Urea Daily Review: Prices Continue to Rise, Resistance Sentiment Emerges Among Traders

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to the data calculated by Feidoodoo More, on November 2nd, the urea small particle price index was 2570.91, an increase of 5.32 from yesterday, up 0.21% month-on-month, and 1.27% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's urea UR2401 contract opening price: 2326, highest price: 2357, lowest price: 2313, settlement price: 2338, closing price: 2348, the closing price compared to the last trading day's settlement price increased by 3, up 0.13% month-on-month, with a daily fluctuation range of 2313-2357; the Shandong area basis for the 01 contract is 172; the 01 contract increased positions by 3572 hands today, with current holdings at 370,038 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea price increase has slowed down. After several consecutive days of pulling up, the downstream mentality is cautious. Factories have a large number of orders from earlier periods, and currently, they are mainly holding prices.

Specifically, the price in the Northeast region has risen to 2570-2620 yuan/ton. The price in the North China region has risen to 2390-2620 yuan/ton. The price in the Northwest region has risen to 2540-2550 yuan/ton. The price in the Southwest region has stabilized at 2480-2800 yuan/ton. The price in the East China region has fallen to 2500-2570 yuan/ton. In the Central China region, the price of small and medium particles has risen to 2500-2680 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has risen to 2550-2680 yuan/ton. The price in the South China region has fallen to 2620-2680 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

On the supply side, due to Shanxi's production restriction policy and maintenance of some regional units, the daily production has slightly declined recently, but it is still at a medium to high level. Additionally, the total inventory of enterprises continues to decrease, and the current enterprise inventory is low, leading to a tight spot supply. On the manufacturer's side, the transaction of new orders has gradually slowed down, but supported by a large number of earlier orders, factories have a strong mentality to hold prices, and the ex-factory quotations are mostly stable with slight exploratory increases. On the demand side, it is currently the off-season for agriculture, but there is still some off-season storage demand this month. Given the current high prices, market purchases are relatively limited, and off-season follow-up is slow. Industrial demand continues to be dominated by just-in-time purchases, and in recent days, there have been signs of compound fertilizer factories in the Northeast resuming operations, which will increase the demand for urea.

In summary, the current market supply is declining, demand is gradually increasing, and with the support of manufacturers' pending shipments, it is expected that the urea market prices will undergo a short-term consolidation with fluctuations.