September 17 Urea Daily Review: Weak Demand and Pre-Holiday Order Pressure Weigh on Futures and Spot Markets

September 20, 2026

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Highlights at a glance

The domestic urea market is experiencing slight declines, with the small-granule urea price index standing at 1,798.18 on September 17. Urea futures are trending weakly, influenced by limited demand, ample supply, and uncertain export expectations. Spot prices remain steady or have slightly decreased across Chinese regions, reflecting an imbalance in supply-demand dynamics. Producers are reducing offers, but downstream buyers, including agricultural and industrial users, continue to purchase only as necessary. With National Day approaching, futures and spot markets are expected to remain range-bound while the long-term impact of export quotas and autumn fertilizer demand unfolds.

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to FDD data, the small-granule urea price index stood at 1,798.18 on September 17, down 1.82 from the previous working day, representing a decrease of 0.10% period on period and an increase of 5.02% year on year.

Urea Futures Market:

The UR2701 urea contract opened at 1,798 today, reaching a high of 1,800 and a low of 1,771. The settlement price was 1,782, while the closing price was 1,778, down 27 from the previous trading day's settlement price, representing a decrease of 1.50%. The Shandong basis for the January contract was +2. Open interest in the January contract decreased by 3,023 lots today to 245,827 lots.

The urea futures market continued its weak downward trend today. Spot producers achieved limited results from cutting prices to secure orders. Downstream buyers continued to purchase only as needed, and new-order transactions were moderate. This failed to provide positive support for the futures market and instead reinforced concerns about pre-holiday order pressure and weak demand. Agricultural stockpiling has yet to begin on a large scale. Compound fertilizer producers and other downstream users are mainly making purchases for essential needs, while industrial users are maintaining low-inventory strategies, leaving actual consumption capacity limited. Supply remains relatively ample, and the positive impact of the previous inventory reduction has largely been absorbed. Although export quotas have been issued, their substantive short-term impact remains limited and is reflected mainly in longer-term expectations. The market lacks new variables capable of driving a breakout, and futures prices may weaken ahead of the spot market. Overall, urea futures lack a clear directional driver in the short term and are caught between export-related sentiment and weak fundamentals. The market is expected to remain weak and range-bound. Attention should subsequently focus on the actual pace of export quota implementation, improvements in spot transactions, and the start of autumn fertilizer demand.

Spot Market Analysis:

The domestic urea spot market traded within a narrow range today. Some producers proactively lowered offers to stimulate shipments and attract orders. However, overall market sentiment remains weak, and lower prices have generated only limited buying interest. Most downstream participants continue to purchase only as needed, while new-order transactions remain moderate. With the National Day holiday approaching, some enterprises are seeking to secure orders before the holiday. Agricultural fertilizer stockpiling, however, has yet to begin on a large scale, while compound fertilizer producers and other downstream industries are still purchasing mainly for essential needs, resulting in insufficient substantive demand. From a supply-demand perspective, market supply remains relatively ample. The previous inventory reduction has already been reflected in prices, and downstream purchasing has slowed following the earlier price increase. Agricultural demand is in an intermittent period, while industrial users are maintaining low-inventory strategies, limiting actual consumption and leaving the market without strong demand-side support. Although export quotas have been issued, their substantive benefits are reflected mainly in longer-term expectations. Domestic urea fundamentals have not improved significantly in the short term, and the market lacks new variables capable of driving a breakout. Overall, amid the short-term supply-demand contest, the market may soften and move lower first. The outlook will continue to depend on the start of downstream demand and the implementation of export quotas.

Overall, the domestic urea spot market is currently trading within a narrow range. On the supply side, overall availability remains ample. Although maintenance at some facilities has caused daily output to retreat slightly from high levels and port deliveries have diverted part of the domestic supply, these developments have not fundamentally changed the loose supply structure. On the demand side, agricultural demand is in an intermittent period and purchasing has yet to be released on a concentrated basis. Compound fertilizer producers and other industrial downstream users have high finished-product inventories and low operating rates. They continue to operate with low inventories and remain cautious about purchases, placing only small replenishment orders for essential needs, which is insufficient to create strong demand support. Current fundamentals reflect a contest between positive long-term export expectations and weak short-term conditions. Support from the issuance of export quotas is reflected mainly in longer-term expectations and is unlikely to materially change fundamentals in the short term. The market lacks new drivers capable of producing a breakout. Future attention should focus on changes in downstream purchasing, the actual fulfillment of export orders, and progress in autumn fertilizer stockpiling.

By region, prices in Northeast China remained stable at RMB 1,790-1,810/tonne. Prices in East China fell to RMB 1,750-1,830/tonne. Prices in Central China remained stable at RMB 1,750-1,920/tonne. Prices in North China rose to RMB 1,630-1,860/tonne. Prices in South China remained stable at RMB 1,800-1,860/tonne. Prices in Northwest China remained stable at RMB 1,860-1,910/tonne. Prices in Southwest China remained stable at RMB 1,660-1,900/tonne.

Market Updates:

September 17: The reference delivered price for urea in Guangzhou, Guangdong, was RMB 1,840-1,850/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

September 17: The reference delivered price for urea in Nanning, Guangxi, was RMB 1,800-1,810/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

September 17: The reference delivered price for urea in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, was RMB 1,780-1,860/tonne, broadly unchanged from the previous working day.

September 17: The reference delivered price for urea in Wen'an, Hebei, was RMB 1,780-1,850/tonne, broadly unchanged from the previous working day.

September 17: Mainstream reference prices for small- and medium-granule urea in Shangqiu were RMB 1,760-1,800/tonne, while large-granule urea was quoted at approximately RMB 1,990-2,000/tonne.

September 17: Mainstream reference prices for small- and medium-granule urea in Jingmen were RMB 1,750-1,780/tonne. Temporary self-pickup prices at railway stations were approximately RMB 1,700-1,730/tonne, while mainstream self-pickup prices for large-granule urea were RMB 1,880-1,920/tonne.

September 17: The reference ex-warehouse/truck-loading price in Tieling, Liaoning, was RMB 1,790-1,810/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

September 17: The reference delivered price for urea in Heze, Shandong, was approximately RMB 1,750-1,770/tonne, down RMB 10/tonne from the previous working day.

September 17: The reference delivered price for urea in Linyi, Shandong, was RMB 1,770-1,790/tonne, down RMB 10/tonne from the previous working day.

September 17: The mainstream reference price in Xianyang was RMB 1,800-1,820/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

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September 17 Urea Daily Review: Weak Demand and Pre-Holiday Order Pressure Weigh on Futures and Spot Markets