November 11 Phosphate Daily: Divergence Extends, Waiting on a Demand Shift

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on November 11 the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3,667.50, flat versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 3,925.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 3,866.67, flat versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic MAP market remained basically steady. On the enterprise side, most factories are executing earlier orders only sporadically, with individual new deals improving on the back of policy sentiment and low-end quotations in some local markets repairing somewhat; most enterprises have temporarily stopped quoting externally, and the market as a whole remains in a wait-and-see mode. On the market side, supply keeps declining, but new orders are following up only modestly and the trading atmosphere is stalemated and quiet. On the demand side, autumn fertilization is basically winding down, market inventory is ample, low-end cargo is still appearing, and some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises continue to purchase only on rigid demand without rushing to place new orders; market sentiment is fairly cautious and demand remains rather weak. On the raw material side, domestic sulfur prices have recently stabilized and repaired, sulphuric acid prices held steady for the time being, and the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; after raw material prices stabilized at the cost end, the negative feedback pressure on finished phosphate fertilizers may ease. Overall, the MAP market currently remains in a pattern of weakening cost support combined with feeble demand recovery. The policy side has not yet delivered a clear bullish driver, the core policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is unchanged, and the export outlook is not encouraging in the short term; however, the policy intent signaled by the industry association to eliminate below-cost involution, vicious competition and other undesirable behavior also provides some support to prices. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the rhythm of downstream reserve demand, and how export policy and geopolitical developments transmit to the cost side.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

MAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, on November 11 the domestic mainstream DAP 64% granular index was 4,641.67, down 66.67 versus the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4,100.00, down 50 versus the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 3,875.00, flat versus the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic DAP market continued to run weak and steady. On the enterprise side, companies are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders, prices temporarily lack a driver, and actual deals remain on a negotiated basis. On the market side, although policy headlines have disturbed market sentiment, the overall weak reality still lacks a clear driver for improvement. On the demand side, autumn fertilization is essentially in its closing stage, low prices are frequent, the trading atmosphere is stalemated and quiet, downstream purchasing is concentrated in small, rigid-demand orders, some traders are under pressure, and overall quotations are mainly weak and steady. On the raw material side, the domestic sulfur market has recently stabilized and repaired, sulphuric acid prices were steady to slightly adjusted, and the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; after cost-side raw material prices stabilize, the negative feedback pressure on downstream finished products may gradually ease. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak and steady posture in the short term; the policy side has not yet provided a clear driver, but with a strong intent to put a floor under prices, a halt to the decline and stabilization is possible. Going forward, close attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

DAP Market Prices (yuan/t)

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data estimates, on November 11 the domestic sulfur price for granular cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,900 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; granular cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,880 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; lump and powder cargo at Zhenjiang Port was 4,850 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; lump and powder cargo at Dafeng Port was 4,830 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was 5,300 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was 4,805 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Outlook:

Today the domestic sulfur market as a whole moved in a narrow range. At the ports, the spot market for granular sulfur at Yangtze River ports was broadly steady: after prices moved relatively lower, rigid-demand buying entered and buying enthusiasm improved somewhat, but sustainability and strength still need to be weighed; without incremental demand or outside information to lift it, most participants are standing aside and waiting, holders hold differing views and are watching how buying follows through, with fairly limited confidence in raising offers. In the Shandong liquid sulfur market, concluded prices fluctuated in a narrow range, downstream buyers mainly took goods on rigid demand, some refineries shipped little and the release of cargo was limited; after downstream rigid-demand follow-through, willingness to take further cargo is temporarily limited, sentiment has eased slightly, and the number of failed auctions has increased. Overall, a cautious mood persists in the market, the sustainability of rigid demand is fairly limited after its appropriate release, and the market cannot form an overly optimistic expectation, with most participants waiting for a clear driver of improvement in downstream and terminal demand. In addition, the continued easing of the international sentiment premium still weighs on the domestic market; although the near-term US-Iran negotiation path is tortuous, the direction of talks has not been broken, expectations of supply recovery persist, and recent news of production cuts in Indonesia's nickel smelting industry is also pressuring international prices, so the market is currently watching whether international prices can stop falling and stabilize. However, changes in domestic demand currently influence the market more strongly than supply disruptions, and the market remains focused on whether downstream demand can repair further once sulfur prices stop falling and stabilize.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Regional Market Quotations (yuan/t)

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News and Updates:

Nov 11: The Anhui MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,700-3,800 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 11: The Northeast MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,800-3,850 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 11: The Henan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 11: The Hubei MAP market quoted mainstream 55% powder ex-works at around 3,600-3,650 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 11: The Jiangsu MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 11: The Shandong MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,650-3,700 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 11: The Sichuan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivered at around 3,550-3,650 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 11: The Yunnan MAP market quoted 55% powder ex-works at around 3,450-3,550 yuan/t, with quotations up 50 yuan/t.

Nov 11: Shaanxi quoted DAP 60% ex-works for self-pickup at 4,000-4,150 yuan/t, with quotations down 100 yuan/t.

Nov 11: The Northeast region quoted DAP 64% ex-works for self-pickup at 4,800-4,900 yuan/t, with quotations down 50 yuan/t.

Nov 11: Hebei quoted DAP 57% for self-pickup at 3,800-3,950 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 11: The Hubei region quoted DAP 64% ex-works for self-pickup at 4,700-4,850 yuan/t, with quotations steady.

Nov 11: The Shandong region quoted DAP 64% ex-warehouse for self-pickup at 4,500-4,800 yuan/t, with quotations steady; 57% for self-pickup at the station was quoted at 3,800-3,900 yuan/t, with quotations steady.