September 28 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Pre-Holiday Trading Cools; Phosphate Fertilizer Market Continues to Consolidate with Divergence

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data, on September 28, the domestic index for 55% powdered MAP was RMB 3,893.75 per tonne, down 0.16% from the previous working day. The index for 55% granular MAP was RMB 4,300.00 per tonne, unchanged from the previous working day. The index for 58% powdered MAP was RMB 4,350.00 per tonne, also unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic MAP market continued to operate weakly today. On the producer side, most plants were still fulfilling earlier orders, while market prices continued to decline. Low-priced offers reappeared from some smaller plants and traders, and actual transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the Market side, supply was ample and trading activity remained sluggish amid a standoff. On the demand side, some downstream compound-fertilizer producers released demand, but purchases remained largely needs-based. Market sentiment was cautious, and demand remained relatively weak. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range today. Overall sulfur inventories at ports remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices continued to decline, while the phosphate-rock market was broadly stable. Continued declines in raw-material prices weakened cost support for producers. Overall, the MAP market is currently characterized by weakening marginal cost support and a sluggish demand recovery. The market is expected to remain weak and trend lower in the short term. Key factors to monitor include raw-material price movements, the pace at which downstream compound-fertilizer producers begin autumn fertilizer stocking, and the impact of geopolitical developments on costs.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data, on September 28, the domestic index for mainstream 64% granular DAP was RMB 4,563.33 per tonne, unchanged from the previous working day. The index for 60% brown DAP was RMB 4,600.00 per tonne, unchanged from the previous working day. The index for 57% DAP was RMB 4,282.50 per tonne, also unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

The domestic DAP market was relatively weak today. On the producer side, some companies were mainly handling orders awaiting shipment. while market offers varied and actual transactions remained subject to negotiation. On the Market side, participants showed strong wait-and-see sentiment. On the demand side, downstream grassroots demand was being released slowly, with purchases concentrated mainly on small, needs-based orders. Trading activity was average, large-scale procurement had not yet begun, and some traders were under pressure, causing market prices to weaken. On the raw-material side, domestic sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range today. Overall sulfur inventories at ports remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices continued to decline, while the phosphate-rock market was broadly stable. Raw-material prices at the cost end all declined to some extent, but remained relatively high and continued to provide strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating within a narrow range in the short term. Key factors to monitor include raw-material price movements, downstream demand and any subsequent changes to export policy.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data, on September 28, the price of granular sulfur at Zhenjiang port was RMB 7,150 per tonne, unchanged from the previous working day. The price of granular sulfur at Dafeng port was RMB 7,100 per tonne, also unchanged. The price of powdered/lump sulfur at Zhenjiang port was RMB 7,130 per tonne, unchanged. The price of powdered/lump sulfur at Dafeng port was RMB 7,080 per tonne, unchanged. The price of solid sulfur in East China was RMB 7,200 per tonne, unchanged. The price of liquid sulfur in East China was RMB 7,390 per tonne, up RMB 30 per tonne from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Domestic sulfur spot prices showed narrow-range consolidation overall this week, with divergent regional trends. Imported granular sulfur prices edged lower during the week. As the National Day holiday approaches, many market participants have begun controlling their pre-holiday operating pace. Trading sentiment has shifted toward retreat and wait-and-see, while market attention has gradually turned to post-holiday developments and buying interest at ports has weakened. Regional trends in domestic liquid sulfur were notably different. Liquid sulfur in Shandong remained volatile at high levels. Some refineries recently reduced production, tightening spot supply in the region. Downstream buyers still had needs-based inventory-replenishment requirements before the holiday, and participation in market auctions was relatively active. As long as costs remained acceptable, downstream buyers maintained a certain willingness to take cargo, supporting further gains in the local liquid-sulfur market. On the supply side, overall domestic refinery output has declined in some areas, providing a degree of downside support to local markets. Overseas prices remain affected by geopolitical developments and shipping schedules, and the timing of future arrivals of imported cargoes remains uncertain. Demand remains the main factor restraining the overall market. Autumn fertilizer stocking by downstream fertilizer producers has progressed at an average pace, while large-scale centralized replenishment has not yet emerged. Operating rates in sulfuric-acid and other downstream chemical sectors have not received any notable boost. Purchasing across the industrial chain has become more cautious, and downstream buyers continue to show some resistance to high raw-material prices. The trading sector is strongly wait-and-see, with cargo holders in different regions showing divergent selling sentiment. Some merchants intend to offer moderate concessions to move cargo before the holiday, but overall downstream follow-through has been limited and large-volume transactions have remained uncommon. In the short term, the sulfur market will continue to be pulled between tight supply in some areas and weak overall downstream demand. With the holiday approaching and market activity declining, the domestic sulfur market is expected to remain mostly range-bound in the short term. Market participants will need to continue monitoring overseas prices, changes in shipping and geopolitical conditions, the post-holiday recovery of downstream fertilizer-plant operating rates and the pace of cargo circulation at ports.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News:

September 28: The delivered price of 55% powdered MAP in Anhui was around RMB 3,900-4,000 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The delivered price of 55% powdered MAP in Northeast China was around RMB 4,200-4,230 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The delivered price of 55% powdered MAP in Henan was around RMB 3,850-3,950 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The mainstream ex-works price of 55% powdered MAP in Hubei was around RMB 3,700-3,900 per tonne, with offers lowered.

September 28: The delivered price of 55% powdered MAP in Jiangsu was around RMB 3,850-3,950 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The delivered price of 55% powdered MAP in Shandong was around RMB 3,850-3,950 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The delivered price of 55% powdered MAP in Sichuan was around RMB 3,800-3,900 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The ex-works price of 55% powdered MAP in Yunnan was around RMB 3,850-3,900 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The ex-works price of 60% DAP in Shaanxi for self-pickup was RMB 4,500-4,650 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The ex-works price of 64% DAP in Northeast China for self-pickup was RMB 4,550-4,600 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The self-pickup price of 57% DAP in Hebei was RMB 4,250-4,350 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The ex-works price of 64% DAP in Hubei for self-pickup was RMB 4,800-4,850 per tonne, with offers stable.

September 28: The ex-warehouse price of 64% DAP in Shandong was RMB 4,850-4,950 per tonne, with offers stable. The price of 57% DAP for self-pickup at the rail terminal was RMB 4,250-4,350 per tonne, also with offers stable.