August 3 International Forex News

August 4, 2026

FDD-global.com

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Highlights at a glance

USD/JPY witnessed a sharp 170-point decline, breaking below the crucial 156 level, marking its lowest since May 6. This was accompanied by a more than 1% intraday drop, highlighting intensified volatility in the forex market. Meanwhile, speculation about the Federal Reserve's actions continues, with CME FedWatch revealing a 73.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by September. Both the United States and Japan hinted at potential foreign exchange market intervention, adding further uncertainty to the outlook.

USD/JPY Drops 170 Points in the Short Term, Breaking Below 156

August 3: USD/JPY extended its decline to 170 points within 15 minutes, breaking below the 156 level for the first time since May 6 and falling more than 1% on the day. Earlier, both the United States and Japan said they would not hesitate to take further joint action to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

Probability of a 25-Basis-Point Fed Rate Hike in September Stands at 73.6%

August 3: According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged by September is 26.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 73.6%. By October, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 19.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 62.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 17.9%.

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