October 20 Phosphate Daily: Ammonium Phosphates Weak and Steady, Sulfur Divergence Emerges

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 20, the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,728.75, flat versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,050.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 4,216.67, flat versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic MAP market ran on the weak side. On the corporate side, most plants are still executing earlier orders and continuing their guaranteed-price policy; ex-works prices show no obvious change, with firm bids concluded through negotiation. On the market side, environmental inspections at some units have reduced supply somewhat, but trading sentiment remains stalemated and light. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually drawing to a close, market inventories are ample, low-end material is still appearing, and some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises continue to buy on rigid demand only, not rushing to place new orders; market sentiment is fairly cautious and demand remains weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to fall today; sulfuric acid prices held steady for the time being; the phosphate rock market was broadly stable; and with raw material prices on the cost side continuing to decline, support for enterprises has weakened. Overall, the MAP market currently shows a pattern of marginally weakening cost support alongside feeble demand recovery, and is expected to remain weak in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream autumn-fertilizer demand, and how geopolitical developments transmit to the cost side.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 20, the domestic mainstream DAP 64% granular index was 4,786.67, down 8.33 from the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,150.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 3,975, down 13.64 from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic DAP market continued to run on the weak but steady side. On the corporate side, some enterprises are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders; market prices are rather disordered, low offers keep increasing, and firm bids remain subject to negotiation. On the market side, bearish sentiment continues to spread. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its closing stage, low prices are frequent, trading sentiment is stalemated and light, downstream procurement is mostly confined to small-lot rigid demand, some traders are under pressure, and market prices are drifting lower. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to fall today; sulfuric acid prices were steady to slightly softer; the phosphate rock market was broadly stable; and with raw material prices on the cost side having declined, support for enterprises has weakened. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain on the weak side in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 20, the domestic sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port for granular was 5,600 yuan/t, down 200 yuan/t from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular was 5,580 yuan/t, down 200 yuan/t; Zhenjiang Port lump/powder was 5,550 yuan/t, down 200 yuan/t; Dafeng Port lump/powder was 5,530 yuan/t, down 200 yuan/t; East China solid was 5,600 yuan/t, down 1,000 yuan/t; and East China liquid was 5,250 yuan/t, down 750 yuan/t.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic sulfur market continued its weak trend, though ports and inland diverged somewhat. On the port side, sulfur quotations at Yangtze River ports continued to weaken today; neither supply nor demand showed clear intentions, wait-and-see sentiment is heavy, and overall trading is quiet. Holders' selling stance loosened and they actively lowered offers; the buying side continued its tentative price-pressing, and overall willingness to enter the market remains low in a downtrend. In Shandong, the liquid sulfur market improved slightly; some East China refineries have accumulated inventories and still face destocking pressure, but the market shows signs of improvement after sustained price cuts, and local refinery auction transactions have improved somewhat. Some enterprises, having presold a large volume earlier, have significantly cut back on releases; combined with the active release of rigid demand from downstream and traders, market trading sentiment has improved markedly from earlier, with a noticeable premium appearing. Overall, downstream procurement remains cautious, the sustainability of rigid-demand releases is limited, and the expectation for improved trading sentiment is insufficient. Port trading overall is thin, with no notable deal rumors for now. After domestic refineries released low-priced offers for liquid and solid sulfur, the market shows some purchasing-repair sentiment, but scale and sustainability still cannot justify excessive optimism. With domestic resource prices stabilizing, temporarily watch whether port traders' holding sentiment can recover; but absent matching demand strength, the market may remain in weak oscillation for the time being.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News Roundup:

October 20: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,750-3,850 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,800-3,850 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,700-3,750 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream ex-works 55% powder was around 3,600-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivered was around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,750 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-works was around 3,600-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In Shaanxi, DAP 60% ex-works on pickup basis was quoted at 4,100-4,150 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In the Northeast, DAP 64% ex-works on pickup basis was quoted at 5,000-5,050 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In Hebei, DAP 57% on pickup basis was quoted at 3,850-4,050 yuan/t, holding steady.

October 20: In Hubei, DAP 64% ex-works on pickup basis was quoted at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 20: In Shandong, DAP 64% ex-warehouse on pickup basis was quoted at 4,600-4,900 yuan/t with quotations holding steady; 57% on pickup basis at station was quoted at 3,900-4,000 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.