October 8 Phosphate Fertilizer Daily : Subdued and Soft-Stable, Market Cautious

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) price index:

According to estimates by FDD: on October 8, the domestic MAP 55% powder index stood at 3,831.25, down 20.00 from the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4,250.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 4,350.00, also unchanged from the previous working day.

MAP market analysis and outlook:

Today the domestic MAP market continued to soften. On the supply side, most plants are still executing earlier orders, and neither plants nor traders are issuing firm quotations, with actual transactions concluded on a negotiated basis. On the market side, supply is ample and the trading atmosphere is deadlocked and quiet. On the demand side, some downstream compound fertilizer producers have released a portion of their requirements, but purchasing remains limited to essential needs; market sentiment is cautious and demand remains weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices trended soft today; sulfur port inventories remain at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices trended soft; and the phosphate rock market was broadly stable. Continued declines in feedstock prices have somewhat weakened the cost support available to producers. In summary, the MAP market is characterized by marginally weakening cost support alongside a lackluster demand recovery, and is expected to maintain a soft downward bias in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to feedstock price trends, the pace of downstream autumn fertilizer demand, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Regional market prices are as follows:

DAP (diammonium phosphate) price index:

According to estimates by FDD: on October 8, the domestic DAP mainstream 64% granular index stood at 4,808.33, down 0.17% from the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,600.00, unchanged from the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 4,162.50, down 1.77% from the previous working day.

DAP market analysis and outlook:

Today the domestic DAP market continued to trade in a soft, steady manner. On the supply side, some producers are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders; quotations remain firm, and actual transactions are still concluded on a negotiated basis. On the market side, a wait-and-see mood is pronounced. On the demand side, demand release at the grassroots level downstream is slow; purchasing is largely confined to small essential-requirement lots, with participants remaining cautious and on the sidelines and large-scale procurement yet to commence. Some traders are under pressure and market prices are drifting lower. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices were soft and steady today; sulfur port inventories remain at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices continued to decline; and the phosphate rock market was broadly stable. Feedstock prices on the cost side have all moved lower, weakening their support to the market. In summary, the DAP market is expected to remain in a soft, range-bound consolidation in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in feedstock prices, downstream demand follow-through, and any later adjustments to export policy.

Regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur market prices:

According to estimates by FDD: on October 8, the domestic sulfur price for granular material at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,100/t, flat versus the previous working day; granular material at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,080/t, flat; lump/powder material at Zhenjiang Port was RMB 7,050/t, flat; lump/powder material at Dafeng Port was RMB 7,030/t, flat; the East China solid price was RMB 7,200/t, flat; and the East China liquid price was RMB 7,295/t, down RMB 50/t from the previous working day.

Sulfur market analysis and outlook:

Today the domestic sulfur market overall traded soft and steady. At the ports, the post-holiday market remained subdued: although the geopolitical situation has provided some support to sentiment, weak demand has been unable to generate upward momentum. Domestically, following the earlier failure of high-level auctions in Shandong, prices have continued to retreat; as inventory pressure at local refineries rebounded, market prices fell sharply. However, with prices having come down, some essential-requirement buying has entered the market, which may provide a degree of support and encouragement to sentiment. At present, tradable granular sulfur cargoes at the ports are limited, and traders' wait-and-see stance has deepened - some are unwilling to actively offload cargo, and the intention to defend prices persists. Downstream phosphate fertilizer and sulfuric acid producers continue to purchase rationally, mostly covering requirements as needed, without any pre-holiday stockpiling drive; actual enquiry and purchasing activity is not brisk and physical transaction volumes remain limited. Internationally, the geopolitical situation continues to create uncertainty, and potential risks to overseas supply and shipping keep unsettling domestic market sentiment. Costs and availability provide a degree of support, but weak downstream follow-through acts as a counterweight. With bulls and bears vying for position, the market is unlikely to establish a clear direction in the near term, and participants are waiting for signals from changes in downstream operating rates and the arrival of imported cargoes.

Regional market quotations are as follows:

Phosphate fertilizer market news and updates:

Oct 8: Anhui MAP market, 55% powder, delivered at around RMB 3,800-3,900/t; quotation revised down.

Oct 8: Northeast China MAP market, 55% powder, delivered at around RMB 3,900-4,000/t; quotation revised down.

Oct 8: Henan MAP market, 55% powder, delivered at around RMB 3,750-3,850/t; quotation revised down.

Oct 8: Hubei MAP market, 55% powder, mainstream ex-works price at around RMB 3,650-3,800/t; quotation revised down.

Oct 8: Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder, delivered at around RMB 3,850-3,900/t; quotation held steady.

Oct 8: Shandong MAP market, 55% powder, delivered quotation at around RMB 3,800-3,900/t; quotation held steady.

Oct 8: Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder, delivered quotation at around RMB 3,650-3,750/t; quotation revised down.

Oct 8: Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder, ex-works price at around RMB 3,700-3,800/t; quotation held steady.

Oct 8: Shaanxi DAP market, 60% content, ex-works self-pickup quotation at RMB 4,600-4,650/t; quotation held steady.

Oct 8: Northeast China DAP market, 64% content, ex-works self-pickup quotation at RMB 5,000-5,050/t; quotation held steady.

Oct 8: Hebei DAP market, 57% content, self-pickup quotation at RMB 4,200-4,250/t; quotation revised down.

Oct 8: Hubei DAP market, 64% content, ex-works self-pickup quotation at RMB 4,800-4,850/t; quotation held steady.

Oct 8: Shandong DAP market, 64% content, ex-warehouse quotation at RMB 4,700-4,900/t; quotation revised down; 57% content, self-pickup station quotation at RMB 4,100-4,200/t; quotation revised down.