August 5 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review: Cost Support and Weak Demand Continue to Contend, Phosphate Fertilizer Market Remains in Consolidation and Wait-and-See Mode

MAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 5, China's 55% powdered MAP index was 4,410.00, unchanged from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powdered MAP index was 4,710.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's MAP market continued weak consolidation today. On the producer side, most factories were still fulfilling earlier orders, traders' offers varied, market prices were temporarily stable, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, seller sentiment was firm but constrained, buyers remained cautious and wait-and-see, and traders were reluctant to sell while waiting for price increases. On the demand side, inquiries from some downstream compound fertilizer producers have increased recently, along with the release of a small number of tenders, but purchases remain limited to small essential volumes and new orders are limited. On the raw material side, recent US-Iran talks around navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to release positive signals, but the core conflict has not been resolved. Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, confrontation between the two sides continues, and geopolitical risk has not been fully cleared, leaving potential disruption risks for the global energy supply chain. Domestic sulfur prices were deadlocked and consolidated today, with divergent trends, while overall sulfur port inventories remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation. Phosphate rock stayed high and stable, leaving cost-side support still relatively strong. Overall, the MAP market is expected to continue running weakly in the short term. Further attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stockbuilding, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 5, China's mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, unchanged from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,437.50, down 0.17% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's DAP market continued to consolidate in a wait-and-see mode today. On the producer side, some companies focused mainly on shipping earlier pending orders, market prices showed no obvious changes, and actual transactions remained negotiable. On the market side, sentiment remained strongly wait-and-see. On the demand side, downstream purchasing was slow. Compound fertilizer plants mostly maintained low operating rates, purchasing willingness was generally weak, downstream inquiries were scattered, and actual order follow-through was relatively limited. On the raw material side, recent US-Iran talks around navigation through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to release positive signals, but the core conflict has not been resolved. Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, confrontation between the two sides continues, and geopolitical risk has not been fully cleared, leaving potential disruption risks for the global energy supply chain. Domestic sulfur prices were deadlocked and consolidated today, with divergent trends, while overall sulfur port inventories remained relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices continued weak consolidation. Phosphate rock prices remained high and stable, with raw material costs staying elevated and cost pressure continuing to increase, providing strong support to the market. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue consolidating in the short term. Further attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to Feidoodoo data, on August 5, granular sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was priced at 9,150.00, unchanged from the previous working day; granular sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,130.00, unchanged from the previous working day; powder and lump sulfur at Zhenjiang Port was 9,100.00, unchanged from the previous working day; powder and lump sulfur at Dafeng Port was 9,080.00, unchanged from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was 9,300.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was 9,100.00, unchanged from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

China's domestic sulfur market was deadlocked and consolidating today, with overall trading sentiment subdued. On one hand, US-Iran talks have released positive signals, and Qatar's foreign ministry also confirmed that all parties are working to cool the situation in the Middle East. At the same time, however, Iran denied direct talks with the United States, stressing that it is currently only consulting with Oman on strait management matters and requiring full control over vessels entering the Persian Gulf. Divergent statements from all parties mean that the outlook for restored navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains highly uncertain, and the geopolitical risk premium has not fully faded. In the sulfur market, domestic trading remained quiet today. Buy and sell offers were scarce, and actual negotiations were limited. On the supply side, there were no arrivals at ports, circulating resources remained tight, and Fangchenggang mainly saw factory cargoes transported back. Downstream end users still needed to purchase supplementary supply from surrounding markets after consuming their own cargoes, while port replenishment was limited. Low port inventories in recent years provided price support, but downstream phosphate fertilizer, titanium dioxide, and other industries were squeezed by high raw material costs, with limited operating rates and cautious procurement, leaving demand without effective support. Repeated fluctuations in the Middle East geopolitical situation remain the largest sentiment variable in the current market. Positive signals from negotiations and continued escalation of conflict are appearing alternately, making it difficult for market participants to form consistent expectations, and wait-and-see behavior has become the mainstream choice. Looking ahead, if no new stimulus breaks the current balance, sulfur prices are expected to remain in relatively high-level consolidation. The key focus is substantive progress in negotiations over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. If an agreement is reached and earlier stranded cargoes arrive at ports in a concentrated manner, supply pressure may ease. Conversely, if the situation escalates again, the market may see another pulse-like rebound. In addition, the actual implementation of autumn fertilizer stockbuilding will determine the upper limit of sulfur demand in the third quarter. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, the probability of a short-term directional breakout is low, and the high-level fluctuation pattern may continue.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

August 5: In Anhui, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,480-4,520/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 5: In Northeast China, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 5: In Henan, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,430-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 5: In Hubei, mainstream ex-works prices for 55% powdered MAP were around RMB 4,350-4,450/tonne, with offers stable.

August 5: In Jiangsu, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 5: In Shandong, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 5: In Sichuan, 55% powdered MAP was offered at around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne delivered, with offers stable.

August 5: In Yunnan, ex-works prices for 55% powdered MAP were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with offers stable.

August 5: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with offers stable.

August 5: In Northeast China, 64% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with offers stable.

August 5: In Hebei, 57% DAP was offered for self-pickup at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers stable.

August 5: In Hubei, 64% DAP was offered ex-works for self-pickup at RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with offers stable.

August 5: In Shandong, 64% DAP was offered ex-warehouse for self-pickup at RMB 4,900-5,000/tonne, with offers stable; 57% DAP was offered at the station for self-pickup at RMB 4,400-4,500/tonne, with offers lowered.