Domestic Potash Fertilizer Is Warming Rapidly, And Will Still Be Consolidating At A High Level In The Short Term.

The domestic potash fertilizer market is warming rapidly, and the price keeps rising, which makes people unprepared.

Since then, the price recovery has originated from the demand for large granular potassium chloride after the start of the northeast market. Under the two preconditions that the supply of large granular potassium chloride in the northeast port is slightly tight, and the border trade orders in November have never been signed, most traders in the northeast began to approach the southern market, intending to inquire for goods from nearby ports in large quantities, thus driving the overall start of the market.

In the case of concentrated supply of potassium chloride market, although the stock of ports has reached the level of 2.7 million tons, which is basically the same as the stock of ports in the same period last year, most small and medium-sized traders have sold out their supply in the early stage when prices continue to fall. Therefore, when the market is picking up, both downstream compound fertilizer factories and intermediate traders have the demand to inquire about goods.

From the point of view of the price of large particles, the price rises fastest and with the largest range, which is close to 500 yuan/ton compared with the lowest point in the previous period. For other varieties, such as imported 62% white potassium, the price increase is about 400 yuan/ton. The final settlement price of domestic salt lakes has also been introduced. The guaranteed settlement price in November and before is 3450 yuan/ton, while the price of the benchmark product 60% crystal in December is 3500 yuan/ton.

According to the statistics of Longzhong Information, in November 2022, the sample output of potash fertilizer in China was 1,142,900 tons, an increase of 19.4% compared with the same month of last year, in which the output of potassium chloride was 859,000 tons, an increase of 53.17%, and the output of potassium sulfate was 283,900 tons, a decrease of 28.38%. From January to November, 2022, the total output of potash fertilizer samples in China was 9,801,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.36%.

In fact, as far as the domestic potash market is concerned, the output of domestic potassium chloride is increasing slowly, and it is higher than that of the same period last year. However, in the potassium sulfate market, the output drops significantly when the cost sales are seriously upside down.

The recovery of potash fertilizer market has also driven some of the market prices of potassium sulfate, mainly because only 20% of the processing potassium sulfate manufacturers in Mannheim have started construction, and no matter from the current price of raw materials or the price of the corresponding supporting chemical products, there is no condition for Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers to resume production in large quantities.

On the whole, the recovery of potash fertilizer market price is expected, but in the case of relatively limited potassium consumption, downstream compound fertilizer factories are not eager to build positions and reserves, and this upward trend is still driven by small and medium-sized traders to make up positions. Therefore, in the short term, the potash fertilizer market price will remain in a state of high consolidation, and whether it can continue upward or not, we still need to pay attention to the final demand of factories.