September 23 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Cautious Pre-Holiday Sentiment as the Sulfur and Phosphate Fertilizer Markets Consolidate

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on September 23, China's 55% powdered MAP index was 393.75, down 0.06% from the previous working day. The 55% granular MAP index was 4,300.00, unchanged from the previous working day, while the 58% powdered MAP index was 4,350.00, also unchanged.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

China's domestic MAP market continued to trade weakly today. On the producer side, most plants were still fulfilling earlier orders, market prices continued to decline, and low-priced offers from some small plants and traders reappeared, with actual transactions subject to negotiation. On the market side, low-priced offers appeared frequently, while trading sentiment remained stagnant and subdued. On the demand side, demand from some downstream compound fertilizer producers was released to a certain extent, but purchases remained focused on essential needs. Market sentiment was relatively cautious, and demand remained weak. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices fluctuated within a narrow range today; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices moved lower; and the phosphate rock market was mainly stable. Raw-material prices on the cost side all declined but remained high, continuing to provide relatively strong support for producers. Overall, the MAP market remains characterized by marginally weaker cost support and a sluggish demand recovery, and is expected to maintain a weak downward trend in the short term. Attention should remain on raw-material price movements, the pace at which downstream compound fertilizer producers begin autumn fertilizer stockpiling, and the impact of geopolitical developments on the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on September 23, China's mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,563.33, unchanged from the previous working day. The 60% brown DAP index was 4,600.00, also unchanged, while the 57% grade index was 4,282.50, down 0.12% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

China's domestic DAP market consolidated today as participants adopted a wait-and-see approach. On the producer side, some companies were mainly focused on fulfilling earlier orders awaiting shipment. Market quotations varied, while actual transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment was strong. On the demand side, as the autumn fertilizer stockpiling window gradually approaches, grassroots demand is being released step by step. Cargo circulation has improved from earlier levels, and market trading sentiment has shown signs of recovery. However, purchases remain concentrated in small orders for essential needs, and large-scale procurement has not yet begun. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range today; sulfur port inventories remained relatively low overall; sulfuric acid prices moved lower; and the phosphate rock market was mainly stable. Raw-material prices on the cost side all declined, but remained relatively high and continued to provide strong support for the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range in the short term. Attention should remain on raw-material price movements, downstream demand follow-through and subsequent adjustments to export policy.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data calculations, on September 23, the price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,200/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day. The price of granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,180/tonne, unchanged. The price of powdered/lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,150/tonne, unchanged. The price of powdered/lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,130/tonne, unchanged. The solid sulfur price in East China was RMB 7,200/tonne, unchanged from the previous working day, while the liquid sulfur price in East China was RMB 7,405/tonne, up RMB 80/tonne.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

China's domestic spot sulfur market generally consolidated within a narrow range today. Imported granular sulfur prices were stable from the previous day, with little change in the market's price center. Regional trends in the domestic liquid sulfur market diverged. Liquid sulfur in Shandong staged a modest rebound through auctions, but downstream cost pressure became evident after prices rose. Acceptance of high-priced cargoes declined, and some lots went unsold. Auction transactions improved in Northwest China, while liquid sulfur quotations in Northeast China were lowered. Morning quotations for granular sulfur at ports remained stable today. Only a small number of sporadic transactions were recorded, and overall trading activity showed no significant recovery. Auction sentiment for liquid sulfur from Shandong independent refineries remained positive, downstream demand for essential purchases continued, and premiums persisted in some areas. With the holiday approaching, traders showed limited willingness to replenish inventories. Most market inquiries were tentative, and the number of firm transactions gradually declined. Wait-and-see sentiment among traders also strengthened as the holiday approached. However, potential disruptions to global sulfur supply continue to provide some floor support for the market. The contest between bullish and bearish factors is likely to continue in the short term, with the market expected to fluctuate. Some cargo holders may offer discounts to facilitate sales, while others may wait until after the holiday before resuming sales. The sulfur market is expected to remain quiet and stable before the holiday. Attention should subsequently focus on the pace of downstream restocking after the holiday.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Information:

September 23: The delivered quotation for 55% powdered MAP in the Anhui market was around RMB 3,950-4,000/tonne, with quotations lowered.

September 23: The delivered price for 55% powdered MAP in the Northeast market was around RMB 4,200-4,230/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The delivered price for 55% powdered MAP in the Henan market was around RMB 3,900-4,000/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The mainstream ex-works price for 55% powdered MAP in the Hubei market was around RMB 3,800-3,900/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The delivered price for 55% powdered MAP in the Jiangsu market was around RMB 3,900-4,000/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The delivered quotation for 55% powdered MAP in the Shandong market was around RMB 3,950-4,150/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The delivered quotation for 55% powdered MAP in the Sichuan market was around RMB 3,800-3,900/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The ex-works quotation for 55% powdered MAP in the Yunnan market was around RMB 3,900-3,900/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The ex-plant pickup quotation for 60% DAP in Shaanxi was RMB 4,500-4,650/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The ex-plant pickup quotation for 64% DAP in Northeast China was RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The pickup quotation for 57% DAP in Hebei was RMB 4,250-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The ex-plant pickup quotation for 64% DAP in Hubei was RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

September 23: The ex-warehouse pickup quotation for 64% DAP in Shandong was RMB 4,850-4,950/tonne, with quotations stable; the station pickup quotation for 57% DAP was RMB 4,250-4,350/tonne, also with quotations stable.