September 28 Pesticide Daily Review: Prices Hold Steady Ahead of the Holiday

The pesticide market as a whole was volatile with a firm bias, and market sentiment improved somewhat, although downstream buyers continued to purchase mainly on a needs basis. Cost-driven support has been strong for some products recently, while various factors have contributed to tighter supply, resulting in relatively strong price gains in the short term. However, because of transmission issues along the industrial chain, expectations of negative downstream feedback caused by higher prices are also present. The market is temporarily waiting to see how much further support terminal demand can provide. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain volatile. Although talks between the United States and Iran are anticipated, the path to negotiations remains difficult in practical terms. Navigation risks remain high in the two strategic chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Cost support for the petrochemical industry is therefore unlikely to collapse rapidly in the short term. However, as the market gradually begins to price in expectations of a ceasefire, the overall market logic has shifted toward a peak followed by a decline. Overall, market caution remains widespread. Some products have risen significantly, while other categories have shown limited follow-through. Market trends have diverged clearly, and a wait-and-see atmosphere continues. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical sentiment, export activity and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides:

The herbicide market as a whole is showing some signs of stabilization and recovery. Major products such as glufosinate and glyphosate have both seen supply-side adjustments as a result of higher raw-material prices. The cost increases caused by geopolitical risks are gradually becoming apparent, while the market continues to watch for further demand-driven support. Glufosinate prices have jumped sharply recently, mainly because of tight production and higher prices for raw-material intermediates, as well as international political issues. The market is focusing on trading after the sharp price increase and on whether the gains can be sustained. Price increases for substitute products have also begun to emerge. Overall, most downstream buyers continue to take cargo only as needed, and demand-side follow-through remains cautious.

Yellow Phosphorus:

Yellow phosphorus prices stabilized and edged higher today. Producers are currently mainly handling shipment orders. Earlier cargo movement was relatively good, and the pressure on producers to clear warehouse inventories has gradually eased. However, the tight spot-supply situation has not been fully reversed, and upstream suppliers still have conditions to support prices. After prices stabilized, some suppliers adopted controlled-volume sales. Downstream buyers mostly continued to purchase moderate quantities on a needs basis. Since downstream pre-holiday stocking capacity is relatively limited, the main market focus after the continued price increases is whether demand will follow through.

Pesticide Market Prices Outlook

Herbicides:

95% glyphosate, up RMB 2,000 to RMB 28,000 per tonne.

Insecticides:

96% lambda-cyhalothrin, up RMB 1,000 to RMB 106,000 per tonne. 96% bifenthrin, up RMB 1,000 to RMB 126,000 per tonne. 97% acetamiprid, up RMB 1,000 to RMB 58,000 per tonne. 97% clothianidin, up RMB 4,000 to RMB 68,000 per tonne. 97% chlorpyrifos, up RMB 1,000 to RMB 38,000 per tonne. 95% monosultap, up RMB 1,000 to RMB 25,000 per tonne. 97% dinotefuran, up RMB 8,000 to RMB 120,000 per tonne.

Fungicides:

95% propiconazole, up RMB 1,000 to RMB 69,000 per tonne. 97% tebuconazole, up RMB 1,000 to RMB 47,000 per tonne.