Daily Macro Morning Briefing 2026-11-13

Global Key Indices - Latest Readings

Domestic Macroeconomic Indices

2026 Macroeconomic Indices

Contents

Domestic News

1. Fuel prices cut tonight: domestic gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 645 yuan and 625 yuan per tonne respectively

2. Ministry of Commerce: China and the US are in close communication on tariff reductions, trade and investment

3. CSRC: further broaden the sources, channels and entry methods of medium- and long-term capital to fully maintain stable market operation

4. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: national industry-finance cooperation platform has helped enterprises raise over 1.8 trillion yuan

5. Foreign Ministry: China urges the G7 to mind its own affairs and fulfill its own responsibilities

6. Over 5,000 metres deep, about 800,000 cubic metres a day: a major breakthrough in finding gas in volcanic rock

7. Yin Yanlin: expanding domestic demand should be given greater priority next year

8. Fujian Province issues its Action Plan for Advancing "AI Plus" (2026-2028)

International News

1. Tanker struck by an unidentified projectile in the Persian Gulf, with multiple casualties

2. Is oil no longer the key? The hardest part of US inflation may lie outside energy

3. Goolsbee: US inflation is at a dangerous moment and must be kept from worsening

4. Russian diesel exports double after Trump lifts sanctions, but not a single barrel reaches the US

5. Russia steps up attacks on Ukrainian agricultural facilities, posing a new threat to global food supply

6. Guterres: energy companies reaping huge profits from global conflict is morally indefensible

7. Fed's Daly: further rate hikes may be necessary to curb inflation

8. After the war premium fades, crude faces a real test of supply and demand | Crude Oil Headlines

Domestic News

1. Fuel prices cut tonight: domestic gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 645 yuan and 625 yuan per tonne respectively

The National Development and Reform Commission announced that since the domestic refined product price adjustment on October 29, international crude oil prices have fluctuated lower, and the average price over the first ten working days of this pricing cycle is below the average over the ten working days preceding the last adjustment. In line with changes in international oil prices, from 24:00 on November 12 domestic gasoline and diesel (standard grades) prices are cut by 645 yuan and 625 yuan per tonne respectively.

2. Ministry of Commerce: China and the US are in close communication on tariff reductions, trade and investment

He Yadong, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said at the ministry's regular press conference on the 12th that the "30 billion for 30 billion" reciprocal tariff-reduction framework helps stabilize and expand China-US bilateral trade, and business communities in both countries have high expectations for it. At present, the two sides are in close communication on implementing this arrangement. China hopes the US will work with it to bring the arrangement into effect as soon as possible and create more favorable conditions for bilateral agricultural trade. On economic and trade consultations, China and the US are in close communication on their respective concerns in trade, investment and other areas, and progress will be announced in due course.

3. CSRC: further broaden the sources, channels and entry methods of medium- and long-term capital to fully maintain stable market operation

A vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a speech at the 2026 Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investor Conference that the Chinese government attaches great importance to the stable and healthy development of the capital market. The CSRC will firmly implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the requirements of the recent State Council executive meeting, improve market-stabilizing mechanisms, strengthen the inherent stability of the stock market, work jointly with relevant departments and deliver a coordinated policy package to stabilize the market and expectations. It will make full and good use of the two structural monetary policy tools; securities companies and fund managers have already carried out a third batch of swap facility operations worth 100 billion yuan. It will support listed companies in stepping up buybacks and shareholding increases: this year, the amount of newly disclosed buyback plans, actual buybacks, buyback cancellations and their share have all reached record highs. It will enrich market investment tools, increase the supply and innovation of equity products, and guide and encourage active ETFs to accelerate portfolio building. It will further broaden the sources, channels and entry methods of medium- and long-term capital, promote the countercyclical adjustment function of margin trading and securities lending, pool efforts from all sides and fully maintain stable market operation.

4. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: national industry-finance cooperation platform has helped enterprises raise over 1.8 trillion yuan

It was learned from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that the national industry-finance cooperation platform has now helped enterprises raise more than 1.8 trillion yuan, with over 400,000 companies registered on the platform. The platform is a non-profit public service platform built on the data resources of the ministry and relevant financial institutions, providing customized and intelligent financial services to enterprises. To match corporate financing needs precisely with financial products, the platform has established a data-sharing mechanism covering multiple departments and institutions, and draws on the value of data models and algorithms by integrating tags for key enterprises. As of October 2026, 460,000 enterprises were registered on the platform, of which manufacturing enterprises accounted for 60%.

5. Foreign Ministry: China urges the G7 to mind its own affairs and fulfill its own responsibilities

On November 12, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning chaired a regular press conference. A Reuters reporter asked for China's comment on a statement issued after the G7 meeting claiming that China's increasingly assertive actions in waters east of Taiwan had raised concerns. Mao said China had noted the joint statement. China's position on the Taiwan question and related issues is consistent, clear, justified and aboveboard. The statement disregards objective facts and China's positive contribution to world peace, stability and development, crudely interferes in China's internal affairs and maliciously smears China; its wording is absurd, and it once again shows that the G7 is a small ideological clique clinging to Cold War thinking and bloc politics, and is in no position to represent the international community. Mao said China urges the G7 to mind its own affairs, fulfill its own responsibilities and play a more positive role in addressing today's pressing challenges and promoting international solidarity.

6. Over 5,000 metres deep, about 800,000 cubic metres a day: a major breakthrough in finding gas in volcanic rock

CNOOC announced on November 12 that it had drilled a high-yield volcanic oil and gas well in ultra-deep strata more than 5,000 metres below the Bohai Sea, marking a major breakthrough for China in ultra-deep offshore natural gas exploration. The well is located in the central Bohai Sea, adjacent to the Bozhong Sag, the largest hydrocarbon-rich sag in the area. It encountered more than 120 metres of cumulative gas-bearing layers in volcanic formations and was completed at a depth of 5,770 metres. Testing showed daily gas output of about 800,000 cubic metres (about 28 million cubic feet), demonstrating broad exploration prospects in ultra-deep offshore volcanic rocks and giving a strong boost to natural gas exploration in the Bozhong Sag.

7. Yin Yanlin: expanding domestic demand should be given greater priority next year

On November 12, Yin Yanlin, a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said at the 17th Caixin Summit that next year's economic work should grasp four points: first, give greater priority to expanding domestic demand; second, continue to promote the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market and stabilize it; third, properly handle the relationship between emerging industries and traditional industries; and fourth, pay more attention to changes in external markets. "Overall, I remain optimistic and positive about China's economic development next year," Yin said. The fundamentals of economic development have not changed, he added; through deepening reform, expanding opening up, improving expectations and optimizing resource allocation, China should turn potential advantages into real growth momentum and achieve an organic unity between short-term stabilization and long-term momentum building.

8. Fujian Province issues its Action Plan for Advancing "AI Plus" (2026-2028)

The General Office of the Fujian Provincial People's Government has issued the Action Plan for Advancing "AI Plus" in Fujian Province (2026-2028). The plan calls for focusing on key areas of the province's "555X" industrial clusters, implementing special initiatives for "AI Plus Manufacturing" and "AI Plus Software", advancing the intelligent upgrading of software products and promoting the development of industry-specific vertical models. It will deepen the integrated application of AI in manufacturing, support the building of smart factories and optimize production processes and intensive energy management. The province will cultivate 50 quality AI products and create more than 100 typical application scenarios. It will promote the use of "AI Plus" in energy fields such as power grid dispatching, wind power operation and maintenance and nuclear safety, forming a batch of high-value application scenarios and projects.

International News

1. Tanker struck by an unidentified projectile in the Persian Gulf, with multiple casualties

Local time November 12: according to the latest bulletin from the UK Maritime Trade Operations, a tanker sailing eastward in the Persian Gulf on the 10th was hit by an unidentified projectile, causing multiple casualties. The bulletin said the casualties had been taken ashore for medical treatment, the rest of the crew were safe and their numbers had been verified. The specific damage to the tanker and the environmental impact of the incident are not yet clear. UKMTO said the authorities are investigating the incident and advised passing vessels to remain vigilant, navigate with caution and report any suspicious activity.

2. Is oil no longer the key? The hardest part of US inflation may lie outside energy

War-driven oil price increases were once the core logic of market trading; now housing, services and consumer demand are back at the center of the inflation picture. Even if geopolitical risks ease, the US economy itself may still keep the Federal Reserve in a tightening stance.

3. Goolsbee: US inflation is at a dangerous moment and must be kept from worsening

According to Yahoo Finance, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said he had hoped US inflation would cool markedly as the effects of tariffs faded and oil prices fell, but that expectation has not been realized. October CPI exceeded expectations, rising for a second consecutive month; Goolsbee said the US is at a "dangerous moment" for inflation and should remain cautious to prevent further deterioration. He noted that persistent price pressures remain in services, health care and other components of CPI, and these pressures are unrelated to tariffs or oil prices. The US, he said, is gradually entering a phase in which central banks historically have struggled to contain inflation. Goolsbee said the Fed is currently trying to distinguish between two types of factors driving persistently high inflation: supply-side shocks such as tariffs and high oil prices lasting longer than expected, and demand-side overheating from large-scale data center construction. He pointed out that AI-related inflation has not yet spread to the wider economy and is currently concentrated in AI, technology and related sectors, but the Fed is watching closely for spillovers into other areas. If overheating demand from data center construction begins to affect the overall economy, that would become a problem. He also said that a proposal by newly elected Democratic governors to pause data center construction is not at present directly connected to the Fed's inflation work.

4. Russian diesel exports double after Trump lifts sanctions, but not a single barrel reaches the US

The Financial Times reported that the US decision to lift fuel sanctions on Moscow in order to push down diesel prices doubled Russia's diesel exports last month. Data from provider Kpler show Russian diesel exports reached 271,000 barrels per day in October, up from 135,000 bpd in September. However, none of the additional Russian diesel cargoes has yet arrived in the United States, while Russian diesel exports to Brazil, Turkey and elsewhere in the world have indeed increased. In recent weeks at least two tankers originally bound for the US changed course. Vessel-tracking data show one tanker fully laden with Russian diesel is still waiting off the US East Coast for a buyer. White House officials said talks with the owner of the tanker Agioi Fanendes are continuing.

5. Russia steps up attacks on Ukrainian agricultural facilities, posing a new threat to global food supply

Russia is intensifying attacks on Ukrainian crop-processing facilities, further hitting Ukraine's economy and an industry vital to global food supply. A soybean processing plant belonging to Ukrainian agribusiness Astarta was damaged in an attack on Sunday, and assets of other large agricultural companies have also been hit this month. A source familiar with Ukrainian military intelligence said Russia is currently preparing strikes on more grain elevators, dairy plants, sunflower oil mills and meat and poultry producers. These attacks mark a further escalation in Russia's campaign to strike at Ukraine's main export revenue sources and undermine stability in Kyiv, while also posing a threat to food security. In recent years Ukraine has worked to raise output of higher value-added agricultural products to offset the impact of the Russian invasion on crop export logistics. Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said he is coordinating with the defense ministry in responding to the attacks but cannot guarantee complete protection. He also noted that Ukrainian agricultural production is itself decentralized and diversified, so "there is no reason to expect severe food shortages in Ukraine".

6. Guterres: energy companies reaping huge profits from global conflict is morally indefensible

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the sharp rise in energy industry profits driven by global conflict is "morally indefensible" and that additional taxes should be levied on them to fund climate action. In a television interview on Thursday during the UN annual climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, Guterres said: "This is fundamentally problematic. These companies are making profits from activities that seriously damage the global environment and accelerate climate change." Guterres has discussed additional taxes on oil and gas companies with a number of governments, and told world leaders at the 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) on Wednesday that nine major energy producers together posted USD 95 billion in profits last quarter, several times the funding available for responding to climate disasters. "These taxes should be used to ease the plight of people affected by disasters," he said in the interview. Countries already have "the mechanisms to tax windfall profits; it is a matter of political decision, not technical feasibility", he noted.

7. Fed's Daly: further rate hikes may be necessary to curb inflation

Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said on Thursday that further monetary tightening may be necessary to bring inflation down, because price pressures persist and are not confined to sectors directly affected by tariffs or oil prices. She said a growing number of companies have told her they plan to pass higher input costs on to consumers, and their willingness to raise prices is increasing. Daly said she supported the Fed's rate hike in September and its decision to hold rates steady in October. On AI, she said AI infrastructure construction is undoubtedly pushing up some prices, but its impact on overall inflation remains modest, cost increases are limited and have not yet spread to other areas. She believes current headline inflation is driven mainly by other factors rather than AI-related goods. She remains positive about the long-term prospect of AI accelerating productivity growth, but said it is too early to judge when that will be realized. Daly is not a voting member of the FOMC this year.

8. After the war premium fades, crude faces a real test of supply and demand | Crude Oil Headlines

Recovering Middle East supply and US inventory builds are capping prices, but navigation through Hormuz, disruptions at Russian refineries and the nearing end of CTA position unwinding still leave room for a rebound

International Shipping News

Baltic Freight Indices

Container Shipping - Europe Route

Rate-Increase Sentiment Fades, Reality Still Needs to Catch Up

The main Europe route container shipping contract moved in a narrow range, with sentiment on the board weakening after carriers' rate-increase announcements landed. On Tuesday MSC issued a rate-increase letter for the first half of December, targeting USD 4,600 per FEU, up USD 100 from the previous level. This is another round of "paper price defense" in the current cycle, and the board's movement after the letter gave a clear pricing signal: the market is no longer paying an overly optimistic extra premium for rate-increase letters. In reality, Maersk has opened flat at USD 3,000 for several consecutive weeks, which essentially means the November increase round has failed, though there is still some expectation support for prices stabilizing and recovering in December. The "stabilization" on the spot side is a load-factor floor that carriers have bought by repeatedly abandoning rate increases, rather than any upward pull from demand. The board has currently found a temporary equilibrium near the valuation anchor implied by the latest week's FAK rates, and the pricing of nearby contracts has essentially completed its switch from "rate-increase letter promises" to "actual concluded levels". The November contract has moved within a narrow range, and with some expectation of December increases still in place, once the bearish news of disproven earlier rate hikes and spot anchoring have both settled at reasonable thresholds, the board has some room to revise upward - though the extent will need to be matched by the real strength of spot rate increases. The near-term pricing driver on the board remains carriers' quotations and the question of December rate increases; going forward, given that carriers usually begin signing long-term contracts in December and that cargo volumes generally improve marginally in late November, December increases are usually partly realized, so the market still has expectation support for rate increases in far months. Overall, the market trades around carriers' actual quotations, and with the main contract currently in a valuation range where bearish news has been priced in, optimistic sentiment may still provide support until December rate-increase expectations are disproved, but one must guard against a downward valuation correction if actual opening rates come in below expectations.

International Shipping Developments

1. US container imports hit a record high

A Descartes report shows that US container imports reached 2.6748 million TEU in October 2026, up 5% month on month and 16% year on year, exceeding the previous record. Imports from China reached 987,800 TEU, up 22.9% year on year, marking a fourth consecutive month of growth and a new high since 2025.

2. Panama Canal transit capacity raised again

As lake levels recover, the Panama Canal has raised daily transits from 33 to 34 vessels effective November 12. It had previously added one booking slot for Super-class vessels and restored the 15.24-metre maximum draft on November 9, gradually improving transit assurance capacity.

3. Evergreen launches new Southeast Asia NCX service

Evergreen Marine has officially launched its new NCX Singapore-Malaysia service, departing from Qingdao and reaching Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia. Transit from Qingdao to Singapore takes just 9 days and to Westports, Port Klang, 12 days. It can be combined with the existing NCS and CEM services to suit different shipping schedules.