August 3 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Cooling Geopolitical Tensions Pressure Sulfur, Phosphate Fertilizer Market Remains Cautious and Deadlocked

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 3, China's 55% powdered MAP index was 4,410.00, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powdered MAP index was 4,710.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's MAP market continued to run weakly today. On the producer side, most factories were still fulfilling earlier orders. Prices for 55% material edged lower today, while actual transactions remained negotiable. In the market, seller sentiment was firm but constrained, buyers remained cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for price increases. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers maintained only small essential purchases, with low purchasing enthusiasm and limited new orders. On the raw material side, US President Trump said on Sunday US Eastern Time that strikes on Iran had been canceled, that an agreement related to the Strait of Hormuz was reportedly in place, that a denuclearization agreement on Iran's nuclear program was expected, and that US-Iran talks would begin tomorrow. As a result, geopolitical tensions cooled somewhat. Domestic sulfur prices weakened and consolidated today, with divergent trends. Recently, imported sulfur arrivals and inventories increased slightly, but overall inventories remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated weakly and the price center moved lower, while phosphate rock stayed high and stable, leaving cost-side support still relatively strong. Overall, the MAP market is expected to continue running weakly in the short term. Further attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stockbuilding, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 3, China's mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,432.50, unchanged from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's DAP market continued to operate in a wait-and-see mode today. On the producer side, some companies focused mainly on shipping earlier pending orders. Market prices showed no obvious changes. Continued increases in raw material prices provided a firm foundation for market prices, while actual transactions remained negotiable. On market side, the market  sentiment remained strongly wait-and-see. On the demand side, downstream purchasing was slow. Compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, purchasing willingness was generally weak, downstream inquiries were scattered, and actual order follow-through was relatively limited. On the raw material side, US President Trump said on Sunday US Eastern Time that strikes on Iran had been canceled, that an agreement related to the Strait of Hormuz was reportedly in place, that a denuclearization agreement on Iran's nuclear program was expected, and that US-Iran talks would begin tomorrow. As a result, geopolitical tensions cooled somewhat. Domestic sulfur prices weakened and consolidated today, with divergent trends. Recently, imported sulfur arrivals and inventories increased slightly, but overall inventories remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices consolidated weakly, while phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. High raw material costs continued to increase cost pressure and provide strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating in a wait-and-see pattern in the short term. Further attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 3, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,160.00, down 0.11% from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,140.00, down 0.11%; powder and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 9,110.00, down 0.11%; powder and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,090.00, down 0.11%; East China solid sulfur was 9,300.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was 9,145.00, down 0.27%.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

The sulfur market remained locked in a high-level stalemate today, with stronger competition between bullish and bearish factors. US President Trump said on Sunday US Eastern Time that the United States and Iran would soon begin talks and that a navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz was expected, briefly weakening the geopolitical risk premium. But doubts remain in the market. Whether negotiations can proceed smoothly and whether any agreement can be implemented steadily still need to be observed, leaving traders more cautious. Domestic port inventories are relatively low. The arrival pace of imported cargoes depends on smooth shipping through the Middle East, while domestic refinery sulfur supply remains stable. On the demand side, phosphate fertilizer producers are pressured by expensive raw materials and squeezed profitability. Most maintain essential purchases, with weak willingness to actively restock and only a few companies purchasing as needed. Other downstream chemical sectors are also buying as needed, with no support from concentrated stockbuilding, and price negotiations between upstream and downstream participants continue. Looking ahead, sulfur may mainly fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term. If US-Iran negotiations progress smoothly, shipping through the strait continues to recover, stranded Middle Eastern cargoes are shipped out in an orderly manner, and expectations for increased imports rise, the geopolitical premium will fall further and the market will face correction pressure. But repeated setbacks in negotiations should also be watched. If tensions flare again and expectations of blocked shipping routes return, prices will again receive support. In the medium term, global sulfur supply is unlikely to increase quickly, while the autumn phosphate fertilizer stockbuilding cycle is approaching and demand is expected to recover, providing support against downside price moves. Further attention should focus on US-Iran talks, actual navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, the arrival pace of overseas sulfur cargoes, and the recovery in domestic phosphate fertilizer operating rates.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 3: In Anhui, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,480-4,520/tonne delivered, with offers lowered.

August 3: In Northeast China, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 3: In Henan, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,430-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 3: In Hubei, mainstream ex-works prices for 55% powdered MAP were around RMB 4,350-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

August 3: In Jiangsu, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 3: In Shandong, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 3: In Sichuan, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 3: In Yunnan, ex-works prices for 55% powdered MAP were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

August 3: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

August 3: In Northeast China, 64% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

August 3: In Hebei, 57% DAP was offered for self-pickup at RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.

August 3: In Hubei, 64% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

August 3: In Shandong, 64% DAP was offered ex-warehouse for self-pickup at RMB 4,900-5,000/tonne, with offers stable; 57% DAP was offered at the station for self-pickup at RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.