September 16 Urea Daily Review: Futures and Spot Markets Consolidate Firmly, While Demand Constraints Persist

September 17, 2026

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Highlights at a glance

China's urea market witnessed fluctuations on September 16, with the domestic urea price index slightly declining but maintaining an upward trend year-on-year. Futures markets showed a firm bias driven by stronger spot market sentiments and export quota expectations, while spot markets indicated stability despite weak short-term demand fundamentals. Agricultural and industrial buyers exercised caution, keeping inventory strategies minimal. Export quotas held longer-term potential without immediate impact on fundamentals. The short-term outlook anticipates narrow-range consolidation with market dynamics influenced by downstream purchasing, export orders, and seasonal stockbuilding trends.

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to FDD data, on September 16, China's small-granular urea price index stood at 1,800.00, down 2.73 from the previous working day, down 0.05% period on period and up 5.15% year on year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today, the UR2701 urea contract opened at 1,793, with a high of 1,816, a low of 1,790, a settlement price of 1,805, and a closing price of 1,807. The closing price was 16 points above the previous trading day's settlement, representing an increase of 0.89%. The Shandong basis for the January contract was -17. Open interest in the January contract increased by 336 lots today to 248,850 lots.

The urea futures market fluctuated with a firm bias today. Overall sentiment across commodity markets improved, with the rise in futures driven mainly by a stronger spot market. Expectations that export quotas would divert supply toward overseas demand continued to develop, helping market sentiment recover. Spot producers held ample pending orders and maintained firm offers, directly supporting the market. Meanwhile, the market gradually began pricing in the seasonal prospect of presale orders ahead of the National Day holiday, further lifting the center of futures prices. However, the current increase primarily reflects improved expectations, while domestic demand fundamentals have shown no substantive improvement. Agricultural demand is currently in a seasonal gap, and compound fertilizer producers and other industrial users are purchasing mainly for essential needs. Downstream buyers show limited willingness to accept relatively high prices, making it difficult for new spot orders to increase effectively. This has become a practical constraint on further futures gains, leaving the market caught between favorable expectations and weak current fundamentals. Overall, urea futures lack a clear directional driver in the short term and continue to fluctuate between export-related sentiment and weak fundamentals. The market is expected to maintain narrow, rangebound consolidation. Attention should remain on the actual implementation pace of export quotas, improvement in spot transactions, and the start of autumn fertilizer demand.

Spot Market Analysis:

China's urea spot market remained firm today. Producers continued to face little short-term shipment pressure because of support from pending orders, but new transactions remained scarce. Offers were generally firm, and the market remained stable but deadlocked under the influence of sentiment and producer price levels. From a supply-demand perspective, market supply remains relatively ample. The effects of the previous destocking cycle have already been reflected in prices, while downstream purchasing slowed after prices increased. Agricultural demand is in an intermittent period, and industrial users continue to maintain low-inventory strategies, leaving actual consumption capacity limited and the market without strong demand-side support. Although export quotas have now been allocated, their substantive benefits are reflected mainly in the longer term. Domestic urea fundamentals have shown no significant short-term improvement, and the market lacks new variables capable of driving a breakout. Overall, the supply-demand struggle will continue in the short term, and the market is expected to maintain narrow-range consolidation. Its direction will depend on the subsequent recovery in demand and the implementation of export quotas.

Overall, China's urea spot market is currently consolidating within a narrow range. On the supply side, overall availability remains relatively ample. The earlier destocking trend has already been reflected in prices. Although maintenance at some units has caused daily output to edge down from elevated levels and deliveries to ports have diverted part of the supply from the domestic market, these factors have not fundamentally changed the loose supply pattern. On the demand side, agricultural demand is in an intermittent period and purchasing has not yet been released in a concentrated manner. Compound fertilizer producers and other downstream industrial users face high finished-product inventories and maintain low operating rates and low-inventory strategies. They remain cautious about purchasing and place only small supplementary orders for essential needs, making it difficult to generate strong demand support. Current fundamentals are caught between favorable longer-term export expectations and weak short-term market conditions. Support from the allocation of export quotas is reflected mainly in longer-term expectations and is unlikely to produce a substantive short-term change in fundamentals. The market therefore lacks a new driver capable of producing a breakout. Going forward, attention should focus on changes in downstream purchasing, the actual fulfillment of export orders, and progress in autumn agricultural fertilizer stockbuilding.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China remained stable at RMB 1,790-1,810/tonne. Prices in East China rose to RMB 1,760-1,820/tonne. Prices in Central China fell to RMB 1,750-1,920/tonne. Prices in North China remained stable at RMB 1,620-1,860/tonne. Prices in South China remained stable at RMB 1,800-1,860/tonne. Prices in Northwest China remained stable at RMB 1,860-1,910/tonne. Prices in Southwest China remained stable at RMB 1,660-1,900/tonne.

Market News Updates:

September 16: In the Guangzhou, Guangdong market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,840-1,850/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

September 16: In the Nanning, Guangxi market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,800-1,810/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

September 16: In the Shijiazhuang, Hebei market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,780-1,860/tonne, broadly unchanged from the previous working day.

September 16: In the Wen'an, Hebei market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,780-1,850/tonne, broadly unchanged from the previous working day.

September 16: In the Shangqiu market, mainstream reference prices for small- and medium-granular urea were RMB 1,760-1,800/tonne, while large-granular urea was quoted at around RMB 1,990-2,000/tonne.

September 16: In the Jingmen market, mainstream reference prices for small- and medium-granular urea were RMB 1,750-1,780/tonne. Temporary station self-pickup prices were around RMB 1,700-1,730/tonne, while mainstream station self-pickup prices for large-granular urea were RMB 1,880-1,920/tonne.

September 16: In the Tieling, Liaoning market, ex-warehouse and truck-pickup reference prices were RMB 1,790-1,810/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

September 16: In the Heze, Shandong market, the reference price for delivered urea was around RMB 1,760-1,790/tonne, up RMB 10/tonne from the previous working day.

September 16: In the Linyi, Shandong market, the reference price for delivered urea was RMB 1,780-1,800/tonne, up RMB 10/tonne from the previous working day.

September 16: In the Xianyang market, mainstream reference prices were RMB 1,800-1,820/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day.

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September 16 Urea Daily Review: Futures and Spot Markets Consolidate Firmly, While Demand Constraints Persist