Phosphate Fertilizer Monthly: Limited Demand in Domestic and International Markets Leads to Weak Market Consolidation

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis and Forecast

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Market Price Analysis

This month, the domestic MAP market narrowly adjusted downwards within a stable range, as high prices lacked momentum, leading to a weak downward adjustment. According to FertilePlus data, as of April 29, 2024, the domestic 55% powdered MAP index stood at 2881.25, down 173.75 or 5.69% from the beginning of the month; the 55% granular index was at 3050.00, down 100.00 or 3.17%; and the 58% powdered index reached 3250.00, down 183.33 or 5.34%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic MAP market saw insufficient new orders, with prices continually pressured downwards. The market was weak, with a lackluster trading atmosphere, and enterprises mostly executed pre-received orders with a gradual reduction in shipments. Some enterprises adjusted their prices downwards to attract new orders, but the downstream demand was poor, and the industrial downstream compound fertilizer factories were cautious, continuing to decrease their operations without signs of improved purchasing, leading to lower quotations and a heavy atmosphere for bargaining on purchases.

In the second half of the month, the domestic MAP market continued its downward adjustment, with the trading atmosphere slightly improving and the market receiving a modest boost. Driven by a significant rise in urea prices, the market saw increased inquiries and gradual follow-ups by downstream players, warming up the transactions. Many enterprises implemented new policies and began to enforce minimum guarantee policies. However, due to insufficient new order follow-ups, some enterprises reduced production, leading to a decrease in industry supply, which somewhat curbed the downward price adjustments, improving the trading atmosphere but still showing overall weakness.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Market Price Analysis

This month, the domestic DAP market saw few new orders and weak market operations, with prices making minor downward adjustments. According to FertilePlus data, as of April 29, 2024, the domestic 64% granular DAP index was at 3831.67, down 15.00 or 0.39%; the 60% brown index was at 3450.00, down 10.00 or 0.29%; and the 57% content index stood at 3465.00, down 42.50 or 1.21%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic DAP market had a general atmosphere for transactions, with weak new order transactions and a continuous fall in the focal point of market transactions. At the beginning of the month, as spring planting orders were nearly completed, agricultural purchasing maintained only minimal essential reorders, with new orders limited and enterprises under pressure to receive orders. Several had maintenance plans, leading to a decline in industry operations, reduced production expectations, and a tight supply of some goods, causing the market to oscillate and adjust. Most enterprises subtly lowered their quotations to accept orders, showing weak market operations and price stabilization.

In the second half of the month, domestic DAP spot prices nudged higher in a narrow range, with small fluctuations in market operations, and prices continued to adjust downward. Enterprises mostly executed domestic and international pre-received orders, with stable to slightly falling quotations and transactions negotiated on a case-by-case basis. The market influence from the spring planting purchasing turning from strong to weak led to weary market operations, with mostly essential follow-ups by the downstream, and a cautious purchasing mindset continuing. With reduced cost-side support, enterprises found it difficult to increase their quotations, leading to stable price adjustments in the market with limited fluctuations.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Forecast

Raw Materials:
The phosphate rock market was sluggish this month, with weakened downstream demand follow-up and light market transactions, expecting the phosphate rock market to continue its weak performance next month with a downward price trend. The synthetic ammonia market saw prices rise and then fall within the month, with a severe north-south divide in the trading atmosphere, which was alleviated after south-to-north shipments, leading to prices converging towards the lower end and a weak market adjustment. High-price areas still have room to fall next month. The sulfur market saw a clear upward trend this month, with active purchasing by the demand side and limited spot resources at ports, making low-priced goods hard to find, leading to an upward adjustment in market operations, expecting sulfur prices to continue high and stable next month. Overall, despite the price fluctuations in raw materials, the overall magnitude was small, with limited market changes, expecting next month's cost support to remain stable.

Supply and Demand:
On the supply side, both MAP and DAP enterprises faced pressure in new order transactions this month, with a continuous decline in operations and many factories undergoing maintenance, leading to a downward trend in industry supply. On the demand side, as spring planting concluded and summer corn fertilizer followed up minimally, the off-season affected agricultural purchasing predominantly on an as-needed basis; however, industrial downstream essential needs still existed, with compound fertilizer factories increasing operations and orderly, minimal purchasing following up, maintaining a cautious mindset. Next month, demand follow-ups are expected to be weak, with a reduction in industry supply.

Overall, with upstream cost support weakening the market demand following up minimally at low prices, and supply expected to decrease, the phosphate fertilizer market is anticipated to continue its weak consolidation next month, with prices adjusting slightly downward.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operational Rates

MAP Industry Operational Rate:
As of April 26, 2024, the domestic MAP industry's operational rate was approximately 43.15%, down 19.77% month-over-month, but up 2.90% year-over-year; the MAP industry's operational rate fell within the month but remained above last year's level.

DAP Industry Operational Rate:
As of April 26, 2024, the domestic DAP industry's operational rate was approximately 56.41%, down 3.13% month-over-month, and down 1.84% year-over-year; the DAP industry's operational rate fell within the month and continued below last year's level.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Production Trends

MAP Production Trends:
According to Feidoodoo data, as of April 26, domestic MAP production this month was approximately 863,300 tons, down 230,100 tons or 21.04% month-over-month, but up 419,400 tons or 41.94% year-over-year.

DAP Production Trends:
According to Feidoodoo data, as of April 26, domestic DAP production this month was approximately 1,176,300 tons, down 90,400 tons or 7.14% month-over-month, but up 41,000 tons or 4.10% year-over-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Import and Export Data

MAP Export Data:
According to customs data, in March 2024, China exported 40 tons of MAP, down 18,730 tons or 99.81% year-over-year, and down 1,400 tons or 97.53% month-over-month; the average export price for the month was $798.04 per ton; from January to March 2024, total exports amounted to 99,600 tons, down 434,600 tons or 81.35% year-over-year.

MAP Import Data:
According to customs data, in March 2024, China imported 945.25 tons of MAP, up 845.29 tons or 845.63% year-over-year, and up 0.13 tons or 0.01% month-over-month; the average import price for the month was $363.17 per ton; from January to March 2024, total imports amounted to 2,117.60 tons, up 2,017.39 tons or 2,013.16% year-over-year.

DAP Export Data:
According to customs data, in March 2024, China exported 2,620 tons of DAP, down 23,710 tons or 90.07% year-over-year, and up 1,900 tons or 267.37% month-over-month; the average export price for the month was $539.00 per ton; from January to March 2024, total exports amounted to 141,500 tons, down 491,900 tons or 77.66% year-over-year.

DAP Import Data:
According to customs data, in March 2024, China imported 0.10 tons of DAP, down 19.90 tons or 99.50% year-over-year, and down 0.35 tons or 77.65% month-over-month; the average import price for the month was $9,029.70 per ton; from January to March 2024, total imports amounted to 40.80 tons, up 20.60 tons or 102.00% year-over-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Apparent Consumption Data

MAP Apparent Consumption Data:
In March 2024, China's apparent consumption of MAP was 1,093,900 tons, up 352,700 tons or 47.58% month-over-month, and up 374,400 tons or 52.04% year-over-year; from January to March 2024, China's cumulative apparent consumption of MAP was 2,628,600 tons, up 366,400 tons or 16.20% year-over-year.

DAP Apparent Consumption Data:
In March 2024, China's apparent consumption of DAP was 1,240,500 tons, up 97,600 tons or 8.54% month-over-month, and up 263,800 tons or 27.01% year-over-year; from January to March 2024, China's cumulative apparent consumption of DAP was 3,465,100 tons, up 758,500 tons or 28.03% year-over-year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

MAP Port Inventory Trends:
As of April 26, the domestic MAP market's main port inventory was 113,000 tons, up 66,700 tons or 144.06% month-over-month, and up 2,900 tons or 34.52% year-over-year; the domestic MAP market's main port inventory increased within the month.

DAP Port Inventory Trends:
As of April 26, the domestic DAP market's main port inventory was 127,000 tons, up 8,900 tons or 7.54% month-over-month, and down 32,300 tons or 20.28% year-over-year; the domestic DAP market's main port inventory continued to increase within the month.