Urea rises by 100 per day, how long can a strong rebound be?

1. Supply side to now, the domestic daily output is about 150,500 tons. At the end of November and early December, the southwest, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and other places may usher in centralized maintenance of the gas head device, and the daily production will gradually drop to about 127,000 to 130,000 tons. With the improvement in transactions, the reluctance of some companies to sell has increased. Although corporate inventories have fallen, they are still around 1 million tons. Under the situation of restricted exports, the supply side is still loose.2. Demand side Agricultural fertilizer preparations have increased, but whether it can continue to follow up remains to be seen. Compound fertilizers are mainly prepared for small orders, and some large trades have begun to buy into the market. With the passage of off-site storage time, the time for the storage companies to prepare fertilizer continues to shorten, and off-site storage companies will choose opportunities to enter the market. In addition, a small amount of supply has continued to gather in ports recently, but its impact on the market is limited. Domestic supply is still digested by domestic trade.3. Cost sideIn the past two days, national policies have once again suppressed coal, and coal prices still have room for a fall. But entering December, the price of natural gas in Southwest China will be raised from the current 2.08 yuan/cubic meter to 3.3 yuan/cubic meter, and it is also heard that electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and other places have also risen. In the later stage, the cost of the gas head will see a substantial increase, and the cost of the coal head still has room to drop.4. FuturesPart of the market is still greatly affected by the futures market. Affected by the policy, the main force of thermal coal futures has once again fallen to the limit today, and the market mentality is still unstable.5. International marketThe international market may continue to rise steadily, and the supply situation is still severe. India's new round of urea bidding will probably be released in December. Before the completion of spring plowing and supply next year, it is almost impossible for China to liberalize urea exports in large quantities. In the recent stage, affected by the increase in the cost of gas and the expected reduction in the supply side, some large trade companies such as Southwest and Jiangsu have begun to buy in the market, and their mentality continues to affect the trading atmosphere. Probably the short-term market will continue to push up inertially. In recent days, the market has continued to rise at a high rate. If the current rising rhythm is maintained, there is a high probability that downstream demand will be suppressed again. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation, the stopping time of the gas head device, and the coal price trend.