October 21 Phosphate Daily: Phosphates Hold Steady Amid Wait-and-See; Sulfur Sentiment Repairs

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 21, the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,728.75, flat versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,050.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 4,216.67, flat versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic MAP market mainly ran steady. On the corporate side, most plants are still executing earlier orders, and ex-works prices show no obvious change, with firm bids concluded through negotiation. On the market side, supply has declined somewhat, but follow-up of new orders is average and trading sentiment remains stalemated and light. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually drawing to a close, market inventories are ample, low-end material still appears, and some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises continue to buy on rigid demand only, not rushing to place new orders; market sentiment is fairly cautious and demand remains weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices today show a temporarily-stable but divergent trend, with the decline pausing for the moment; sulfuric acid prices held steady for the time being; the phosphate rock market was broadly stable; and with raw material prices on the cost side continuing to decline, support for enterprises has weakened. Overall, the MAP market currently shows a pattern of marginally weakening cost support alongside feeble demand recovery; in the short term, news that binary fertilizer exports may be loosened is temporarily providing some sentiment support to prices, but in reality the market is expected to remain weak. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream reserve demand, and how export policy and geopolitical developments transmit to the cost side.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 21, the domestic mainstream DAP 64% granular index was 4,786.67, down 8.33 from the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,150.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 3,975, down 13.64 from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic DAP market continued to mainly run steady. On the corporate side, some enterprises are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders, market prices temporarily lack a driver, and firm bids remain subject to negotiation. On the market side, although news that binary fertilizer exports may be opened has briefly disturbed market sentiment, overall pessimistic sentiment has not fully eased. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its closing stage, low prices are frequent, trading sentiment is stalemated and light, downstream procurement is mostly confined to small-lot rigid demand, some traders are under pressure, and overall quotations are weakly steady to softer. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur port prices slowed their decline today, and teapot refinery quotations stabilized and repaired somewhat; sulfuric acid prices were steady to consolidate; the phosphate rock market was broadly stable; and with raw material prices on the cost side having declined overall, support for enterprises has weakened. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak-but-steady trend in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 21, the domestic sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port for granular was 5,550 yuan/t, down 50 yuan/t from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular was 5,530 yuan/t, down 50 yuan/t; Zhenjiang Port lump/powder was 5,500 yuan/t, down 50 yuan/t; Dafeng Port lump/powder was 5,480 yuan/t, down 50 yuan/t; East China solid was 5,600 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; and East China liquid was 5,250 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic sulfur market showed a certain stabilization, with port-inland divergence still continuing. On the port side, the spot market for granular sulfur at the Yangtze River ports fluctuated and consolidated in early trading today, and the improvement at domestic refineries provided some support to port trading sentiment. Buying inquiries emerged, driving a gradual repair of market sentiment. In addition, in the afternoon there were rumors that a term-merchant made purchases and concluded deals smoothly, providing some support to short-term market sentiment. Today the Shandong liquid sulfur market transaction prices continued to move up, with refining auction transaction prices reaching 5,240-5,440 yuan/t. Refineries have almost no inventory pressure, compounded by low operating rates and limited auction volumes, while downstream rigid-demand procurement continues to follow up, collectively supporting the market price push higher. Overall, after the rapid price decline, the improved cost-performance has warmed downstream procurement sentiment, but an overall cautious mindset remains, and after an appropriate release of rigid demand the market is temporarily observing the sustainability issue. The short-term demand scale and sustainability still cannot justify excessive optimism. After domestic resource prices stabilize, temporarily watch whether port traders' holding sentiment can continue to repair; but absent matching demand strength, the market may temporarily remain in weak oscillation.

Specifically, market prices by region are as follows:

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News Roundup:

October 21: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,750-3,850 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,800-3,850 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,700-3,750 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream ex-works 55% powder was around 3,600-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivered was around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivered was quoted at around 3,650-3,750 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-works was around 3,600-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In Shaanxi, DAP 60% ex-works on pickup basis was quoted at 4,100-4,150 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In the Northeast, DAP 64% ex-works on pickup basis was quoted at 5,000-5,050 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In Hebei, DAP 57% on pickup basis was quoted at 3,850-4,050 yuan/t, holding steady.

October 21: In Hubei, DAP 64% ex-works on pickup basis was quoted at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.

October 21: In Shandong, DAP 64% ex-warehouse on pickup basis was quoted at 4,600-4,900 yuan/t with quotations holding steady; 57% on pickup basis at station was quoted at 3,900-4,000 yuan/t, with quotations holding steady.