Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly: Under the Guidance of Supply and Price Stabilization Policies, Market Prices Anticipated to Slightly Decline

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Analysis

Price Analysis of Phosphate Fertilizers

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index of 55% powder was 3495.00, an increase of 20.00 from last week, a 0.58% rise; the average price index of 55% granular remained steady at 3400.00; the average price index of 58% powder was 3670.00, an increase of 53.33, a 1.47% rise.

This week, the MAP market price was mostly stable with slight increases. Regarding production, factories continued to ship pre-received orders, with deliveries planned until mid-to-late December. The pending orders remain large, shipping is tight, and prices are mostly stable. In terms of supply, daily production maintains at a low level, with a continued tight supply situation, providing short-term support for MAP prices. Market-wise, transactions are minimal, and traders are mostly profit-taking, with no significant price fluctuations. In terms of demand, downstream compound fertilizer companies are largely in a wait-and-see mode, with a low purchasing atmosphere in the Northeast market, price inversions, limited new orders, and generally moderate market transactions. As for raw materials, prices of sulfur, synthetic ammonia, and phosphate ore are consolidating at high levels, maintaining support for raw materials.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): According to Feidoodoo data, this week, the average price index of 64% granular was 3880.00, an increase of 1.00, a 0.03% rise; the average price index of 60% brown was 3688.00, a decrease of 72.00, a 1.91% fall; the average price index of 57% DAP was 3610.00, an increase of 12.00, a 0.33% rise.

This week, the DAP market prices were mostly stable. Companies have sufficient pre-received orders, focusing on fulfilling previous export orders, with most domestic companies not quoting or collecting payments yet. Actual new deals are mainly under negotiation, with the market maintaining a high level. In terms of supply, mainstream market supplies are tight, with limited circulating goods, leading to tight supply and rising prices. Currently, domestic factories are focusing on supplying the domestic market, with limited exports, and domestic supplies are gradually being released. Demand-wise, there is significant immediate demand in the winter storage market, and the tight supply situation is expected to continue in the short term. Downstream inquiries are low, with actual purchasing mostly on hold. Currently, market purchasing enthusiasm is relatively low. In terms of raw materials, prices of sulfur, synthetic ammonia, and phosphate ore saw slight declines in the latter half of the week, potentially leading to adjustments in DAP prices.

Future Market Predictions:

• MAP: Overall, the situation of large pending orders at MAP factories continues, with supplies remaining tight and downstream demand persisting. The market center remains high. Under the advocacy of supply and price stabilization policies, price increases are challenging, and next week's MAP market prices are expected to loosen at high levels, with difficulty in rising.
• DAP: Overall, the DAP market demand is good, supported by pending orders from companies, and the tight supply situation continues, which is favorable for DAP market price increases. However, with raw material price adjustments and under the guidance of supply and price stabilization policies, next week's DAP market prices are expected to undergo narrow adjustments and declines.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Operation

Domestic MAP Industry Operation:
This week, the domestic MAP industry's operating rate was about 57.92%, a decrease of 0.10% from last week and an increase of 16.71% year-over-year. The MAP industry's operating rate slightly declined this week but remains higher than the same period last year.

Domestic DAP Industry Operation:
This week, the domestic DAP industry's operating rate was about 49.26%, a decrease of 0.55% from last week and an increase of 8.89% year-over-year. The DAP industry's operating rate slightly declined this week but remains higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Weekly Production Trends

MAP Weekly Production Trend:
This week, domestic MAP production was about 226,200 tons, a 0.18% decrease from last week and a 39.03% increase year-over-year. Domestic MAP weekly production slightly declined this week but remains higher than the same period last year.

DAP Weekly Production Trend:
This week, domestic DAP production was about 247,500 tons, a 1.12% decrease from last week and an 18.42% increase year-over-year. Domestic DAP weekly production slightly declined this week but remains higher than the same period last year.

Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

MAP Port Inventory Trend:
This week, domestic MAP main port inventory was about 45,100 tons, unchanged from last week, and a 64.93% decrease year-over-year.

DAP Port Inventory Trend:
This week, domestic DAP main port inventory was about 247,200 tons, unchanged from last week, and a 21.24% increase year-over-year.