October 19 Phosphate Daily: Ammonium Phosphates Stay Weak but Steady, Sulfur Slumps Again

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 19, the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,728.75, flat versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,050.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 4,216.67, flat versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic MAP market continued to run on the weak side. On the corporate side, most plants are still executing earlier orders and continuing their guaranteed-price policy; ex-works prices show no obvious change, with firm bids concluded through negotiation. On the market side, environmental inspections at some units have reduced supply somewhat, but trading sentiment remains stalemated and light. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually drawing to a close, market inventories are ample, low-end material is still appearing, and some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises continue to buy on rigid demand only, not rushing to place new orders; market sentiment is fairly cautious and demand remains weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to fall today; sulfuric acid prices held steady for the time being; the phosphate rock market was broadly stable; and with raw material prices on the cost side continuing to decline, support for enterprises has weakened. Overall, the MAP market currently shows a pattern of marginally weakening cost support alongside feeble demand recovery, and is expected to remain weak in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream autumn-fertilizer demand, and how geopolitical developments transmit to the cost side.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 19, the domestic mainstream DAP 64% granular index was 4,786.67, down 8.33 from the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,150.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 3,975, down 13.64 from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic DAP market continued its weak consolidation. On the corporate side, some enterprises are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders; market prices are rather disordered, low offers keep increasing, and firm bids remain subject to negotiation. On the market side, bearish sentiment continues to spread. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its closing stage, low prices are frequent, trading sentiment is stalemated and light, downstream procurement is mostly confined to small-lot rigid demand, some traders are under pressure, and market prices are drifting lower. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices continued to fall today; sulfuric acid prices were steady to slightly softer; the phosphate rock market was broadly stable; and with raw material prices on the cost side having declined, support for enterprises has weakened. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain on the weak side in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 19, the domestic sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port for granular was 5,800 yuan/t, down 475 yuan/t from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular was 5,780 yuan/t, down 475 yuan/t; Zhenjiang Port lump/powder was 5,750 yuan/t, down 475 yuan/t; Dafeng Port lump/powder was 5,730 yuan/t, down 475 yuan/t; East China solid was 6,600 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; and East China liquid was 6,000 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic sulfur market continued its weak downward trend. On the port side, sulfur quotations at Yangtze River ports continued to weaken sharply today. Domestic material fell sharply in price over the weekend, directly denting market sentiment; participants' wait-and-see mood intensified and overall trading became quiet. Holders' selling stance loosened and they actively lowered offers; although the buying side showed a small amount of tentative price-pressing, overall willingness to enter the market was low, buyers and sellers remained locked in a stalemate, and substantive deals were few. Liquid sulfur in the Shandong region continued its downward path. Some refineries in East China have accumulated inventories and face heavy destocking pressure; their concessional selling exceeded market expectations and drove Shandong refineries to cut offers in tandem, and the region's weak pattern has not yet reversed. Downstream buyers generally follow a buy-on-rising, not-falling mentality; procurement remains prudent, rigid-demand follow-through is insufficient, and trading is light. Some refineries have a strong destocking imperative and are negotiating concessional sales of solid sulfur to outside buyers; combined with logistics-related costs being passed through to the ports, this further suppressed in-port buyers' willingness to enter, port buying interest has retreated to the sidelines, market confidence has weakened, and the market's center of gravity keeps shifting lower. Overall port trading is thin, with no notable deal rumors for now. After domestic refineries released low-priced offers for liquid and solid sulfur, market participants generally chose to stand aside and wait, and no large volumes have yet changed hands, but the in-port quotation center has already been dragged down. The sharp fall in domestic resource prices continues to amplify port traders' wait-and-see mood, and the market is prone to extending this bearish expectation in the short term. If the current weak pattern persists, sulfur prices may still have room to probe lower.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News Roundup:

October 19: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,750-3,850 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,800-3,850 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,700-3,750 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream ex-works 55% powder was around 3,600-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivered was around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,750 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-works was around 3,600-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In Shaanxi, DAP 60% ex-works on pickup basis was quoted at 4,100-4,150 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In the Northeast, DAP 64% ex-works on pickup basis was quoted at 5,000-5,050 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In Hebei, DAP 57% on pickup basis was quoted at 3,850-4,050 yuan/t, lower.

October 19: In Hubei, DAP 64% ex-works on pickup basis was quoted at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 19: In Shandong, DAP 64% ex-warehouse on pickup basis was quoted at 4,600-4,900 yuan/t with quotations holding steady; 57% on pickup basis at station was quoted at 3,900-4,000 yuan/t, lower.