The price of raw materials generally rose obviously, but potash fertilizer followed slowly.

June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM

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After a recent price surge, the domestic potash fertilizer market has stabilized at high levels, with limited further upside potential. While potassium chloride prices have steadily risen—reaching 4,850–4,950 yuan/ton for 60% and 5,300–5,350 yuan/ton for 62% at ports—downstream demand has weakened due to high costs, especially as compound fertilizer producers shift to high-nitrogen products in May. Although domestic salt lake quotations remain unchanged, actual market prices continue to climb amid tight supply. Meanwhile, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer prices have surged, contrasting with potash’s modest gains. Rising potassium chloride costs have pressured potassium sulfate manufacturers, pushing Mannheim process producers to raise prices despite operating rates as low as 40%. With SDIC’s plant set for summer maintenance and limited output, resource-based potassium sulfate prices have also increased, reaching 5,200 yuan/ton. Yet manufacturers still face losses, lacking strong downs

After a new round of domestic potash fertilizer price increase in the early stage, the market entered a flat trend of high and firm. Although the price still has the intention to continue to push up, the range is relatively limited. When potash fertilizer is gradually entering a stable stage, on the other hand, the prices of nitrogenous fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer, which are both raw materials, have risen sharply. It can really be said that being alone is not as happy as everyone else.

As can be seen from the price trend, after the price of potassium chloride experienced a small fluctuation in March, the price went up slowly all the way. Except for large particles, when the market ended one after another, the price increase was limited, and the prices of other varieties were all rising. Up to now, the price of 60% potassium chloride in the port is mostly 4,850-4,950 yuan/ton, including Laos white potassium, and the price of 62% potassium chloride in the port is mostly 5,300-5,350 yuan/ton. Although the official quotation of domestic salt lakes has not been adjusted in late May, the market price is still rising even though the supply of goods is still limited, and the market price of 60% crystal is mostly 4,700 yuan. However, at such a high price, the general acceptance of downstream factories has obviously slowed down.

In May, the downstream compound fertilizer plants mainly produce high nitrogen fertilizer, and the consumption of potassium chloride has a significant downward trend. Processing plants and chemical plants still have a certain demand for potassium chloride, but the overall procurement is based on demand. At a high price, the downstream plants operate cautiously, and there is no obvious favorable support from the demand side.

Under the pressure of cost, potassium sulfate keeps rising.

With the continuous increase of potassium chloride, the cost pressure of processing potassium sulfate manufacturers has become increasingly prominent. If the current price of potassium chloride in port is combined, the selling price of Mannheim manufacturers is at least upside down at the level of 400 yuan/ton, so potassium sulfate manufacturers are constantly pushing up the market price.

As can be seen from the price chart of potassium sulfate, although the price of potassium sulfate continues to rise, the increase in the early stage is relatively slow, and the price of potassium sulfate has been pushed up obviously since the end of April. Moreover, the quotation of resource-based manufacturers is constantly rising. The arrival price of 52% potassium powder from SDIC is 5200 yuan/ton. The plant will be overhauled in summer at the end of the month, and it is planned to resume production in September. The supply of goods in the plant is relatively limited. The corresponding Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers keep pushing up the price when the operating rate is only 40%, and the ex-factory price of 52% powdered potassium sulfate is mostly 5,200-5,300 yuan/ton. However, even if the deal is made at this price, the manufacturers are still in an upside-down state, and they still need the support of the purchasing demand of downstream factories.

On the whole, in the market where nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer are soaring, the trend of potash fertilizer is not excessive. Although the rising trend has eased, it is still at the high price of all fertilizer raw materials. However, the price support still needs the downstream demand. In the traditional off-season of the second quarter, the demand for potash fertilizer has narrowed, and the market may remain in a state of weak supply and demand and mutual checks and balances.

Ammonium chloride: up, unstoppable

Los precios de los fertilizantes compuestos siguen subiendo, o seguirán utilizando fertilizantes en otoño