Oct 26 Phosphate Daily: Weak and Steady Tone Persists as Market Awaits Demand Expectations

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on October 26 the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,697.50, flat versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,000.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 4,200.00, flat versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic MAP market ran weak and steady. On the enterprise side, most plants are still executing earlier orders, producer prices have shown no obvious change for now, and actual transactions are concluded through negotiation. On the market side, supply has declined somewhat, but follow-through in new orders is ordinary and the trading atmosphere is deadlocked and thin. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its final stage, market inventories are ample, low-end material is still appearing, and purchases by some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises remain focused on rigid-demand replenishment; they are in no hurry to place new orders, sentiment is fairly cautious, and demand remains rather weak. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to weaken today; sulfuric acid prices were steady for the time being; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; and continued declines in feedstock costs are weakening support for enterprises. Overall, the MAP market currently remains in a pattern of marginally weakening cost support and sluggish demand recovery; short-term market talk that binary fertilizer exports may be liberalized is providing some sentiment support to prices for now, but the real-world picture is expected to remain weak. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw-material price trends, the pace of downstream stocking demand, and the sentiment transmission from export policy and geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on October 26 the domestic DAP mainstream 64% granular index was 4,786.67, stable versus the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,150.00, stable versus the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 3,975, stable versus the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic DAP market continued to run weak and steady. On the enterprise side, some enterprises are mainly focused on shipping previously committed orders, market prices lack a driver for now, and actual transactions remain subject to negotiation. On the market side, although news that binary fertilizer exports may be liberalized briefly disturbed sentiment, the overall bearish mood has not yet fully eased. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its closing stage, low prices are frequent in the market, the trading atmosphere is deadlocked and thin, downstream purchases are mostly concentrated in small rigid-demand lots, some traders are under sentiment pressure, and overall quotations are mainly weak and steady. On the raw-material side, the decline in domestic sulfur port prices slowed today and refinery quotations steadied and repaired somewhat; sulfuric acid prices were stable to range-bound; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; and feedstock prices overall are weakening their support for enterprises. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak and steady pattern in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw-material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data estimates, on October 26 the domestic sulfur granular price at Zhenjiang Port was 5,150 yuan/t, down 250 yuan/t versus the previous working day; the granular price at Dafeng Port was 5,130 yuan/t, down 250 yuan/t versus the previous working day; the lump/powder price at Zhenjiang Port was 5,100 yuan/t, down 250 yuan/t versus the previous working day; the lump/powder price at Dafeng Port was 5,080 yuan/t, down 250 yuan/t versus the previous working day; the East China solid price was 5,600 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; and the East China liquid price was 5,355 yuan/t, down 5 yuan/t versus the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic sulfur market ran broadly weak. At the ports, the granular sulfur spot market at Yangtze River ports continued to oscillate and consolidate, the trading atmosphere remained thin, procurement willingness on the demand side is still unclear, buyers are clearly waiting on the sidelines, and some holders have become more willing to sell and have lowered their quotations. Transaction prices in the Shandong liquid sulfur market continued to move up, but the magnitude of gains has narrowed substantially. Recently refinery inventory pressure has been light; combined with low operating rates and limited volumes released through auctions, downstream rigid-demand procurement has kept following through, overall supporting a push higher in market prices. However, after the recent rapid run-up, demand-side willingness to keep chasing higher prices has declined and the trading atmosphere has cooled somewhat. Overall, a cautious mindset persists across the market, and after rigid demand was appropriately released the market is for now watching whether this can be sustained. For the moment the market still cannot form an overly optimistic expectation on the scale and sustainability of demand. In the near term the market is mainly watching whether a recovery in downstream and terminal demand can lift buying sentiment at the ports.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Phosphate Market News Roundup:

October 26: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,750-3,850 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,800-3,850 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Hubei MAP market, the mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powder was around 3,600-3,700 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,680-3,700 yuan/t.

October 26: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,680-3,720 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,650 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-factory was quoted at around 3,550-3,600 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Shaanxi DAP market, 60% ex-works with self-pickup was quoted at 4,100-4,150 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Northeast DAP market, 64% ex-works with self-pickup was quoted at 5,000-5,050 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Hebei DAP market, 57% with self-pickup was quoted at 3,850-4,050 yuan/t, unchanged.

October 26: In the Hubei DAP market, 64% ex-works with self-pickup was quoted at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.

October 26: In the Shandong DAP market, 64% ex-warehouse was quoted at 4,550-4,900 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged; 57% self-pickup at the depot was quoted at 3,900-4,000 yuan/t, with the quotation unchanged.