Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Production Reductions and Shutdowns Predominate Amid Off-Season Sales Impact

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

Price Analysis

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index for 55% powdered MAP was 2888.75, down 32.50 or 1.11% from last week; the 55% granular price index averaged 3050.00, down 60.00 or 1.93%; and the 58% powdered price index averaged 3266.67, down 10.00 or 0.31%.

This week, domestic MAP prices continued to adjust downwards amid the off-season sales period, with purchasing mostly involving low-price transactions. Some companies implemented minimum guarantee policies that improved order intake, mainly executing pending orders with some able to sustain for a month, leading to a gradual reduction in pre-orders and stable price quotes. The low-priced supplies in the market performed well, but the overall market sentiment remained weak, with actual transaction prices generally declining. Supply was adjusted based on sales, resulting in reduced operational loads and decreased industry supply. Demand was limited, with the spring planting market wrapping up and minimal follow-up in the summer corn fertilizer market, leading to minimal essential purchases in the market this week.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):

According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index for 64% granular DAP was 3833.67, down 4.67 or 0.12%; the 60% brown price index remained stable at 3450.00; and the 57% DAP price index was stable at 3465.00.

This week, domestic DAP prices experienced slight fluctuations and generally stable market operations. Domestic and international demand was moderate, with companies executing a few domestic pre-orders and some export shipments, while internal order supplements followed up minimally. Prices negotiated on the spot were pressured downwards as domestic demand was insufficient and international prices continued to decline, leading to weak and downward-adjusting market conditions. Supply was relatively abundant, with current operations high, though some maintenance is expected soon, which may reduce operations and daily output. Demand was muted, with agricultural needs winding down and industrial demand cautious and limited.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operational Conditions

MAP Industry:

FertilePlus data shows that this week, the MAP industry's operational rate was about 43.15%, down 2.85% from last week but up 11.94% year-on-year, continuing to decline but still above last year's levels.

DAP Industry:

The DAP industry's operational rate was about 56.41%, down 1.10% from last week but up 3.93% year-on-year, also declining this week but remaining above last year's levels.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trends

MAP Production:

This week, domestic MAP production was approximately 168.5 thousand tons, down 6.18% from last week but up 38.23% year-on-year, continuing to decline but remaining above last year's levels.

DAP Production:

This week, domestic DAP production was approximately 271.6 thousand tons, down 1.91% from last week but up 3.98% year-on-year, declining but still above last year's levels.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

MAP Port Inventory:

This week, the main port inventories for MAP were about 113.0 thousand tons, stable from last week but up 34.52% year-on-year.

DAP Port Inventory:

This week, main port inventories for DAP were about 127.0 thousand tons, stable from last week but down 20.28% year-on-year.

Market Forecast for Phosphate Fertilizers

MAP:

Overall, the MAP market is experiencing a reduction in low-priced supplies, remaining in a weakened state with limited demand follow-up. With reduced operations and some support from pending orders, market and enterprise quotes diverge. MAP market prices are expected to remain weakly stable next week.

DAP:

Overall, DAP enterprises are mostly executing previous domestic and international orders with minimal new order follow-up and cautious market demand. The purchasing atmosphere is subdued, and DAP market prices are expected to continue adjusting weakly next week.