September 23 Pesticide Daily Review: A Wait-and-See Pace

The pesticide market is generally fluctuating during the off-season. Market sentiment has improved slightly from earlier levels, but downstream buyers are still mainly purchasing to meet essential needs. Some products have recently received strong support from rising costs, while various factors have caused supply to contract, resulting in substantial short-term price increases. However, because of transmission issues along the industrial chain, higher prices may also trigger negative downstream feedback, and the market is currently waiting to see whether end-user demand can provide further support. Although the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is showing signs of easing and the energy-cost premium has retreated significantly, navigation risks remain high at the two major chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Cost support for the petrochemical industry is therefore unlikely to collapse rapidly in the short term. Nevertheless, as ceasefire expectations gradually emerge, the market is generally following a pattern of peaking and then pulling back. Overall, caution continues to dominate the market. Some products have risen significantly, while other categories have shown limited follow-through. Market divergence is evident and wait-and-see sentiment persists. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical sentiment, export strength and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The overall herbicide market is showing some signs of stabilizing. The major products glufosinate and glyphosate have both experienced supply-side recovery because of higher raw-material prices. The cost increases caused by geopolitical risks are gradually becoming evident, but the market is still watching for further demand-driven support. Glufosinate prices have recently jumped sharply, mainly because of tight production and rising prices for raw-material intermediates, as well as international political factors. The market is closely monitoring transactions following the substantial price increase, while substitute products have already begun to follow the upward trend. Overall, downstream buyers are mostly purchasing to meet essential needs, while demand-side follow-through remains relatively cautious.

Yellow Phosphorus: Yellow phosphorus prices stabilized today, although the price center began to soften after demand-side transactions weakened. In the short term, producers are mainly focused on fulfilling shipment orders. Earlier sales were relatively solid, and tight spot availability still provides reasonable support for producers to maintain prices. However, downstream buyers are mostly purchasing limited volumes to meet essential needs. As the scope for pre-holiday restocking is relatively limited, willingness to follow higher prices has declined after prices continued to rise. Many buyers are making inquiries at lower prices, and weaker spot transactions have slowed the upward price momentum.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Herbicides:

95% glyphosate: up RMB 2,000 to RMB 28,000/tonne.

Insecticides:

96% lambda-cyhalothrin: up RMB 1,000 to RMB 106,000/tonne. 96% bifenthrin: up RMB 1,000 to RMB 126,000/tonne. 97% acetamiprid: up RMB 1,000 to RMB 58,000/tonne. 97% clothianidin: up RMB 4,000 to RMB 68,000/tonne. 97% chlorpyrifos: up RMB 1,000 to RMB 38,000/tonne. 95% monosultap: up RMB 1,000 to RMB 25,000/tonne. 97% dinotefuran: up RMB 8,000 to RMB 120,000/tonne.

Fungicides:

95% propiconazole: up RMB 1,000 to RMB 69,000/tonne. 97% tebuconazole: up RMB 1,000 to RMB 47,000/tonne.