September 15 Urea Daily Review: Export Expectations Contend with Weak Fundamentals, Market Remains Rangebound
September 16, 2026
FDD-global.com
8166
Guide
Highlights at a glance
On September 15, China's small-granular urea price index rose to 1,802.27, marking a 0.05% increase period-on-period and 5.17% year-on-year. In the urea futures market, the UR2701 contract experienced weak fluctuations, reflecting subdued domestic demand and cautious purchasing among industrial and agricultural players. Export quota allocations offer long-term support but fail to resolve immediate market challenges. Spot market prices have shown some regional variations, yet overall trade remains restrained amid ample supply and weak demand. The urea market is expected to remain rangebound, with growth depending on downstream recovery, the implementation of export quotas, and autumn agriculture demand.
Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to FDD data, on September 15, China's small-granular urea price index stood at 1,802.27, up 0.91 from the previous working day, rising 0.05% period on period and 5.17% year on year.
Urea Futures Market:
Today, the UR2701 urea contract opened at 1,805, with a high of 1,805, a low of 1,784, a settlement price of 1,791, and a closing price of 1,789. The closing price was 17 points below the previous trading day's settlement, representing a decline of 0.94%. The Shandong basis for the January contract was -9. Open interest in the January contract decreased by 3,424 lots today to 248,514 lots.
The urea futures market fluctuated with a weak bias today. On the demand side, domestic demand remained weak. Agricultural demand was in the off-season, while compound fertilizer producers and industrial users mainly continued to purchase as needed when prices were low. Although producers were willing to defend prices, downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of high-priced material and remained cautious about chasing price increases, resulting in limited follow-through on new orders. On the cost side, firm coal and natural gas prices provided some bottom support for urea prices, but weak domestic demand continued to limit the upside. Positive expectations arising from the allocation of export quotas remained in place and provided longer-term support to futures prices. However, this favorable factor was reflected mainly in longer-term expectations and had yet to produce tangible short-term results, making it difficult to alter the current reality of weak domestic supply-demand fundamentals. Positive expectations and weak fundamentals offset one another, leaving the market without a clear directional driver and resulting in deadlocked, rangebound trading. Overall, urea futures lack a directional driver in the short term and continue to fluctuate between export-related sentiment and weak fundamentals. The market is expected to remain narrowly rangebound. Attention should remain on the actual implementation of export quotas, improvement in spot transactions, and the start of autumn fertilizer demand.
Spot Market Analysis:
Today, China's urea spot market consolidated within a narrow range. Producers are not currently facing significant shipment pressure, but the release of actual downstream demand remains limited. Overall trading is subdued, most producers are securing few new orders, and downstream buyers continue to purchase cautiously. From a supply-demand perspective, market supply remains relatively ample. The effects of the previous destocking cycle have already been reflected in prices, while downstream purchasing slowed after prices increased. Agricultural demand is in an intermittent period, and industrial users continue to maintain low-inventory strategies, leaving actual consumption capacity limited and the market without strong demand-side support. Although export quotas have now been allocated, their substantive benefits are reflected mainly in the longer term. Domestic urea fundamentals have shown no significant short-term improvement, and the market lacks new variables capable of driving a breakout. Overall, the supply-demand struggle will continue in the short term, and the market is expected to maintain a rangebound consolidation pattern. Its direction will depend on the subsequent recovery in demand and the implementation of export quotas.
Overall, China's urea spot market is currently consolidating within a narrow range. On the supply side, overall availability remains relatively ample. The earlier destocking trend has already been reflected in prices. Although maintenance at some units has caused daily output to edge down from elevated levels and deliveries to ports have diverted part of the supply from the domestic market, these factors have not fundamentally changed the loose supply pattern. On the demand side, agricultural demand is in an intermittent period and purchasing has not yet been released in a concentrated manner. Compound fertilizer producers and other downstream industrial users face high finished-product inventories and maintain low operating rates and low-inventory strategies. They remain cautious about purchasing and place only small supplementary orders for essential needs, making it difficult to generate strong demand support. Current fundamentals are caught between favorable longer-term export expectations and weak short-term market conditions. Support from the allocation of export quotas is reflected mainly in longer-term expectations and is unlikely to produce a substantive short-term change in fundamentals. The market therefore lacks a new driver capable of producing a breakout. Going forward, attention should focus on changes in downstream purchasing, the actual fulfillment of export orders, and progress in autumn agricultural fertilizer stockbuilding.
Specifically, prices in Northeast China remained stable at RMB 1,790-1,810/tonne. Prices in East China rose to RMB 1,750-1,820/tonne. Prices in Central China remained stable at RMB 1,760-1,920/tonne. Prices in North China fell to RMB 1,620-1,860/tonne. Prices in South China remained stable at RMB 1,800-1,860/tonne. Prices in Northwest China remained stable at RMB 1,860-1,910/tonne. Prices in Southwest China remained stable at RMB 1,660-1,900/tonne.
Market News:
September 15: In the Guangzhou, Guangdong market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,840-1,850/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.
September 15: In the Nanning, Guangxi market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,800-1,810/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.
September 15: In the Shijiazhuang, Hebei market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,780-1,860/tonne, broadly unchanged from the previous working day.
September 15: In the Wen'an, Hebei market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,780-1,850/tonne, broadly unchanged from the previous working day.
September 15: In the Shangqiu market, mainstream reference prices for small- and medium-granular urea were RMB 1,760-1,800/tonne, while large-granular urea was quoted at around RMB 1,940-1,950/tonne.
September 15: In the Jingmen market, mainstream reference prices for small- and medium-granular urea were RMB 1,770-1,780/tonne. Temporary station self-pickup prices were around RMB 1,730-1,750/tonne, while mainstream station self-pickup prices for large-granular urea were RMB 1,880-1,920/tonne.
September 15: In the Tieling, Liaoning market, ex-warehouse and truck-pickup reference prices were RMB 1,790-1,810/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.
September 15: In the Heze, Shandong market, the reference price for delivered urea was around RMB 1,750-1,780/tonne, up RMB 10/tonne from the previous working day.
September 15: In the Linyi, Shandong market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,770-1,790/tonne, broadly unchanged from the previous working day.
September 15: In the Xianyang market, mainstream reference prices were RMB 1,800-1,820/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.
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