Phosphate Weekly: Weak Stability Unchanged, Waiting on Demand (20261106)

01 Phosphate Market Analysis

1.1 Phosphate Market Price Analysis

This week the domestic MAP market ran weak and steady, with overall price fluctuations limited. Major plants continued to implement floor-price policies while smaller plants and traders adjusted quotations flexibly; low-end cargo remained available in Hubei, and deals were mostly concluded through case-by-case negotiation. New orders were insufficient, more MAP enterprises suspended or cut production, the industry operating rate kept falling, and although output contracted, inventory pressure was still not effectively relieved. After the autumn fertilizer market wrapped up, compound fertilizer enterprises lowered operating loads and became even less eager to purchase raw materials, with only some small plants taking small rigid-demand orders; sentiment in the Northeast market was cautious, restocking willingness was weak, and the overall trading atmosphere was quiet. After the phosphate and compound fertilizer conference over the weekend, bullish news such as exports of binary fertilizer emerged, and the market is watching whether this can be delivered to lift the market. Going forward, focus on raw material price trends, downstream compound fertilizer operating rates, and the pace of winter-storage restocking and the fulfillment of export expectations.

According to FDD data estimates: as of this Friday, the 55% powder price index was 3,661.25 and the 55% granular price index was 3,925.00, both flat versus last Friday; the 58% powder price index was 3,866.67, also flat versus last Friday.

DAP:

This week the domestic DAP market remained in a weak consolidation. Raw material prices continued to fall sharply, further weighing on sentiment at the cost end; enterprises mainly executed pending orders, gradually shifted their sales focus toward winter-storage regions, and deals in Hubei remained on a negotiated basis. As autumn fertilizer demand drew to a close, bearish sentiment persisted; market cargo is currently concentrated in the grassroots distribution stage, downstream buyers are only restocking modestly as needed, and low-priced cargo is still present. Overall, costs continue to decline but remain relatively high year on year, while weak terminal demand exerts strong pressure and a wait-and-see atmosphere is thick; in the short term DAP may trade mainly in a weak range. Going forward, watch whether bullish news can be delivered after the phosphate and compound fertilizer conference to lift the market, and focus on upstream raw material trends, the progress of wrapping up grassroots autumn fertilizer sales, and the pace of winter-storage restocking.

According to FDD data estimates: as of this Friday, the 64% granular price index was 4,716.67, down 53.33 versus last Friday, a week-on-week decline of 1.12%; the 60% brown price index was 4,150.00 and the 57% DAP content price index was 3,875.00, both flat versus last Friday.

1.2 MAP Product Price Comparison

MAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

1.3 DAP Product Price Comparison

DAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

02 Domestic Phosphate Plant Dynamics

Domestic Phosphate Enterprise Maintenance List

03 Domestic Phosphate Industry Operating Rates

3.1 MAP Industry Operating Rate

According to FDD data statistics: this week the domestic MAP industry operating rate was about 34.36%, down 1.19% from last week and down 21.85% year on year; the MAP operating rate continued to decline during the week and is well below the year-earlier level.

3.2 DAP Industry Operating Rate

According to FDD data statistics: this week the domestic DAP industry operating rate was about 33.97%, down 1.81% from last week and down 16.01% year on year; the DAP operating rate fell during the week and is well below the year-earlier level.

04 Domestic Phosphate Weekly Output Trends

4.1 MAP Weekly Output Trends

According to FDD data statistics: this week domestic MAP output was about 138,100 tonnes, down 2,800 tonnes from last week, a decline of 1.99% week on week and 37.82% year on year; MAP weekly output continued to fall during the week and is well below the year-earlier level.

4.2 DAP Weekly Output Trends

According to FDD data statistics: this week domestic DAP output was about 165,100 tonnes, down 8,800 tonnes from last week, a decline of 5.06% week on week and 32.34% year on year; DAP weekly output continued to edge lower during the week and is well below the year-earlier level.

05 Domestic Phosphate Port Inventory Trends

5.1 MAP Port Inventory Trends

According to FDD data statistics: this week the main port inventory of domestic MAP was about 0 tonnes, flat versus last week.

5.2 DAP Port Inventory Trends

According to FDD data statistics: this week the main port inventory of domestic DAP was about 29,500 tonnes, flat versus last week.

06 Phosphate Market Outlook

MAP: looking ahead, MAP is expected to remain in a weak, rangebound pattern, though winter-storage expectations may gradually heat up as time passes and bullish news from the industry conference may affect sentiment, so a bottoming-out and repair cannot be ruled out later. On supply, industry plants have room for flexible restart, and if order support is insufficient some enterprises may flexibly trim operating rates, leaving overall supply still relatively ample. On demand, domestic autumn fertilizer demand is essentially finished, compound fertilizer enterprises are under pressure moving finished goods, raw material purchasing continues on a buy-as-needed basis, and large-scale concentrated restocking awaits the launch of winter storage; winter-storage policy and grassroots acceptance will be the core demand-side variables. On costs, the upstream phosphate rock, sulfur and sulphuric acid markets are soft and provide weak support for finished product. Overall, demand remains the dominant factor, and in the short term watch the industry conference's effect on sentiment. Going forward, focus on single-nutrient fertilizer price trends, downstream compound fertilizer operating rates and the timing of the winter-storage market's launch.

DAP: looking ahead, DAP is expected to run weak and steady, with weakening cost support and slow demand release difficult to resolve for now. On costs, phosphate rock remains firm at high levels and provides rigid support; although sulfur prices have fallen from their peak they remain relatively high, so enterprises' production costs are still above year-earlier levels, but the support has greatly weakened and cannot drive prices higher. On demand, autumn fertilizer is wrapping up, grassroots distribution is advancing slowly, the bearish mood has not yet eased, low-priced cargo is emerging, and the center of bargaining keeps shifting lower; only a few branded products hold relatively firm quotations, but new order business remains limited and downstream purchasing mostly follows rigid demand. Overall, insufficient demand follow-through remains the dominant factor, and in the short term watch whether the industry conference can improve purchasing sentiment. Going forward, focus on single-nutrient fertilizer price trends, downstream compound fertilizer operating rates and the timing of the winter-storage market's launch.

07 Sulfur Market Analysis

7.1 Sulfur Market Price Analysis

This week the domestic sulfur market showed some signs of stabilizing and repairing. Domestically, the port market was mainly rangebound in a narrow band: early in the week, as the downward momentum narrowed, isolated terminal inquiries appeared at the ports, holders did not simply cave in to adjustments, and the resulting negotiations kept the market temporarily stable. News of Middle East November contract prices then emerged, but since the size of the cuts did not exceed market expectations it had no obvious impact on spot trading. In addition, holders were in no hurry to sell, and this stance allowed them to escape a passive position in bargaining with interested buyers, so the market was able to advance with prices held steady for consecutive days. The sustained price stability drew some traders into the market to inquire, holders responded largely by following the market, and the warming trading atmosphere helped prices move upward. Domestically, refineries had little inventory pressure earlier, low prices stimulated some downstream rigid-demand purchasing, sentiment improved and auction activity picked up; but as prices moved back to their highs, downstream willingness to chase gains weakened noticeably, auction activity cooled, prices gave back some gains, and the overall amplitude was similarly limited. Overall, downstream phosphate fertilizer demand is still in an off-season, other demand from new energy and chemicals is likewise weak and cannot provide strong support, and the market remains cautious and wait-and-see. Going forward, focus on international sulfur contract prices, port arrivals, downstream phosphate and compound fertilizer operating rates, and the pace of raw material restocking for winter storage.

According to FDD data estimates: as of this Friday, the domestic sulfur price for granular cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,800 yuan/t, up 50 yuan/t from last week; granular cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,780 yuan/t, up 50 yuan/t; lump and powder cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,750 yuan/t, up 50 yuan/t; lump and powder cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,730 yuan/t, up 50 yuan/t; East China solid sulfur was 5,300 yuan/t, down 300 yuan/t; and East China liquid sulfur was 4,800 yuan/t, down 450 yuan/t.

7.2 Sulfur Product Price Comparison

Sulfur Regional Market Quotations (yuan/t)

08 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Analysis

According to FDD data statistics: this week the main port inventory of the domestic sulfur market was about 1.105 million tonnes, down 6,300 tonnes from last week, a decline of 0.57% week on week.

09 Domestic Sulfur Output Analysis

9.1 National Sulfur Output Analysis

This week China's sample sulfur output was 215,700 tonnes, with a capacity utilization rate of 50.76%, down 0.09% week on week.

9.2 East China Sulfur Output Analysis

This week sample weekly sulfur output in East China was 43,100 tonnes, flat week on week.

9.3 East China Capacity Utilization

According to FDD data statistics: this week the operating rate in East China's sulfur sector was about 45.82%, flat week on week.

9.4 Solid Sulfur Arrivals

According to FDD data statistics: as of now, planned November imports of solid sulfur at major national ports total 14,500 tonnes.