Daily Urea Review: Tight Spot Supply Boosts Market Trading Atmosphere

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to Feidoodoo data, on April 25, the urea small particle price index was 2241.50, up 11.82 from the previous day, an increase of 0.53% from the day before, and a decrease of 8.97% year-over-year.

Urea Futures Market:
Today's urea UR409 contract opened at 2074, reached a high of 2098, a low of 2059, settled at 2079, and closed at 2082, which is an increase of 32 from the previous day's settlement, up 1.56%, with the day's range between 2059 to 2098; the Shandong area basis for the September contract was 148; the September contract saw a reduction of 832 positions today, bringing total holdings to 246,370.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, domestic urea market prices rebounded, increasing low-price transactions led to reduced corporate inventories, and with tight spot supply, today's factory quotations were mostly raised.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region remained stable at 2160-2230 yuan/ton. Prices in the East China region rose to 2220-2260 yuan/ton. Prices for small particles in Central China rose to 2200-2350 yuan/ton, and large particles rose to 2200-2230 yuan/ton. North China prices increased to 2100-2230 yuan/ton. South China prices rose to 2320-2370 yuan/ton. Northwest prices remained stable at 2100-2170 yuan/ton. Southwest prices were stable at 2180-2550 yuan/ton.

Factory Perspective:
This week, aftermarket prices eased and adjusted downward, individual factories saw an increase in new order transactions, easing the pressure of collecting orders before the Labor Day holiday, currently maintaining a good sentiment, primarily defending prices. With current corporate inventories low, some manufacturers showed reluctance to sell, leading to generally higher quotes today. In the market, improved order collections in the main producing and selling areas have enhanced the trading atmosphere, reduced low-priced supplies, and kept inventories low, with some factories raising their quotes and others stopping collections altogether, which boosted the market atmosphere. On the supply side, with maintenance on production facilities gradually resuming and daily production increasing, but corporate inventories slightly reduced and more maintenance planned, the supply side is somewhat favorable. On the demand side, there is a definite need for stocking the downstream, and with the improved market trading atmosphere, downstream compound fertilizer factories and traders are following up in a timely and appropriate manner.

Overall View:
Currently, the urea market is trending upwards again, driven by low inventories and maintenance plans, and prices are expected to continue to adjust upwards as inventories change in the short term.