Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Ample Supply and Weak Demand Weigh on the Market, Keeping Trading Soft and Range-Bound (September 18)
September 19, 2026
FDD-global.com
8593
Guide
Highlights at a glance
Dive into the latest trends in China's phosphate fertilizer market with an in-depth analysis of MAP and DAP price movements, operating conditions, and output levels. Learn about sulfur pricing shifts and port inventory dynamics, and understand the factors influencing the market's outlook in the short term. Discover how cost fluctuations and sluggish demand are shaping the MAP market and why DAP prices are consolidating at high levels. Uncover insights into autumn fertilizer demand, export quota management, and geopolitical impacts. Stay informed about China's sulfur market movements, inventory changes, and production updates to make more informed decisions in this complex environment.
01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis
1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Price Analysis
MAP:
China's MAP market remained under pressure and continued to decline this week. On the cost side, domestic sulfur prices continued to fall, overall port inventories remained low, sulfuric acid prices underwent weak consolidation, and phosphate rock prices remained stable. Raw material prices remain high and continue to provide relatively strong support for producers. On the demand side, demand from some downstream compound fertilizer producers showed no significant improvement. Buyers maintained only small purchases for essential needs, with many waiting for lower-priced raw materials. Purchasing enthusiasm remained weak, new-order transactions were limited, market sentiment remained cautious, and demand continued to be sluggish. Overall, the MAP market is expected to remain weak in the short term. Producers have ample inventories and are generally cutting prices to attract orders, but demand has not improved. Attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace at which downstream compound fertilizer producers begin autumn stockpiling, and the impact of geopolitical developments on costs.
According to FDD data, the average 55% powdered MAP price index was 4,082.25 this week, down 136.50 from last week, representing a decrease of 3.24% week on week. The average 55% granular MAP price index was 4,300.00, down 85.00 or 1.94%. The average 58% powdered MAP price index was 4,416.67, down 133.33 or 2.93%.
DAP:
China's DAP market continued to consolidate this week. On the cost side, domestic sulfur prices continued to decline, overall port inventories remained low, sulfuric acid prices underwent weak consolidation, and phosphate rock remained under pressure at high levels. Raw material prices remain high and continue to provide relatively strong support for producers. On the demand side, as the autumn fertilizer stockpiling window gradually approaches, downstream end-user demand is being released progressively. Product circulation has accelerated compared with the previous period, and the trading atmosphere is showing signs of recovery. However, purchases remain concentrated on small orders for essential needs, and large-scale procurement has yet to begin. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. Attention should focus on raw material price movements, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policies.
According to FDD data, the average 64% granular DAP price index was 4,563.33 this week, unchanged from last week. The average 60% brown DAP price index was 4,600.00, down 20.00 or 0.43% week on week. The average 57% DAP price index was 4,367.50, down 6.00 or 0.14%.
02 Operating Conditions in China's Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
2.1 Operating Conditions in China's MAP Industry
According to FDD data, China's MAP industry operating rate was approximately 48.78% this week, up 0.87 percentage points from last week but down 16.63 percentage points year on year. The MAP industry operating rate increased during the week but remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.
2.2 Operating Conditions in China's DAP Industry
According to FDD data, China's DAP industry operating rate was approximately 44.11% this week, up 0.16 percentage points from last week but down 19.19 percentage points year on year. The DAP industry operating rate increased during the week but remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.
03 Weekly Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Output Trends
3.1 Weekly Domestic MAP Output Trends
According to FDD data, domestic MAP output was approximately 196,100 tonnes this week, up 1.82% from last week but down 22.76% year on year. Weekly domestic MAP output increased but remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.
3.2 Weekly Domestic DAP Output Trends
According to FDD data, domestic DAP output was approximately 214,400 tonnes this week, up 0.37% from last week but down 28.22% year on year. Weekly domestic DAP output increased but remained below the level recorded in the same period last year.
04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends
4.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trends
According to FDD data, MAP inventories at China's major ports were approximately zero tonnes this week, unchanged from last week.
4.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trends
According to FDD data, DAP inventories at China's major ports were approximately 29,500 tonnes this week, unchanged from last week.
05 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook
MAP:
Looking ahead, the MAP market is expected to remain weak and under pressure. On the cost side, firm phosphate rock prices at high levels provide rigid downside support for MAP. Sulfur and sulfuric acid markets are weak, while synthetic ammonia trends vary by region, leaving overall cost support somewhat weaker than before. However, producers purchasing raw materials externally remain close to an inverted cost structure. Continued losses are suppressing their willingness to operate, meaning cost conditions still constrain the market's downside. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer stockpiling is progressing slowly. Compound fertilizer producers have high finished-product inventories and low operating rates, while raw material purchases are limited to small orders for essential needs. Agricultural input distributors are purchasing only as needed and lack motivation for concentrated restocking. Overall, downside cost support and weak demand remain in competition. MAP is likely to continue fluctuating weakly, with insufficient demand limiting its rebound potential and cost support restricting the scope for a steep decline. Attention should focus on the pace of autumn fertilizer demand and the implementation of export quotas.
DAP:
Looking ahead, the DAP market is expected to consolidate at high levels. Rigid cost support and the slow release of demand remain in competition, leaving limited room for a steep decline but insufficient drivers for further gains. On the cost side, firm phosphate rock prices at high levels provide rigid support. Although sulfur prices have retreated from their peaks, they remain relatively high, keeping production costs elevated. However, marginal cost support has weakened compared with the previous period, reducing its upward influence on prices. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer shipments at the grassroots level have improved, and distribution to local markets has accelerated. However, downstream acceptance of high prices remains limited, and actual transaction volumes are insufficient. Compound fertilizer producers continue to purchase raw materials only in small quantities for essential needs and lack motivation for concentrated restocking. Export applications have returned to normal, while the domestic-overseas price differential provides some support. Nevertheless, recovery remains limited under quota management and provides only modest relief to domestic supply and demand. Overall, DAP is expected to remain deadlocked at high levels in the short term. Attention should focus on autumn fertilizer shipments, sulfur price trends, and export quota implementation.
06 Sulfur Market Analysis
6.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis
China's sulfur market traded weakly overall this week. Port spot prices continued to decline, pessimistic wait-and-see sentiment spread across the market, and trading activity remained subdued. Spot buyers remained cautious, with only sporadic inquiries for essential needs. Buyers commonly pressed for lower prices, causing the market's quotation center to continue moving downward. Although domestic sulfur fundamentals remained relatively tight, continued declines in port spot prices reduced transaction activity. The overall market consequently softened in line with external trends.
Regional market trends diverged noticeably. Sulfur prices in Northeast China moved in both directions. Early in the week, positive support from external markets strengthened regional conditions. Downstream restocking activity increased, while distant customers entered the market, providing strong momentum for price increases. During the second half of the week, however, shipments slowed and support for higher prices weakened. Market participants lacked confidence in the outlook, regional auctions were subdued, and prices gradually came under pressure.
The sulfur market in Northwest China declined overall. Demand from distant markets was satisfactory early in the week, and shipments of some cargoes remained steady. However, lower-quality cargoes received limited market acceptance and auction results fell short of expectations. From midweek onward, weakness in the port market continued to spread inland. Regional production and supply increased while downstream demand follow-up remained weak. Bullish sentiment quickly faded, auctions in several locations failed to attract bids, and regional prices continued to decline.
The Shandong liquid sulfur market fluctuated at high levels, rising early in the week, stabilizing at midweek, and retreating toward the weekend. Auction activity was strong early in the week as downstream restocking demand and purchases from other regions were released simultaneously. Despite a slight increase in supply, tight fundamentals continued to push the market higher. Conditions stabilized around midweek, with downstream buyers making sporadic replenishment purchases as needed. Overall shipments proceeded smoothly, although transactions for a few cargoes encountered difficulties, leaving the market weak but stable. Approaching the weekend, trading activity cooled significantly, downstream auction participation fell sharply, unsuccessful auctions became more frequent, and producers encountered greater shipment difficulties, causing the market's price center to edge lower.
The sulfur market in East China fluctuated overall. Regional supply volumes increased, while downstream buyers continued to purchase only for essential needs and showed no concentrated restocking activity. Combined with the negative transmission of continued port-market weakness, this caused regional trading activity to become progressively quieter and prices to weaken accordingly.
Overall, bearish factors held the advantage in this week's sulfur market. Weak demand became increasingly evident, while negative external influences continued to spread. The market is unlikely to gain sufficient momentum to stabilize and recover in the short term and will probably remain weak and range-bound.
According to FDD data, on September 18, the price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,200/tonne, down RMB 500/tonne from last week. Granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,180/tonne, down RMB 500/tonne. Powdered and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,150/tonne, down RMB 500/tonne, while the price at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,130/tonne, down RMB 500/tonne. Solid sulfur in East China was RMB 7,400/tonne, down RMB 300/tonne, while liquid sulfur was RMB 7,400/tonne, down RMB 270/tonne.
07 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis
According to FDD data, sulfur inventories at China's major ports were approximately 926,800 tonnes this week, down 44,100 tonnes from last week, representing a decrease of 4.54% week on week.
08 Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis
8.1 Nationwide Sulfur Output Analysis
China's sampled sulfur output was 208,500 tonnes this week. Capacity utilization stood at 49.06%, up 0.44 percentage points from last week.
8.2 Sulfur Output Analysis in East China
Sampled weekly sulfur output in East China was 42,000 tonnes this week, unchanged from last week. Capacity utilization stood at 43.66%, also unchanged. East China accounted for 20% of the country's total weekly output.
8.3 Capacity Utilization in East China
According to FDD data, the sulfur industry operating rate in East China was approximately 43.66% this week.
8.4 Solid Sulfur Port Arrivals
According to FDD data, as of this week, planned September arrivals of imported solid sulfur at China's major ports temporarily stood at 4,000 tonnes.
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