October 15 International Forex News

Spot Gold Recovers Most Losses Since US CPI Report

October 15 — Spot gold rose 1% during the Asian session to trade at US$4,146 per ounce, roughly recovering all of the losses since yesterday's release of the US CPI report.

Treasury Yields Spike Then Retreat After CPI as Market Weighs Inflation Data and Fed Comments

October 15 — In overnight US trading, Treasury prices rebounded sharply, reversing the sell-off triggered earlier by the latest hotter inflation readings, and yields on most maturities turned lower. This highlights the market's tug-of-war between two narratives: on one side, continually accelerating consumer-price data; on the other, Fed officials signaling they are in no rush to hike further. Official US data showed September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, above the market consensus of 3.6%. After the release, the 2-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest in more than two weeks before retreating from intraday highs along with longer-dated yields. Traders' implied probability of a Fed rate hike in October rose from 22% before the data to about 40%, and had fallen back to 33% as of press time. Brooks, a US rates strategist at TD Securities, said the moves in hike odds and bond yields are likely closely tied to the dovish remarks made recently by several officials including New York Fed President Williams and Fed Vice Chair Jefferson. Brooks said that for now, a roughly 50/50 probability of an October hike "seems quite reasonable," because the data may be sending one signal while the Fed is sending another.