Urea Daily Review: Approaching National Day Holiday, Many Enterprises Lower Prices to Attract Orders

Domestic Urea Price Index:
According to Feidoodoo data, on September 21, the urea small granule price index was 2612.41, a decrease of 11.36 from yesterday, a decrease of 0.43% month-on-month, and an increase of 2.56% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:
Today, the opening price of the urea UR2401 contract was 2241, the highest price was 2251, the lowest price was 2202, the settlement price was 2232, and the closing price was 2234, a decrease of 18 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.80%. The daily fluctuation range was 2202-2251, with a price difference of 49; the 01 contract increased by 2638 hands today, with a current holding of 337922 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:
Today, the domestic urea market price was adjusted downwards, and many enterprises reduced their ex-factory quotations, intending to make small concessions to attract orders for the National Day holiday.

Specifically, the price in the Northeast region remained stable at 2560-2620 yuan/ton. The price in the North China region remained stable at 2420-2670 yuan/ton. The price in the Northwest region fell to 2560-2570 yuan/ton. The price in the Southwest region remained stable at 2450-2800 yuan/ton. The price in the East China region fell to 2600-2660 yuan/ton. The price of small granules in the Central China region fell to 2520-2730 yuan/ton, and the price of large granules fell to 2580-2620 yuan/ton. The price in the South China region fell to 2620-2740 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:
In terms of supply, with the gradual recovery of devices that were under maintenance, the current daily production has gradually increased to around 166,000 tons, and there will still be a release of new capacity at the end of this month, expecting a significant increase in supply. On the enterprise side, currently, many enterprises have orders to be delivered. With the approach of the National Day holiday, some enterprises intend to initiate pre-receipt plans, and enterprise sales are not under pressure. In terms of demand, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have weakened their purchases, and many are replenishing orders based on price levels. Additionally, as the holiday approaches, many urea enterprises are lowering prices to attract orders, and downstream enterprises are considering entering the market at lower prices.

Overall, with the continuous increase in supply enterprises willing to attract orders, and cautious purchasing downstream, it is expected that the market price will adjust downwards in the short term, and it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the daily increase in production.