Urea Daily Review: Sales Pressure of Enterprises Relieved, Prices Rise Accordingly

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, the urea small particle price index on October 16 was 2465.73, an increase of 26.36 from last Friday, up 1.08% week-on-week, and down 4.82% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

Today's urea UR2401 contract opened at 2121, with a high of 2149, a low of 2093, a settlement price of 2125, and a closing price of 2122. The closing price rose by 39 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 1.87%. The full-day fluctuation range was 2093-2149, with a price difference of 56. The 01 contract reduced its position by 9,814 hands today, with a current holding of 318,724 hands.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the domestic urea market price showed an upward trend. Most urea companies reported stable to rising ex-factory prices today. With the support of pending orders and recent positive order receipts, the sales pressure of companies has temporarily eased.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2420-2490 yuan/ton. Prices in the North China region rose to 2270-2490 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region fell to 2360-2370 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region rose to 2380-2800 yuan/ton. Prices in the East China region rose to 2350-2440 yuan/ton. Prices for small particles in Central China rose to 2380-2620 yuan/ton, and large particles rose to 2520-2550 yuan/ton. Prices in the South China region rose to 2530-2600 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

On the supply side, companies are currently operating at a high rate, and supply is sufficient at this stage. On the enterprise side, with the continuous decline in market prices last week, the shipment situation of low-end goods has improved. Currently, companies have better order receipts, and the previous sales pressure has been slightly relieved. On the demand side, current downstream demand is in the off-season. Most downstream traders primarily purchase based on immediate needs, wait for prices to drop before buying, and continue with a wait-and-see attitude. On the export side, there are rumors that export policies have recently been slightly relaxed. Currently, port inventories are showing an upward trend, but the shipping schedule is not yet determined. The specific export situation still needs continuous attention.

Overall, the daily production of urea will remain high for a long time. With some transactions in the low-end market and continuous export news, it is expected that the urea market price will remain stable with a slight increase in the short term.