Phosphate Fertilizer Monthly: Weaker Cost Support and Persistent Demand Pressure (September 2026)

01 Phosphate Fertilizer Price Analysis and Market Outlook

1.1 MAP Price Analysis

China’s domestic monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market continued to decline throughout September. New orders remained weak, while falling feedstock prices eroded cost support. Combined with subdued demand, this gradually increased producers’ inventory pressure and pushed prevailing prices lower. At the beginning of the month, weak downstream demand made it difficult for producers to secure orders, prompting price cuts and promotional sales to reduce inventories and weighing on market sentiment. Although news related to an industry meeting briefly lifted sentiment and prompted the withdrawal of some low-priced offers, these developments failed to improve the underlying fundamentals, and the market soon weakened again. Shipments of finished compound fertilizers improved slightly during the month, but downstream producers continued to prioritize drawing down existing inventories. Operating rates recovered slowly, and MAP purchases remained limited to essential replenishment, with buyers pressing for lower prices. This provided little support for new order volumes. The decline accelerated late in the month as traders liquidated inventories at low prices and small and medium-sized producers cut prices to secure orders and move stock. Panic selling spread, and market quotations became increasingly disorderly. Meanwhile, further declines in sulfuric acid prices weakened cost support, downstream buying interest continued to contract, and trading activity slowed. The market remained weak under pressure from unfavorable supply-demand conditions and falling feedstock prices.

According Fdd calculation, as of September 29, 2026, the domestic 55% powdered MAP price index stood at 3,893.75, down 428.75 from the beginning of the month, a decline of 9.92%. The 55% granular MAP index stood at 4,300.00, down 125.00, or 2.82%, while the 58% powdered MAP index stood at 4,350.00, down 316.67, or 6.79%.

During the first half of the month, the market fluctuated downward, and brief positive developments failed to reverse the weak trend. Downstream fertilizer demand remained subdued, producers struggled to secure orders, and inventories continued to build. Producers proactively reduced prices to stimulate sales, significantly weakening trading sentiment. News related to an industry meeting temporarily prompted the withdrawal of low-priced offers and supported a brief recovery in sentiment. However, fundamentals showed no material improvement, the positive momentum faded, and prices soon resumed their downward trend. Around mid-month, shipments of finished compound fertilizers improved slightly, but downstream producers continued to focus on reducing their own inventories. Operating rates recovered slowly, and MAP purchases remained limited to small volumes for immediate requirements. Buyers showed a clear preference for negotiating lower prices, providing little support for new order growth. Low-priced supplies continued to emerge, and transaction prices moved lower.

During the second half of the month, price declines accelerated and panic spread across the market. MAP prices fell more rapidly in late September. Traders initially liquidated inventories at low prices, followed by some small and medium-sized producers offering discounts to secure orders and increase shipments, intensifying competition. Continued market weakness further undermined downstream purchasing confidence, strengthened the wait-and-see attitude, and reduced restocking interest. Panic spread among traders, and market quotations became increasingly disorderly. At the same time, sulfuric acid prices continued to decline, further weakening cost support. Trading activity remained subdued, and the market weakened sharply under the combined pressure of sluggish demand and falling feedstock prices.

1.2 DAP Price Analysis

China’s domestic diammonium phosphate (DAP) market fluctuated with a downward bias in September. Producers maintained firm offers early in the month, but demand developed slowly, and more traders discounted supplies to move stock, putting prices under pressure. Around mid-month, demand at the farm level gradually emerged and shipments accelerated, briefly improving market conditions. However, follow-through buying remained insufficient to generate a sustained recovery. Late in the month, end-user demand continued to develop slowly, new transactions remained limited, and downstream buyers purchased only as needed. Supply was ample, some traders faced mounting pressure, and prices for lower-analysis products moved lower amid a pronounced wait-and-see attitude. On the raw material side, sulfur prices consolidated within a narrow range, sulfuric acid prices declined, and phosphate rock prices remained stable. Cost support weakened at the margin, although production costs remained relatively high. Overall, the market remained caught between cost support and weak demand, with no clear price direction. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with a downward bias in the short term. Key factors to monitor include feedstock price movements, downstream buying and changes in export policy.

According to FDD calculations, as of September 29, 2026, the domestic 64% granular DAP price index stood at 4,546.67, down 16.67 from the beginning of the month, a decline of 0.37%. The 60% brown DAP index stood at 4,600.00, down 100.00, or 2.13%, while the 57% DAP index stood at 4,262.50, down 130.00, or 2.96%.

During the first half of the month, DAP offers remained firm, but slow demand put prices under pressure. Producers maintained firm quotations early in the month, with actual transactions negotiated case by case. However, market activity picked up slowly, and downstream purchasing showed no acceleration. As a result, some traders became more willing to offer discounts to move stock. Low-priced supplies gradually increased, pushing prices lower. Around mid-month, demand at the farm level began to emerge, shipments improved compared with the earlier period, and trading sentiment briefly recovered. Most participants maintained a steady, wait-and-see approach. Nevertheless, overall buying momentum remained insufficient to establish a sustained market recovery.

During the second half of the month, DAP demand remained slow, transactions were limited, and the market continued to consolidate with a downward bias. Late in the month, producer prices showed no significant easing, but end-user demand continued to develop more slowly than expected, and new order activity remained limited. Downstream buyers continued to purchase strictly according to immediate requirements. Market supply was relatively ample, some traders faced mounting pressure, and quotations became somewhat disorderly. Shipments through industrial and agricultural channels diverged, prices for lower-analysis products moved lower, and market participants remained cautious.

1.3 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook

On the raw material side,

Phosphate Rock: Resource constraints remain in place, limiting the scope for a significant improvement in supply. Phosphate fertilizer production continues to generate essential demand, and prices are expected to fluctuate at elevated levels.

Sulfur: Holiday-related factors are affecting the market, with participants adopting a pronounced wait-and-see attitude in the short term. Subsequent price movements will depend on the pace of post-holiday operating rate recovery among downstream phosphate fertilizer producers and the destination of international supplies. Prices are likely to remain rangebound.

Sulfuric Acid: Prices are expected to track changes in sulfur feedstock costs while also adjusting to phosphate fertilizer producers’ production schedules.

Overall, the three main phosphate fertilizer feedstocks remain closely linked. Feedstock support persists, but downstream fertilizer demand has yet to provide a strong catalyst. A sustained directional trend is therefore unlikely in the near term. Particular attention should be paid to changes in phosphate fertilizer producers’ production and restocking schedules after the holiday.

Supply and Demand

On the supply side, fluctuations in upstream feedstock prices are prompting some producers to adjust plant operations flexibly, allowing supply volumes to respond to market conditions. Production costs continue to provide some price support. Around the holiday, producers are focusing on orderly shipments, with no concentrated surge in supply so far.

On the demand side, autumn restocking at the farm level is progressing slowly. Downstream compound fertilizer producers continue to purchase according to immediate requirements, and large-scale replenishment has yet to begin. Market participants remain cautious. Key factors to monitor include post-holiday fertilizer demand at the farm level and the emergence of export orders.

Overall, the balance between supply and demand will continue to shape the market. Phosphate fertilizer prices are likely to fluctuate in the short term, with no clear sustained directional trend.

02 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Operating Rates

2.1 Domestic MAP Operating Rates

The domestic MAP industry’s average operating rate was approximately 48.06% this month, down 6.78% month on month and 22.03% year on year. Operating rates declined during the month and remained below the level recorded a year earlier.

2.2 Domestic DAP Operating Rates

The domestic DAP industry’s average operating rate was approximately 47.68% this month, up 1.83% month on month but down 18.28% year on year. Operating rates increased during the month but remained below the level recorded a year earlier.

03 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Production Trends

3.1 Domestic MAP Production Trends

According FDD data, domestic MAP production totaled 826,600 mt this month, down 169,000 mt, or 16.97%, from the previous month. Production decreased by 238,700 mt, or 22.41%, compared with the same period last year.

3.2 Domestic DAP Production Trends

According FDD data, domestic DAP production totaled approximately 911,600 mt this month, up 5,800 mt from the previous month, with a reported month-on-month decline of 33.15%. Production decreased by 331,500 mt, or 26.67%, compared with the same period last year.

04 China’s Phosphate Fertilizer Exports

4.1 China’s MAP Exports

According to customs data, China exported 0 mt of MAP in August 2026, down 400 mt, or 100.00%, month on month and 440,700 mt, or 100.00%, year on year. The reported average export price was $0.00/mt. Cumulative exports for January–December 2026 were reported at 113,000 mt, down 928,600 mt, or 89.15%, from the same period last year.

4.2 China’s DAP Exports

According to customs data, China exported 0 mt of DAP in August 2026, unchanged from the previous month, with a reported month-on-month decline of 0.00%. Exports decreased by 545,200 mt, or 100.00%, year on year. The reported average export price was $0/mt. Cumulative exports for January–December 2026 were reported at 73,900 mt, down 2,054,600 mt, or 96.53%, from the previous year.

05 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Apparent Consumption

5.1 Domestic MAP Apparent Consumption

China’s apparent MAP consumption totaled 993,600 mt in August 2026, up 28,500 mt, or 2.95%, month on month and 297,500 mt, or 42.73%, year on year. Cumulative apparent consumption for January–August 2026 reached 7,656,500 mt, up 880,300 mt, or 12.99%, from the same period last year.

5.2 Domestic DAP Apparent Consumption

China’s apparent DAP consumption totaled 896,500 mt in August 2026, up 107,100 mt, or 13.57%, month on month and 166,000 mt, or 22.73%, year on year. Cumulative apparent consumption for January–August 2026 reached 7,222,400 mt, up 470,000 mt, or 6.96%, from the same period last year.

06 Domestic Phosphate Fertilizer Port Inventory Trends

6.1 Domestic MAP Port Inventory Trends

At the end of the month, MAP inventories at China’s major ports stood at 0 mt, unchanged from the previous month-end, with a month-on-month decline of 0.00%. Inventories decreased by 15,000 mt, or 100.00%, year on year. Major-port MAP inventories remained unchanged during the month and below the level recorded a year earlier.

6.2 Domestic DAP Port Inventory Trends

At the end of the month, DAP inventories at China’s major ports stood at 29,500 mt, unchanged from the previous month-end, with a month-on-month decline of 0.00%. Inventories decreased by 240,500 mt, or 89.07%, year on year. Major-port DAP inventories showed no significant change during the month and remained below the level recorded a year earlier.

07 Monthly Sulfur Price Analysis

7.1 Domestic Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook

China’s domestic sulfur market fluctuated downward overall in September. In the international market, Middle Eastern official selling prices were stable to weaker, while reports of transactions in Indonesia weighed significantly on domestic spot-market sentiment. International suppliers came under pressure as demand contracted, and overseas prices eased. After weighing procurement costs against market expectations, importers became more willing to sell and proactively reduced prices, driving the domestic market lower. Domestic supply remained generally adequate, with production recovering slightly and imports providing additional availability. Demand, however, continued to weaken. Most downstream industries were in their seasonal lull, and sulfur-based sulfuric acid production costs remained high. Downstream buyers favored lower-priced supplies and showed limited interest in restocking. Autumn fertilizer replenishment progressed more slowly than expected, keeping purchasing sentiment cautious. Early in the month, active buying inquiries and sellers’ efforts to hold prices firm briefly supported a recovery. Once replenishment under long-term contracts ended, inquiries declined. Rumors of lower-priced purchases further encouraged a wait-and-see attitude, forcing sellers to repeatedly adjust prices to move stock. Buyers remained reluctant to purchase into a falling market, and trading stayed subdued. Late in the month, offers for port supplies continued to decline, several domestic producers’ sales auctions failed to attract successful bids, and transaction volumes struggled to increase. With the two holidays approaching, upstream suppliers largely presold holiday supplies to reduce inventories in advance. Pricing remained cautious, limiting upside potential. Regionally, prices in Northeast China were stable to lower. Purchases from buyers outside the region and changes in plant operations briefly supported prices around mid-month, but activity weakened again late in the month, with producers mainly selling at prevailing levels. Northwest China recorded a marked month-on-month decline. Buying interest improved slightly after prices fluctuated at low levels early in the month, but downstream buyers remained unwilling to accept higher prices. Prices followed declines at ports outside the region around mid-month. Late in the month, unsuccessful auctions continued, producers actively reduced inventories, and lower-priced offers fell further, leaving limited scope for recovery. Overall, the sulfur spot market continued to decline under the combined pressure of contracting demand, weaker international prices, low market confidence and inventory reduction ahead of the holidays. Regional markets generally weakened, and trading activity remained subdued.

According FDD calculations, on September 29, 2026, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at RMB 7,100.00/mt, down RMB 450/mt from the beginning of the month. Granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at RMB 7,080.00/mt, down RMB 450/mt from the previous working day. Powdered/lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at RMB 7,050.00/mt, down RMB 450/mt from the previous working day, while powdered/lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was priced at RMB 7,030.00/mt, also down RMB 450/mt. Solid sulfur in East China was priced at RMB 7,200.00/mt, down RMB 500/mt from the previous working day, while liquid sulfur was priced at RMB 7,345.00/mt, down RMB 30/mt.

08 Domestic Sulfur Operating Rates

8.1 Domestic Sulfur Operating Rates

The domestic sulfur industry’s average operating rate was approximately 49.04% this month, up 3.73% month on month. Operating rates increased during the month as more producers resumed operations and some major plants increased supply, supporting modest growth in overall domestic production and operating rates.

8.2 Domestic Sulfur Production Trends

Domestic sulfur production totaled approximately 891,100 mt this month, up 34,100 mt, or 3.98%, from the previous month. Production increased during the month as more producers resumed operations and some major plants increased supply, supporting modest growth in overall domestic production and operating rates.

09 Domestic Sulfur Port Inventory Trends

At the end of the month, sulfur inventories at China’s major ports stood at 936,900 mt, down 11,400 mt from the previous month-end, with a reported month-on-month decline of 1.48%. Inventories decreased by 1,437,700 mt, or 60.54%, year on year. Major-port sulfur inventories declined during the month and remained below the level recorded a year earlier. Limited arrivals at major ports, together with moderate withdrawals by some downstream plants, contributed to the month-on-month inventory decline.

10 Domestic Solid Sulfur Port Arrival Trends

According to FDD data, preliminary figures put September solid sulfur arrivals at China’s major ports at approximately 7,500 mt, including around 3,500 mt at ports in the Yangtze River region.