July 28 Pesticide Daily Review: Terminal Market Holds Stable, Costs Still Provide Support

The pesticide market as a whole remained weak in sentiment. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by rigid demand, market momentum was insufficient, and the cost-support logic eased somewhat as geopolitical tensions cooled. Some products still received support from rising costs, but due to transmission issues along the industrial chain, high prices continued to trigger negative feedback from downstream buyers. The market is temporarily waiting to see whether terminal demand can provide stronger support. In the international market, Middle East geopolitical tensions remain volatile, and the U.S. and Iran are still following a rhythm of fighting while negotiating. However, shipping costs and damage to supply in the petrochemical chain remain largely irreversible in the short term, so bottom support may still exist. Overall, cautious sentiment remains dominant. Price increases in some upstream products continue to face transmission resistance downstream, upward momentum has paused, and a wait-and-see atmosphere persists. Follow-up attention should focus on geopolitical shifts, export demand, and seasonal demand.

Market Analysis

Herbicides: The herbicide market is currently operating weakly overall, with limited demand follow-up. Although cost increases caused by geopolitical risks still exist, insufficient demand acceptance has failed to provide a driver. In the U.S., the invocation of the Defense Production Act to classify elemental phosphorus and glyphosate herbicides as defense-critical materials and prioritize domestic supply continues to support the domestic market. In addition, Bayer has withdrawn its application for anti-dumping and countervailing investigations into Chinese glyphosate, easing sentiment pressure somewhat, but actual demand still requires further observation. Overall, downstream buyers remain focused on rigid-demand purchases. In the short term, weak demand support continues to drag market sentiment lower. Follow-up attention should be paid to whether export issues improve and whether geopolitical sentiment changes.

Yellow Phosphorus: Today, the yellow phosphorus market continued to recover overall. After earlier prices continued to fall and moved close to cost levels, upstream producers showed increasingly clear reluctance to sell at low prices, creating a degree of price-support sentiment in the market. As downside room narrowed after the price decline, downstream purchasing enthusiasm also improved somewhat. In addition, upstream enterprises generally have relatively limited inventories, and staggered production in Guizhou has provided bullish supply-side support for prices to continue moving higher. Downstream buyers are mainly replenishing for rigid demand while accepting current prices. In the short term, the yellow phosphorus market is rising moderately. Downstream acceptance is still acceptable, but attention should still be paid to whether demand support can continue and how that affects expectations for price recovery room.

Pesticide Price Overview

Herbicides:

96% Pendimethalin, down RMB 1,000 to RMB 41,500/tonne.

Insecticides:

97% Clothianidin, down RMB 1,000 to RMB 65,000/tonne; 95% Fipronil, down RMB 20,000 to RMB 330,000/tonne; 94% Profenofos, down RMB 2,000 to RMB 48,000/tonne; 95% (9:1) Indoxacarb, down RMB 20,000 to RMB 410,000/tonne.

Fungicides:

95% Tricyclazole, down RMB 2,000 to RMB 64,000/tonne; 98% Azoxystrobin, down RMB 2,000 to RMB 128,000/tonne; 98% Dimethomorph, down RMB 1,000 to RMB 60,000/tonne; 97% Trifloxystrobin, down RMB 5,000 to RMB 170,000/tonne.