Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 29: Geopolitical Disruptions Drive Divergence in the Sulfur Market, While Wait-and-See Sentiment Dominates the Phosphate Fertilizer Market

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 29, China’s domestic 55% powder monoammonium phosphate (MAP) index stood at 4,423.75, unchanged from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, unchanged, while the 58% powder MAP index was 4,710.00, also unchanged.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic MAP market continued to trade soft. On the producer side, most plants are still fulfilling prior orders; the 55% grade price edged lower today, with final deals negotiated case by case. On the market side, sentiment remains one where sellers hold firm yet feel helpless, buyers wait and see with caution, and traders hold back supply awaiting gains. On the demand side, some downstream compound-fertilizer producers maintain only minimal rigid-need procurement, with low buying enthusiasm, insufficient new-order follow-through, a narrow downward drift in focus, and a cautious stance. On the raw-material side, the Middle East geopolitical situation remains volatile, with shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz persisting. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated at highs today with a divergent trend. Recently arrived imported sulfur and a modest inventory rebound keep overall levels still relatively low; sulfuric acid prices oscillated soft; phosphate rock held high and stable, so cost-side pressure remains strong. Overall, supported by elevated costs, the MAP market is expected to remain in soft consolidation near term. Going forward, watch closely raw-material price trends, the pace of autumn stocking by downstream compound-fertilizer producers, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 29, China’s mainstream 64% granular diammonium phosphate (DAP) index stood at 4,571.67, unchanged from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, unchanged, while the 57% grade index was 4,432.50, also unchanged.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic DAP market continued to trade in a wait-and-see mode. On the producer side, some producers are focused on shipping prior backlogged orders; market prices showed no significant change; continuously rising raw-material prices provide a solid floor, with final deals remaining negotiated. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remains thick. On the demand side, downstream procurement stays persistently sluggish; downstream compound-fertilizer plants mostly keep low operating rates, with generally weak buying willingness; only sporadic inquiries appear downstream, final-deal follow-through is quite limited, overall trading activity is low, and deals struggle to build effective volume. On the raw-material side, the Middle East geopolitical situation remains volatile, with Strait of Hormuz shipping risks persisting. Domestic sulfur prices consolidated at highs with a divergent trend; recently arrived imported sulfur and a modest inventory rebound keep overall levels still relatively low; sulfuric acid prices oscillated soft; phosphate rock held high and stable; cost-side raw-material prices ran at elevated levels, and cost pressure kept mounting, lending the market strong support. Overall, the DAP market is expected to hold a consolidation pattern near term; going forward, watch raw-material price moves, downstream demand follow-through, and later export-policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 29, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at RMB 9,170.00/tonne, down 0.11% from the previous working day. Granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 9,150.00/tonne, down 0.11%. Powder and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 9,120.00/tonne, down 0.11%, while powder and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 9,100.00/tonne, also down 0.11%. Solid sulfur in East China was priced at RMB 9,300.00/tonne, unchanged, while liquid sulfur in East China rose 3.71% to RMB 9,220.00/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic sulfur market overall showed high-level consolidation with regional divergence. The geopolitical situation remains volatile, and sentiment holds a cautious tug-of-war amid mixed long and short factors. On the supply side, the Middle East conflict's disruption to the global sulfur supply chain persists, and Strait of Hormuz flows remain the core variable. Although some Middle East cargoes have recently arrived to fill regional gaps, national port inventories stay relatively low, leaving supply support intact. In imports, Yangtze-River-port granular sulfur traded soft, wait-and-see sentiment kept spreading, intended buying interest was mediocre, and the trading atmosphere was flat. The domestic market showed sharp regional divergence: Shandong, lifted by industrial-trade buying sentiment, saw low-end entries drive demand and notable premium deals; the Northwest saw reduced auction volumes and slower downstream buying with no deal improvement; the Northeast held steady. Demand-side support is overall weak. With the consumption off-season underway, the phosphate-fertilizer and titanium-dioxide industries are thinly profitable, rigid-need procurement dominates, and high sulfur prices are forcing downstream to adjust raw-material mixes. Still, the autumn phosphate stocking cycle is nearing, and rigid-need expectations underpin prices. Looking ahead, the sulfur market is expected to keep oscillating at high levels near term. Until geopolitical risks fully clear, low port stocks and autumn rigid-need expectations will keep a floor under prices, but downstream substitute buying and end-user output cuts will keep capping upside. The medium-term path hinges on Middle East developments: if strait passage stays disrupted, tight supply persists and prices hold high; if the situation eases and cargoes arrive in concentrated fashion atop weak demand, prices have room to fall. Watch the Strait of Hormuz passage-recovery pace, import-vessel arrival progress, and the autumn stocking launch.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

July 29: Delivered quotations for 55% powder MAP in Anhui were approximately RMB 4,500-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Delivered quotations for 55% powder MAP in Northeast China were approximately RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Delivered quotations for 55% powder MAP in Henan were approximately RMB 4,430-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Mainstream ex-works quotations for 55% powder MAP in Hubei were approximately RMB 4,350-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Delivered quotations for 55% powder MAP in Jiangsu were approximately RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Delivered quotations for 55% powder MAP in Shandong were approximately RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Delivered quotations for 55% powder MAP in Sichuan were approximately RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Ex-works quotations for 55% powder MAP in Yunnan were approximately RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Ex-works pickup quotations for 60% DAP in Shaanxi were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Ex-works pickup quotations for 64% DAP in Northeast China were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Pickup quotations for 57% DAP in Hebei were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Ex-works pickup quotations for 64% DAP in Hubei were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 29: Ex-warehouse pickup quotations for 64% DAP in Shandong were RMB 4,900-5,000/tonne, with quotations stable. Ex-rail-siding pickup quotations for 57% DAP were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, also stable.