Did China's compound fertilizer price rise or fall in December?
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
肥料农药信息台
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Guide
Highlights at a glance
In November, the domestic compound fertilizer market declined by 30–100 yuan/ton due to falling raw material prices—urea, monoammonium phosphate, synthetic ammonia, and sulfuric acid—reducing cost support and dampening market sentiment. Winter storage progress was slow, with cautious buyer behavior. By month-end, 45% S compound fertilizer was priced at 3050–3200 yuan/ton, while 45% CL was at 2800–3050 yuan/ton. Urea prices dropped sharply by around 550 yuan/ton in Shandong, amid weak demand and coal-related factors. Monoammonium phosphate fell 250–300 yuan/ton due to poor downstream procurement and lower synthetic ammonia costs. Diammonium phosphate weakened with limited export support, down 100 yuan/ton to 3450–3500 yuan/ton. Potash remained strong, with port 62% white potassium up 150 yuan/ton to 4000–4100 yuan/ton. The average operating rate for compound fertilizer plants rose slightly to 32.13%, but remained below last year’s level due to low production enthusiasm, distributor hesi
In November, the domestic compound fertilizer market adjusted downwards, ranging from 30-100 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the prices of raw materials such as urea, monoammonium phosphate, synthetic ammonia, and sulfuric acid have fallen, weakening the support for the cost and mentality of compound fertilizers; on the other hand, although companies have guaranteed interest in advance, they have partial buyouts or a single discussion, which promotes the market to lower the center of gravity. The sentiment of all parties in the third market showed wait-and-see, and the advancement of winter storage was slow. As of the end of November, refer to the mainland 45% S (14:16:15/3*15) mainstream factory at 3050-3200 yuan/ton, and 45% CL (3*15) at 2800-3050 yuan/ton.
Analysis of influencing factors of domestic compound fertilizer
Raw materials: In November, the market for the main upstream raw material products of compound fertilizers went up and down. Among them, urea lags behind first, and the center of gravity drops, and the cumulative fluctuation range is about 500 yuan/ton. Mainly affected by a series of factors such as start of construction, demand and coal, as of November 30, the receiving price in Linyi, Shandong was around 2500 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and 140 yuan/ton higher than the monthly low .
Ammonium phosphate: The market fluctuated downward. Among them, monoammonium phosphate was dragged down by factors such as sluggish downstream procurement, continued poor transactions, and the decline in synthetic ammonia. The price continued to fall. As of the end of the month, 55 powders in Central China had shipped around 3000-3050 yuan/ton; 58 powders were 3150-3200 yuan/ton, higher At the end of the month, it fell 250-300 yuan/ton. Diammonium phosphate is operating weakly. Due to limited export orders and insufficient support, many market traders have no intention to stock up in advance. As of the end of the month, the mainstream ex-factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate in Hubei is 3450-3500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the end of last month. Around tons.
Potash fertilizer: This month showed a strong trend at a high level. Among them, most of the potassium chloride was auctioned and sold by the State Reserve, and the operating rate of potassium sulfate manufacturers continued to decline. At the end of the month, the price of 62% white potassium at ports was mostly 4000-4100 yuan/ton, up by about 150 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month; the market sales price of 52% potassium potassium was mostly 4000-4100 yuan/ton, and the agricultural sales price in some regions was higher high.
Market mentality: wait-and-see performance, low operational enthusiasm.
Demand: The winter fertilizer reserve is in progress.
Operating rate: According to statistics from Longzhong Information, the average monthly operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer installations in November was 32.13%, an increase of 1.75% from the previous month's average operating rate, and a decrease of 9.46% from the same period last year. The reasons for the continued low operating rate this month: First, the continuous decline of raw materials, especially urea and monoammonium, has suppressed the enthusiasm of enterprises for production; second, distributors are not very motivated to stock up and pick up the winter fertilizer, which increases the risk of enterprise finished product inventory, which in turn affects enterprise equipment Start of construction; third, power and gas restrictions in some areas continue to affect the release of equipment production capacity.
As usual, November is the peak season for fertilizer production in winter for compound fertilizer manufacturers, but the overall operating load of the company’s installations is relatively low this year. Among them, small and medium-sized enterprises often operate at low loads, and some are still in a state of parking; although many medium- and large-scale enterprises have started construction, the relative load increase is limited. From a regional perspective, the Jiangsu and Anhui regions were affected by power restrictions, and some installations were shut down in the middle and late ten days; in Hebei and Shanxi regions, with the restart of some early parking installations, the operating rate rebounded slightly; in Hubei, the adjustment of the operating rate of enterprises was limited and was affected by the continuous decline. Due to poor cargo, most of the major companies continue to control production; in the Northeast, most companies have delayed production; in Shandong and Henan, with the restart of some small and medium-sized enterprises, the operating rate increased slightly.
In December, it is predicted that the operating rate of enterprises will continue to rise, and the speed of recovery is directly proportional to the fluctuation of the raw material market and the situation of the market. Judging from the current situation, the devices that were shut down in the early stage will resume production one after another. For major compound fertilizer companies, it is predicted that the operating rate of the devices will gradually enter a medium-to-high operating load state.
Forecast of the domestic compound fertilizer market in December
In December, the domestic compound fertilizer market may weaken first and then stabilize, and delivery is expected to improve in the middle and late ten-day period. On the one hand, the price fluctuations of main upstream raw materials are expected to be narrowed, which will support the gradual stabilization of the market; on the other hand, some companies may introduce a new round of pre-collection policy prices, and the inter-regional price difference is expected to narrow; third, for some early-stage stocks Distributors may increase their enthusiasm for stocking and delivery.
About mid-to-early, companies adjusted more policies and prices. For high-end prices, dragged down by factors such as costs and continued poor transactions, prices are at risk of falling, especially for chlorine-based compound fertilizers. Some adjustments may be slightly larger; dealers wait and see , Wait more for the further clarification of the market. In the middle and late ten days, the market is expected to stabilize and the atmosphere gradually improves. In terms of installations, as the fluctuation of raw materials narrows, and with the increase in midstream and downstream entry into the market, the operating rate of enterprise installations will continue to rise, especially for the installations that have been shut down in the early stage, and the restart in December will be more obvious.
Analysis of influencing factors of domestic compound fertilizer
Raw materials: In November, the market for the main upstream raw material products of compound fertilizers went up and down. Among them, urea lags behind first, and the center of gravity drops, and the cumulative fluctuation range is about 500 yuan/ton. Mainly affected by a series of factors such as start of construction, demand and coal, as of November 30, the receiving price in Linyi, Shandong was around 2500 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and 140 yuan/ton higher than the monthly low .
Ammonium phosphate: The market fluctuated downward. Among them, monoammonium phosphate was dragged down by factors such as sluggish downstream procurement, continued poor transactions, and the decline in synthetic ammonia. The price continued to fall. As of the end of the month, 55 powders in Central China had shipped around 3000-3050 yuan/ton; 58 powders were 3150-3200 yuan/ton, higher At the end of the month, it fell 250-300 yuan/ton. Diammonium phosphate is operating weakly. Due to limited export orders and insufficient support, many market traders have no intention to stock up in advance. As of the end of the month, the mainstream ex-factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate in Hubei is 3450-3500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the end of last month. Around tons.
Potash fertilizer: This month showed a strong trend at a high level. Among them, most of the potassium chloride was auctioned and sold by the State Reserve, and the operating rate of potassium sulfate manufacturers continued to decline. At the end of the month, the price of 62% white potassium at ports was mostly 4000-4100 yuan/ton, up by about 150 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month; the market sales price of 52% potassium potassium was mostly 4000-4100 yuan/ton, and the agricultural sales price in some regions was higher high.
Market mentality: wait-and-see performance, low operational enthusiasm.
Demand: The winter fertilizer reserve is in progress.
Operating rate: According to statistics from Longzhong Information, the average monthly operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer installations in November was 32.13%, an increase of 1.75% from the previous month's average operating rate, and a decrease of 9.46% from the same period last year. The reasons for the continued low operating rate this month: First, the continuous decline of raw materials, especially urea and monoammonium, has suppressed the enthusiasm of enterprises for production; second, distributors are not very motivated to stock up and pick up the winter fertilizer, which increases the risk of enterprise finished product inventory, which in turn affects enterprise equipment Start of construction; third, power and gas restrictions in some areas continue to affect the release of equipment production capacity.
As usual, November is the peak season for fertilizer production in winter for compound fertilizer manufacturers, but the overall operating load of the company’s installations is relatively low this year. Among them, small and medium-sized enterprises often operate at low loads, and some are still in a state of parking; although many medium- and large-scale enterprises have started construction, the relative load increase is limited. From a regional perspective, the Jiangsu and Anhui regions were affected by power restrictions, and some installations were shut down in the middle and late ten days; in Hebei and Shanxi regions, with the restart of some early parking installations, the operating rate rebounded slightly; in Hubei, the adjustment of the operating rate of enterprises was limited and was affected by the continuous decline. Due to poor cargo, most of the major companies continue to control production; in the Northeast, most companies have delayed production; in Shandong and Henan, with the restart of some small and medium-sized enterprises, the operating rate increased slightly.
In December, it is predicted that the operating rate of enterprises will continue to rise, and the speed of recovery is directly proportional to the fluctuation of the raw material market and the situation of the market. Judging from the current situation, the devices that were shut down in the early stage will resume production one after another. For major compound fertilizer companies, it is predicted that the operating rate of the devices will gradually enter a medium-to-high operating load state.
Forecast of the domestic compound fertilizer market in December
In December, the domestic compound fertilizer market may weaken first and then stabilize, and delivery is expected to improve in the middle and late ten-day period. On the one hand, the price fluctuations of main upstream raw materials are expected to be narrowed, which will support the gradual stabilization of the market; on the other hand, some companies may introduce a new round of pre-collection policy prices, and the inter-regional price difference is expected to narrow; third, for some early-stage stocks Distributors may increase their enthusiasm for stocking and delivery.
About mid-to-early, companies adjusted more policies and prices. For high-end prices, dragged down by factors such as costs and continued poor transactions, prices are at risk of falling, especially for chlorine-based compound fertilizers. Some adjustments may be slightly larger; dealers wait and see , Wait more for the further clarification of the market. In the middle and late ten days, the market is expected to stabilize and the atmosphere gradually improves. In terms of installations, as the fluctuation of raw materials narrows, and with the increase in midstream and downstream entry into the market, the operating rate of enterprise installations will continue to rise, especially for the installations that have been shut down in the early stage, and the restart in December will be more obvious.
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June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM
