Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Market Limp and Directionless, Costs Keep Sliding (2026-10-23) 01

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Price Analysis

MAP:

This week the domestic MAP market continued to be weak, with overall prices fluctuating within a limited range. Large producers continued to implement price-guarantee policies, while small plants and traders adjusted quotations flexibly; low-end material from Hubei persisted, and deals were mainly concluded through firm negotiation. Follow-up of new orders was insufficient; the phenomenon of MAP enterprises halting or cutting production continued to increase, the industry operating rate kept declining, and although output contracted, inventory pressure was not yet relieved. The autumn-fertilizer market entered its closing stage, compound-fertilizer enterprise operating loads declined, procurement of raw materials became less urgent, and only some small manufacturers bought on rigid-demand small lots; the Northeast market was cautious and hesitant to stock up, with an overall thin trading atmosphere. Going forward, the focus is on raw-material price trends, downstream compound-fertilizer operating rates, and the progress of winter-stocking restocking.

According to FDD data: this week, the 55% powder index average price was 3,716.25, down 35.00 from last week, or -0.93% week-on-week; the 55% granular index average price was 4,015.00, down 35.00 from last week, or -0.86% week-on-week; the 58% powder index average price was 4,210.00, down 113.33 from last week, or -2.62% week-on-week.

DAP:

This week the domestic DAP market maintained a weak and consolidating posture. Raw-material prices continued to fall sharply, further aggravating market sentiment on the cost side; enterprises mainly executed pending orders, and the sales focus gradually shifted toward winter-storage regions; firm deals in Hubei remained subject to negotiation. As autumn-fertilizer demand entered its final stage, bearish sentiment kept fermenting, current market material was mainly concentrated in grassroots distribution, downstream maintained only small-volume restocking on demand, and low-priced material still existed. Overall, the cost side keeps declining but remains relatively high year-on-year; however, terminal-demand weakness exerts strong suppression, wait-and-see sentiment is thick in the market, and the short-term DAP market may run with weak oscillation. Going forward, the focus is on upstream raw-material trends, grassroots autumn-fertilizer closing progress, and winter-storage restocking.

According to FDD data: this week, the 64% granular index average price was 4,786.67, down 8.33 from last week, or -0.17% week-on-week; the 60% brown index average price was 4,150.00, down 20.00 from last week, or -0.48% week-on-week; the 57% content DAP index average price was 3,975.00, down 37.50 from last week, or -0.93% week-on-week.

1.2 MAP Product Price Comparison

1.3 DAP Product Price Comparison

02 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Plant Operations

03 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operating Rates

3.1 Domestic MAP Industry Operating Rate

According to FDD statistics: this week, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was about 37.50%, down 3.86% week-on-week and down 18.18% year-on-year; the MAP industry operating rate continued to decline within the week, well below the same period last year.

3.2 Domestic DAP Industry Operating Rate

According to FDD statistics: this week, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was about 39.89%, down 3.44% week-on-week and down 12.5% year-on-year; the DAP industry operating rate declined within the week, well below the same period last year.

04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Output Trend

4.1 Domestic MAP Weekly Output Trend

According to FDD statistics: this week, domestic MAP output was about 150,800 t, down 15,500 t from last week, or -9.32% week-on-week and down 31.24% year-on-year; domestic MAP weekly output decreased within the week, well below the same period last year.

4.2 Domestic DAP Weekly Output Trend

According to FDD statistics: this week, domestic DAP output was about 193,900 t, down 16,700 t from last week, or -7.93% week-on-week and down 29.97% year-on-year; domestic DAP weekly output declined slightly within the week, well below the same period last year.

05 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trend

5.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trend

According to FDD statistics: this week, the main port inventory of domestic MAP was about 0 t, flat versus last week.

5.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trend

According to FDD statistics: this week, the main port inventory of domestic DAP was about 29,500 t, flat versus last week.

06 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

MAP: Looking ahead, the MAP market is expected to continue its weak and oscillating pattern, lacking a trend-driven upward catalyst. On the supply side, the industry's units have elastic restart capacity; if order support is insufficient, some enterprises may flexibly cut operating rates, and overall material supply remains relatively ample. On the demand side, domestic autumn-fertilizer demand has essentially ended, compound-fertilizer enterprises' finished-product shipments are under pressure, raw-material procurement continues in a rigid-demand just-in-time mode, large-scale concentrated restocking awaits the landing of winter storage, and winter-storage policy plus grassroots acceptance will become the core variables on the demand side. On the cost side, upstream phosphate rock, sulfur, and sulfuric acid remain soft, providing weak support to the finished product. Overall, the demand side remains the dominant factor in the market, and a clear boost is unlikely in the short term. Going forward, the focus is on single-nutrient fertilizer raw-material price trends, downstream compound-fertilizer operating rates, and the launch pace of the winter-storage market.

DAP: Looking ahead, the DAP market is expected to run mainly weak, with cost support weakening and demand release slowing resonating to push prices lower. On the cost side, phosphate rock's high and firm level forms rigid support; although sulfur prices have retreated from their peak they remain relatively high, and enterprises' production costs are still elevated year-on-year, but the support strength has greatly weakened and can no longer drive prices. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its closing stage, grassroots distribution proceeds slowly, bearish sentiment keeps intensifying, low-priced material keeps emerging, and the negotiation center keeps moving down; only a few brand products hold relatively firm quotations, but new-order deals remain limited, and downstream procurement mostly maintains rigid-demand follow-up. Overall, insufficient demand follow-through remains the dominant factor, and a clear boost is unlikely in the short term. Going forward, the focus is on single-nutrient fertilizer raw-material price trends, downstream compound-fertilizer operating rates, and winter-storage progress.

07 Sulfur Market Analysis

7.1 Sulfur Price Analysis

This week the domestic sulfur market continued its soft posture, with a light spot trading atmosphere and cautious market sentiment. At the start of the week bearish sentiment became increasingly evident, and inertial wait-and-see operations basically persisted; holders could only wait passively, the trading atmosphere fell silent, and the market could not change its continuous downward trend. After several days of downward consolidation, merchants finally showed some buying interest, but they still tested prices with inertial downward pressure; among holders there was an intention and operation to ship with the trend, so the market continued to fall, only with a narrower decline than before. Near the weekend, merchants' follow-up sentiment did not continue, the port atmosphere turned quiet, all parties waited inertially, and the market stabilized temporarily. On inventories, domestic port inventories continued to rebound above 1.1 million t; although still low year-on-year, this is a stronger signal of weakening support for high prices; and downstream enterprises' willingness to stock raw materials is weak, mostly just-in-time, and the port-inventory rebound trend has not yet turned. On the demand side, the downstream phosphate-compound-fertilizer industry is in the autumn-fertilizer closing stage, phosphate-fertilizer enterprises' operating rates are weak, they prioritize consuming their own raw-material inventories, and external sulfur procurement demand shrinks; the sulfuric acid industry's follow-through is limited, mainly rigid-demand procurement, with no concentrated restocking for the time being. On the external side, international shipping resource demand is sluggish, and suppliers are forced to accept buyers' low prices to digest the spot material in hand. Fertilizer enterprises in North Africa, Brazil, China and elsewhere saw declining operating rates, and Indonesian nickel-smelting enterprise operating rates also fell short of the same period last year; with such a large demand contraction, spot prices keep being eroded. On the China side, news of negotiations on USD resources remains absent. Overall, downstream phosphate-fertilizer demand has entered a gap period, and other new-energy and chemical demand is also weak, making it hard to form strong support; the short-term sulfur market maintains a weak and consolidating pattern. Going forward, the focus is on international sulfur contract prices, port arrivals, downstream phosphate-compound-fertilizer operating rates, and winter-storage raw-material restocking pace.

According to FDD data: on October 23, the domestic sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port for granular was 5,400 yuan/t, down 875 yuan/t from last week; Dafeng Port granular was 5,380 yuan/t, down 875 yuan/t; Zhenjiang Port lump/powder was 5,350 yuan/t, down 875 yuan/t; Dafeng Port lump/powder was 5,330 yuan/t, down 875 yuan/t; East China solid was 5,600 yuan/t, down 1,000 yuan/t; and East China liquid was 5,360 yuan/t, down 640 yuan/t.

7.2 Sulfur Product Price Comparison

08 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to FDD statistics: this week, the main port inventory of domestic sulfur was about 1,103,800 t, down 20,400 t from last week, or -1.81% week-on-week.

09 Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

9.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, China's sampled sulfur output data was 216,500 t, with a capacity utilization rate of 50.59%, down 0.15% from last week.

9.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

This week, East China's sampled weekly sulfur output data was 43,100 t, down 700 t from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 44.82%, down 0.73% from last week.

9.3 East China Capacity Utilization Rate

According to FDD statistics: this week, the domestic sulfur East China operating rate was about 45.55%.

9.4 Solid Sulfur Arrival Volume

According to FDD statistics: as of now, the planned October import solid-arrival volume at major national ports is tentatively 135,000 t.