September 21 Pesticide Daily Review: Temporary Stability with a Wait-and-See Stance

The pesticide market remains in off-season range-bound trading. Market sentiment has improved slightly compared with the previous period, but most downstream buyers continue to follow up only for essential needs. Some products have recently received strong support from rising costs, while various factors have caused supply to contract, resulting in sharp short-term price increases. However, due to difficulties in transmitting these increases through the industrial chain, expectations are also emerging that higher prices could generate negative downstream feedback. The market is therefore waiting to see whether end-user demand can absorb the increases. Although there are signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease, the overall situation remains tense. Navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, two major maritime chokepoints, remain elevated, continuing to provide cost support for the petrochemical industry. However, expectations that the market may be approaching a peak are gradually emerging. Overall, cautious sentiment persists. Some products have risen significantly, while other categories have shown limited follow-up, resulting in clear market divergence and a sustained wait-and-see atmosphere. Attention should subsequently focus on changes in geopolitical sentiment, export momentum, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides:

The herbicide market is showing some signs of stabilization overall. Major products, including glufosinate and glyphosate, are experiencing supply-side recovery as a result of higher raw material prices. Cost increases caused by geopolitical risks are becoming increasingly evident, although the market is still waiting for further demand-side drivers. Glufosinate prices have risen sharply recently, mainly because of tight production and price increases for raw material intermediates, as well as international political developments. The market is closely monitoring transactions following the substantial price increase. If the upward trend continues, substitute products may also follow with price increases. Overall, most downstream buyers continue to take delivery only for essential needs, while the market is watching whether strength in individual products could broaden into a more widespread rally.

Yellow Phosphorus:

Yellow phosphorus prices declined today, with the market's price center beginning to loosen as transaction volumes weakened on the demand side. In the short term, spot producers are mainly focused on shipping existing orders. Relatively strong earlier sales and tight spot availability have provided favorable conditions for producers to defend prices. However, downstream buyers are maintaining only moderate purchases for essential needs. As their capacity to stock up before the holiday is relatively limited, willingness to follow up has weakened after the continued price increase. Lower actual transaction volumes have consequently slowed the market's upward momentum.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides:

96% oxyfluorfen rose by RMB 6,000 to RMB 136,000/tonne. 95% glufosinate rose by RMB 9,000 to RMB 60,000/tonne. 90% clethodim fell by RMB 3,000 to RMB 72,000/tonne. 97% haloxyfop-P-methyl fell by RMB 3,000 to RMB 112,000/tonne.

Insecticides:

97% dinotefuran rose by RMB 2,000 to RMB 112,000/tonne. 96% chlorantraniliprole rose by RMB 35,000 to RMB 2,650,000/tonne.

Fungicides:

95% tricyclazole fell by RMB 1,000 to RMB 61,000/tonne. 97% pyraclostrobin fell by RMB 3,000 to RMB 120,000/tonne. 98% boscalid fell by RMB 5,000 to RMB 250,000/tonne.