September 21 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Sulfur Market Recovers Slightly as MAP and DAP Trade Weakly and Steadily

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data, on September 21, China's 55% powdered MAP index stood at 4,018.75, unchanged from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was unchanged at 4,300.00, while the 58% powdered MAP index was unchanged at 4,383.33.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's MAP market underwent consolidation today. On the producer side, most plants are still fulfilling previous orders, traders are reluctant to reduce prices, and actual transactions remain negotiable. On the market side, low-priced offers have frequently emerged, and the atmosphere for inquiries has improved somewhat. On the demand side, demand from some downstream compound fertilizer producers has been released to a certain extent, purchasing enthusiasm has improved, and new-order transactions have increased. However, overall demand remains relatively sluggish. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices fluctuated within a narrow range today, with divergent trends. Sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall, sulfuric acid prices continue to undergo weak consolidation, and the phosphate rock market is mainly stable. Although raw material prices have declined, they remain at high levels and continue to provide relatively strong support for producers. Overall, the MAP market is characterized by marginally weaker cost support and a sluggish demand recovery and is expected to undergo weak consolidation in the short term. Attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace at which downstream compound fertilizer producers begin autumn stockpiling, and the impact of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data, on September 21, China's mainstream 64% granular DAP index stood at 4,563.33, unchanged from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was unchanged at 4,700.00, while the 57% DAP index was unchanged at 4,466.36.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's DAP market traded weakly today. On the producer side, some enterprises remain focused on shipping orders booked earlier, while prices remain firm and actual transactions are negotiable. On the market side, the trading atmosphere has improved somewhat. On the demand side, as the autumn fertilizer stockpiling window gradually approaches, grassroots demand is being released progressively. Product circulation has accelerated compared with the previous period, and the market trading atmosphere is showing signs of recovery. However, purchases remain concentrated on small orders for essential needs, and large-scale procurement has yet to begin. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices underwent narrow-range consolidation today. Sulfur port inventories remain relatively low overall, sulfuric acid prices continue to weaken, and the phosphate rock market is mainly stable. Although raw material prices have declined, they remain relatively high and continue to provide strong support for the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to remain deadlocked and range-bound in the short term. Attention should focus on raw material price movements, downstream demand follow-up, and subsequent adjustments to export policies.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data, on September 21, the price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,200/tonne, up RMB 50/tonne from the previous working day. Granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,180/tonne, up RMB 50/tonne. Powdered and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,150/tonne, up RMB 50/tonne, while the price at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,130/tonne, up RMB 50/tonne. Solid sulfur in East China was unchanged at RMB 7,400/tonne, while liquid sulfur was RMB 7,430/tonne, up RMB 105/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's sulfur spot market underwent narrow-range consolidation today. Conditions improved modestly in some areas, with quotations at ports and in Shandong edging higher. On the supply side, sulfur output from domestic refineries remained stable. The pace of port arrivals continues to be disrupted by overseas shipping and geopolitical factors, while port inventory levels continue to provide some downside support for prices. However, the international market has softened, gradually transmitting weakness to the domestic market and weakening the shipment sentiment of some cargo holders. On the demand side, operating rates among downstream phosphate fertilizer producers have not increased noticeably, and autumn fertilizer stockpiling is progressing slowly. Phosphate fertilizer plants are mainly purchasing sulfur only as needed, with little willingness to make large-scale replenishment purchases. Consumption by the sulfuric acid and specialty chemical sectors has also shown no improvement, leaving overall purchasing activity limited. With the National Day holiday approaching, most downstream participants remain on the sidelines, and actual spot transactions are subdued. The market is currently caught between uncertainty over import arrivals and weak real downstream demand. Sulfur prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term. Attention should focus on overseas cargo arrivals, the recovery of operating rates among downstream phosphate fertilizer producers, and changes in shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

September 21: Delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP in Anhui were approximately RMB 4,050-4,150/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP in Northeast China were approximately RMB 4,200-4,230/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP in Henan were approximately RMB 3,980-4,150/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powdered MAP in Hubei were approximately RMB 3,900-4,100/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP in Jiangsu were approximately RMB 3,950-4,150/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP in Shandong were approximately RMB 3,950-4,150/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Delivered offers for 55% powdered MAP in Sichuan were approximately RMB 3,950-4,050/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Ex-factory offers for 55% powdered MAP in Yunnan were approximately RMB 4,000-4,050/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Ex-factory self-pickup offers for 60% DAP in Shaanxi were RMB 4,500-4,650/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Ex-factory self-pickup offers for 64% DAP in Northeast China were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Self-pickup offers for 57% DAP in Hebei were RMB 4,250-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Ex-factory self-pickup offers for 64% DAP in Hubei were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 21: Ex-warehouse self-pickup offers for 64% DAP in Shandong were RMB 4,850-4,950/tonne, with quotations stable. Self-pickup offers for 57% DAP at railway stations were RMB 4,250-4,350/tonne, also unchanged.