Market Overview

Feidoodoo Price Index:

This week, the domestic urea market price remains at a relatively high level. Although the overall trend of urea market prices this week shows a downward trend, the price is still high. The average price index for small granular urea this week is 2612.05, an increase of 39.82 from last week, a rise of 1.55%.

Urea Delivery Area Quotation:

Specifically, the price in the Northeast region is stable at 2500-2560 yuan/ton. The price in North China has dropped to 2410-2600 yuan/ton. The price in the Northwest region has risen to 2580-2590 yuan/ton. The price in the Southwest region is stable at 2450-2800 yuan/ton. The price in East China has risen to 2610-2670 yuan/ton. The price of small granules in Central China has dropped to 2500-2730 yuan/ton, and the price of large granules has risen to 2600-2630 yuan/ton. The price in South China has dropped to 2600-2720 yuan/ton.

Daily Production Rapidly Rebounds:

This week, the domestic urea production is about 1.0804 million tons, a decrease of 2.55% from last week and a decrease of 1.72% year-on-year. The daily output is 154,300 tons, and the daily output continues to narrow down slightly during the week, slightly lower than the level in 2022. The operating rate of the domestic urea industry is about 72.46%, a decrease of 2.33% from last week, and an increase of 2.11% year-on-year. The operating rate of the domestic urea industry has decreased, which is higher than the same period last year.

Market Inventory:

This week, the port inventory of large granular urea in China is 137,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons from last week, and an increase of 55,000 tons from the same period last year. The port volume of large granular urea decreased during the week, which is higher than the same period last year.

This week, the port inventory of small granular urea in China is 420,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from last week, and an increase of 358,000 tons from the same period last year. The port volume of small granular urea decreased during the week, which is much higher than the same period last year.

This week, the company's inventory is about 224,000 tons, a decrease of 22,500 tons from last week; the total port inventory is 550,000 tons, a decrease of 14.46% from last week.

Compound Fertilizer Industry:

This week, the domestic compound fertilizer market price continues to operate at a high level. From the enterprise perspective, some companies have ample pending shipments, and a few orders can be maintained until the end of this month. Many companies have paused quotations and stopped taking orders. In terms of demand, it is currently the peak period for autumn fertilizer shipments, and the market is not in short supply. Due to the shortened autumn stockpiling time, dealers have started restocking plans, and the market atmosphere is improving. In the market, affected by the high upstream prices, compound fertilizer companies purchase cautiously and seek low prices for small replenishments. Overall, with ample pending shipments from companies, strong raw material support, and a booming market demand, it is expected that the compound fertilizer price will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

Melamine Industry:

This week, the melamine market price first rose and then stabilized, and the overall price is still high. From the enterprise perspective, the overall pre-received orders are sufficient, and the pending shipments are supportive. In terms of supply, the current company's production capacity utilization rate is low, and the market supply is small, which is favorable for the supply side and maintains the high operation of melamine prices. In terms of demand, downstream demand is small, market demand is low, new orders are limited, and the demand side is bearish. Overall, the melamine market has pending shipment support, a low operating rate, and limited demand. It is expected that the price will continue to maintain a slight consolidation operation.

International Market Quotation:

In the international market, the bulk small granule China FOB price is 370-375 USD/ton, the high-end price is reduced by 5 USD/ton; the Baltic FOB price is 315-350 USD/ton, adjusted up by 5-25 USD/ton.

The large granule China FOB price is 375-385 USD/ton, which is flat from last week; the Iranian large granule FOB price is 322-345 USD/ton, adjusted up by 12-15 USD/ton.

Market Outlook:

Supply: Many companies have paused quotations and are executing pre-received orders. The product orders are abundant, new orders are limited, and the market has a small amount of high-priced shipments.

Inventory: The inventory is low, the device is shut down for maintenance, the production capacity utilization rate is reduced, the supply of goods is reduced, and the overall supply is tight.

Demand: Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers have a good start to autumn fertilizer orders, supporting off-season demand. India has issued a new round of tenders, but domestic participation is expected to be low