoted at 3,950-4,050 yuan/t, stable.