October 12 International Fertilizer & Agriculture News

Brazil September Inflation Rises to 4.58%

Brazil's inflation climbed to 4.58% year-on-year in September, driven mainly by higher transport and food-and-beverage costs, with prices broadly rising. Brazil's statistics agency IBGE reported Friday that the consumer price index, the IPCA, advanced further from 4.22% in August. The reading slightly exceeded the Central Bank of Brazil's target range of 1.50%–4.5%. Food-and-beverage costs rose 4.66% year-on-year in September versus 3.53% in August. Transport costs rose to 3.94% year-on-year from 3% in August. Driven by higher international fuel prices amid the Gulf conflict in the Middle East, automotive fuel inflation rose from 4.41% to 4.97%. Housing inflation eased, falling to 4.22% year-on-year from 4.9% the prior month, partly because the Itaipu subsidy program — launched in July to reduce electricity bills for residential and rural users — expired. Personal consumption expenditure inflation slowed from 6.16% to 5.9%. Brazil's central bank expects full-year 2026 inflation to reach 5%, above its 1.5%–4.5% target range. Brazil's economic growth has picked up, expanding 2% year-on-year in the second quarter versus 1.8% in the prior quarter; the economy had peaked at a recent high of 4.1% in the third quarter of 2024 before pulling back. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Brazil moved its benchmark rate to 13.75% in late September.

Mexico September Inflation Rises to 3.45%

Mexico's year-on-year inflation rose to 3.45% in September, the highest level since May, with upward pressure from the non-core price index the main driver as higher fruit and vegetable prices pushed the gauge up. Data from Mexico's statistics institute Inegi showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.45% in September from 3.26% year-on-year in August. Although inflation remains above the central bank's 3% target, the CPI has stayed within the bank's 2%–4% tolerance band since May. September's reading came in slightly below analysts' expectations. Mexico's Banorte and Banamex had previously forecast 3.46% and 3.5%, respectively; after the data, both banks lowered their full-year 2026 overall inflation forecasts from 4.0% to 3.9%. Core inflation continued to ease in September, falling to 3.75% from 3.88% the prior month. By component: goods inflation slowed to 3.21% from 3.41% in August; services inflation eased to 4.27% from 4.33%. The pickup in headline inflation came mainly from the more volatile non-core price index, which jumped to 2.45% year-on-year from 1.13% in August, chiefly because fresh fruit and vegetable prices accelerated to an 8.78% year-on-year gain from 4.1%. Energy also lifted non-core inflation, with energy inflation surging to 1.48% from 0.81%. Although the Mexican government capped retail prices of LPG, regular gasoline and diesel to cushion price volatility from the US–Iran conflict, it still failed to fully contain energy-price increases. Uncontrolled premium gasoline held year-on-year inflation at 11% in September. Transport prices rose at a faster pace, to 3.51% from 3.43% in August; housing and utilities inflation rose to 3.33% from 3.06%. In contrast, restaurant-and-hotel inflation eased slightly to 6.19% from 6.27%. Inegi said that on a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose 0.42% in September, a clear acceleration from August's 0.20% monthly gain.