Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Sulfur Stuck at High Levels, Phosphate Market Consolidates Weakly (2026-10-10)

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Fertilizer Price Analysis

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):

This week, the domestic MAP market continued to consolidate on a weak tone, with thin trading activity and a persistent long-short tug-of-war. Fresh spot orders were limited and room for negotiation on actual deals widened. On the cost side, upstream phosphate rock, sulfur and sulfuric acid fluctuated, with their support for MAP weakening at the margin. On the demand side, autumn-fertilizer application is gradually winding down; compound-fertilizer producers face sluggish finished-product sales and keep operating rates low, raw-material procurement remains driven by immediate needs on a just-in-time basis, no large-scale concentrated restocking has appeared, and the grassroots winter-storage season has not yet fully started, leaving the market cautious. Overall, costs still provide some floor, but weak downstream demand caps upside; near term, MAP may stay range-bound to the downside. Going forward, watch feedstock price trends, compound-fertilizer operating rates, and winter-stockpiling progress.

According to FDD data estimates: This week, the average price index for 55% powdered MAP was 3,803.33, down 76.25 from last week, or -1.97% WoW; the 55% granular index averaged 4,283.33, down 0.00 (-0.00% WoW); and the 58% powdered index averaged 4,350.00, down 0.00 (-0.00% WoW).

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):

This week, the domestic DAP market held a weak, stalemate pattern, with a slow trading pace and a continuing long-short standoff. Listed offers remained relatively firm, but room for actual-deal negotiation widened and new-order follow-through was insufficient. On the demand side, domestic autumn-sown fertilizer use is gradually entering its final stage and grassroots farmers' purchases are declining; compound-fertilizer producers see poor finished-product sales, keep procurement to immediate needs on a just-in-time basis with limited bulk buying, and the winter-storage market has not yet truly started, leaving players cautious. On the cost side, upstream phosphate rock, sulfur and sulfuric acid fluctuated, with their cost support for DAP weakening at the margin. In summary, costs still provide a floor, but weak end-user demand caps price upside and a cautious atmosphere prevails; near term, DAP may trade range-bound to the downside. Watch upstream feedstock trends, autumn-fertilizer wind-down progress, overseas tender order fulfillment, and winter-stockpiling.

According to FDD data estimates: This week, the average price index for 64% granular DAP was 4,608.33, down 146.67 from last week, or -3.08% WoW; the 60% brown index averaged 4,366.67, down 233.33, or -5.07%; and the 57%-content DAP index averaged 4,137.50, down 137.00, or -3.21%.

1.2 Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Product Price Comparison

MAP Market Prices (RMB/tonne)

1.3 Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Product Price Comparison

DAP Market Prices (RMB/tonne)

02 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Plant Dynamics This Week

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Producers' Maintenance List This Week

03 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Operating Rates

3.1 Domestic MAP Operating Rate

According to FDD data: This week, the domestic MAP industry operating rate was about 45.94%, down 0.45 pct from last week and down 15.69% YoY; the MAP operating rate fell during the week and remained below the same period last year.

3.2 Domestic DAP Operating Rate

According to FDD data: This week, the domestic DAP industry operating rate was about 41.85%, down 0.55 pct from last week and down 17.01% YoY; the DAP operating rate fell during the week and remained below the same period last year.

04 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Output Trends

4.1 Domestic MAP Weekly Output

According to FDD data: This week, domestic MAP output was about 184,700 tonnes, down 0.97% from last week and down 16.61% YoY; weekly MAP output declined during the week and remained below the same period last year.

4.2 Domestic DAP Weekly Output

According to FDD data: This week, domestic DAP output was about 203,400 tonnes, down 1.31% from last week and down 29.52% YoY; weekly DAP output declined during the week and remained below the same period last year.

05 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

5.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory

According to FDD data: This week, main-port MAP inventory was about 0 tonnes, flat versus last week.

5.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory

According to FDD data: This week, main-port DAP inventory was about 29,500 tonnes, flat versus last week.

06 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

MAP: Looking ahead, MAP is expected to extend its weak, range-bound pattern, lacking a trend-driven upward catalyst. On the supply side, the industry retains flexible restart capacity; if order support is insufficient, some producers may flexibly cut operating rates, keeping overall supply relatively ample. On the demand side, domestic autumn-fertilizer demand has essentially concluded; compound-fertilizer producers face shipment pressure and keep procurement on a just-in-time basis, with large concentrated restocking pending the winter-storage rollout — winter-storage policy and grassroots acceptance will be the core demand-side variables. On the cost side, upstream phosphate rock, sulfur and sulfuric acid fluctuate and provide weak support. Overall, demand remains the dominant factor and a near-term meaningful recovery is unlikely. Watch single-nutrient fertilizer price trends, compound-fertilizer operating rates, export-order fulfillment, and winter-stockpiling onset.

DAP: Looking ahead, DAP is expected to consolidate at high levels — rigid cost floors and slow demand release are in a tug-of-war, limiting deep downside while also lacking upward drivers. On the cost side, firm, high-priced phosphate rock forms rigid support; sulfur, though off its peak, remains relatively high, keeping production costs elevated, though marginal support has loosened versus earlier, reducing its upward push. On the demand side, grassroots autumn-fertilizer shipments have improved versus earlier and downstream delivery has accelerated, but end-user acceptance of high prices is limited and actual volume is insufficient; compound-fertilizer producers keep procurement to small rigid orders with little concentrated restocking drive. Export declarations have normalized and the domestic-foreign price gap offers some support, but under quota management the recovery remains limited, easing domestic supply-demand only mildly. Overall, DAP holds a high-level stalemate near term; watch autumn-fertilizer shipment pace, sulfur price trends, and export-quota execution.

07 Sulfur Market Analysis

7.1 Sulfur Price Analysis

This week, the domestic sulfur market traded weak and range-bound amid a persistent long-short standoff, with thin spot trading and a more cautious mood. On the supply side, domestic refinery by-product sulfur output stayed stable and overall domestic supply was steady; on imports, international sulfur prices moved lower and overseas arrival timing fluctuated, with geopolitical and shipping factors continuing to disrupt global sulfur flows, leaving port arrivals uncertain. In inventories, domestic port stocks stayed low, offering a floor; but downstream firms' willingness to stock raw material is weak, mostly just-in-time, port spot digestion slowed and some regions face mild build-up pressure. On the demand side, the downstream phosphate/compound-fertilizer sector is in its autumn-fertilizer wind-down, phosphate producers' operating rates are weak and they prioritize consuming their own inventories, shrinking external sulfur procurement; the sulfuric-acid sector follows tepidly with mainly rigid buying and no concentrated restocking. On the external front, Middle East and Turkish sulfur tenders have landed successively with international prices falling, Asian enquiries are thin and the weak external market has passed through to the domestic side, pressuring domestic spot offers. Overall, low port inventories still support the market, but downstream phosphate demand has entered a lull and cannot provide strong support; the sulfur market is likely to stay weak and range-bound near term. Watch international sulfur contract prices, port arrivals, downstream phosphate operating rates, and winter-stockpiling procurement pace.

According to FDD data estimates: On October 10, domestic sulfur prices were: Zhenjiang Port granule 7,075.00 RMB/tonne (down 25 RMB/tonne WoW); Dafeng Port granule 7,025.00 RMB/tonne (down 55); Zhenjiang Port lump-powder 7,055.00 RMB/tonne (up 5); Dafeng Port lump-powder 7,005.00 RMB/tonne (down 25); East China solid 7,200.00 (flat); East China liquid 7,295.00 (down 50).

7.2 Sulfur Product Price Comparison

Sulfur Quoted Prices by Region (RMB/tonne)

08 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to FDD data: This week, main-port sulfur inventory was about 1,091,200 tonnes, up 127,800 tonnes from last week, or +13.27% WoW.

09 Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

9.1 National Sulfur Output

This week, sampled China sulfur output was 212,800 tonnes with a capacity utilization rate of 50.08%, up 0.39 pct WoW.

9.2 East China Sulfur Output

This week, sampled East China weekly sulfur output was 43,800 tonnes, up 1,800 tonnes from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 45.55%, up 1.89 pct WoW. East China output accounted for 20% of the national total.

9.3 East China Capacity Utilization

According to FDD data: This week, the East China sulfur operating rate was about 45.55%.

9.4 Solid Sulfur Arrival Volume

According to FDD data: As of this week, the planned October import arrivals of solid sulfur at major ports were tentatively 135,000 tonnes.