September 30 Pesticide Daily : Quiet and Stable Ahead of the Holiday

The pesticide market continued to fluctuate overall. Market sentiment improved somewhat, but downstream buyers largely restricted purchases to immediate requirements, keeping the market broadly stable ahead of the holiday. Rising production costs have provided strong support for some products recently, while various factors have tightened supply, driving sharp price increases in the short term. However, difficulties in passing these increases along the value chain have also raised concerns that higher prices could dampen downstream demand. Market participants are therefore waiting to assess whether end-user demand can absorb further increases. Geopolitical conditions in the Middle East remain unsettled. Although negotiations between the United States and Iran are anticipated, the path to a peace agreement remains difficult, and shipping risks remain elevated at the two strategic chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Cost support across the petrochemical industry is unlikely to weaken sharply in the near term. Nevertheless, growing expectations of a ceasefire have increasingly shifted market expectations toward prices peaking and subsequently declining. Overall, market participants remain cautious. Some products have recorded substantial gains, while other categories have struggled to follow, resulting in pronounced divergence across the market and a persistent wait-and-see attitude. Key factors to monitor include shifts in geopolitical sentiment, export demand and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The herbicide market has shown signs of stabilization and recovery overall. Rising raw material prices have supported a recovery in producer pricing for major products, including glufosinate and glyphosate. Although geopolitical news remains changeable, the resulting cost pressures are unlikely to ease quickly. Market participants are still looking for further catalysts to support downstream buying. Glufosinate prices have jumped sharply recently, mainly because of tight production and rising prices for upstream intermediates, alongside international political developments. Attention is focused on transaction activity following these substantial increases and whether the gains can be sustained. Prices of substitute products have also begun to rise. Overall, downstream buyers continue to purchase mainly for immediate requirements, and demand remains cautious.

Yellow Phosphorus: Yellow phosphorus prices remained broadly stable today, with subdued market activity ahead of the holiday. Producers mainly focused on fulfilling existing orders. Relatively strong shipments earlier in the period have gradually eased pressure on producers to reduce inventories, while spot supply remains somewhat tight. Producers therefore retain some ability to hold prices firm, with some limiting sales volumes after prices stabilized. Downstream buyers, however, continue to purchase moderate quantities for immediate needs. With limited scope for further downstream restocking ahead of the holiday, trading and transportation have largely come to a standstill. Market participants are waiting to see whether producers face renewed pressure to move inventories after the holiday.

Pesticide Market Price Overview

Insecticides:

96% technical-grade lambda-cyhalothrin rose by RMB 2,000/mt to RMB 108,000/mt. 96% technical-grade bifenthrin rose by RMB 2,000/mt to RMB 128,000/mt. 97% technical-grade imidacloprid rose by RMB 2,000/mt to RMB 72,000/mt. 97% technical-grade acetamiprid rose by RMB 1,000/mt to RMB 59,000/mt. 96% technical-grade thiamethoxam rose by RMB 1,000/mt to RMB 55,000/mt. 97% technical-grade nitenpyram rose by RMB 7,000/mt to RMB 120,000/mt. 97% technical-grade pymetrozine rose by RMB 1,000/mt to RMB 95,000/mt. 97% technical-grade dinotefuran rose by RMB 5,000/mt to RMB 125,000/mt.

Fungicides:

97% technical-grade tebuconazole rose by RMB 2,000/mt to RMB 49,000/mt. 98% technical-grade azoxystrobin fell by RMB 4,000/mt to RMB 116,000/mt. 98% technical-grade fludioxonil fell by RMB 5,000/mt to RMB 485,000/mt.