Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Limited Market Demand, Enterprises Gradually Introduce Minimum Guarantee Policies

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis:

Price Analysis:

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):

According to data from Feidoodoo, this week, the average price index for 55% powder was 2921.25, down by 20.63 or 0.70% week-over-week; the average price index for 55% granular was 3110.00, down by 40.00 or 1.27%; the average price index for 58% powder was 3276.67, down by 26.11 or 0.79%.

This week, domestic MAP prices continued to adjust downwards, with a subdued market atmosphere and stable trading conditions, making a short-term turnaround difficult. On the corporate side, many companies implemented minimum guarantee policies, with new policies being introduced throughout the week. Market prices continued to be inverted, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated individually. In the market, driven by significant urea price increases, inquiries increased, leading to a warmer trading atmosphere throughout the week and an overall improvement from earlier periods. On the supply side, new orders for businesses remained under pressure, with ongoing declines in production and numerous factory shutdowns for maintenance, leading to reduced industry supply. On the demand side, with the spring plowing season ending and the timing for summer fertilizer stockpiling pushed back, new order follow-ups were limited; downstream industrial compound fertilizer shipments were slow, and raw material purchases maintained at minimal necessary levels, continuing the low demand trend.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index for 64% granular was 3838.33, down by 5.00 or 0.13%; the average price index for 60% brown was 3450.00, down by 8.33 or 0.24%; the average price index for 57% DAP was 3465.00, down by 14.58 or 0.42%.

This week, domestic DAP prices fluctuated, with local market spot prices experiencing narrow increases. The market operated with minor fluctuations. On the corporate side, domestic orders followed up in small amounts, and international shipments continued, with corporate quotes adjusting and actual transaction prices remaining largely stable but slightly fluctuating. In the market, the trading atmosphere was stable, with limited new order follow-ups and a continued weak sentiment for consolidation, leading to overall market stabilization. On the supply side, DAP industry production slightly increased this week, maintaining high operational levels with some units planning maintenance and a potential decline in industry operation expected. On the demand side, as spring plowing is concluding, there's a stable transaction atmosphere for agricultural immediate needs; downstream industrial factory demand is weak, with only minimal necessary purchases.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operations:

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Industry Operations:

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the domestic MAP industry's operating rate was about 46.00%, down by 5.63% week-over-week but up by 12.90% year-over-year; although the MAP industry's operating rate fell this week, it remained higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Industry Operations:

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the domestic DAP industry's operating rate was about 57.51%, up by 1.39% week-over-week and up by 5.42% year-over-year; the DAP industry's operating rate increased this week, continuing to be higher than last year's level.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trends:

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Weekly Production Trends:

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, domestic MAP production was about 179,600 tons, down by 10.91% week-over-week but up by 39.01% year-over-year; although domestic MAP weekly production fell this week, it was still higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Weekly Production Trends:

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, domestic DAP production was about 276,900 tons, up by 2.48% week-over-week and up by 6.79% year-over-year; domestic DAP weekly production increased this week, continuing to be higher than last year's level.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends:

Domestic Monoammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trends:

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, domestic MAP main port inventory was about 113,000 tons, unchanged week-over-week and up by 20.21% year-over-year.

Domestic Diammonium Phosphate Port Inventory Trends:

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, domestic DAP main port inventory was about 140,100 tons, unchanged week-over-week and up by 5.10% year-over-year.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Future Forecast:

Monoammonium Phosphate:

Overall, the current MAP market is weak, with limited downstream follow-up and numerous companies rolling out related policies, many units stopping production to reduce output, making a short-term demand improvement unlikely. MAP market prices are expected to continue to consolidate next week.

Diammonium Phosphate:

Overall, the current DAP market is nearing the end of spring plowing, with limited immediate demand follow-up, partial market supply appearing tight, and spot prices rising slightly. Corporate quotes are mostly stable, continuing domestic and international presales, and DAP market prices are expected to continue weakly consolidating next week.