Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 28: High Cost Pressure, Weak Demand

MAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 28, China’s domestic 55% powder MAP index was 4,423.75, down 0.14% from the previous working day; the 55% granular MAP index was 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder MAP index was 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, China’s domestic MAP market maintained weak operation.Enterprise side，Most plants are still executing previous orders. Today, prices for 55% content declined slightly, and actual transactions remained under negotiation.Market side，Current market sentiment is characterized by sellers holding firm but under pressure, buyers remaining cautious and wait-and-see, and traders reluctant to sell while waiting for prices to rise.Demand side，Some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are only maintaining small-volume procurement for rigid demand. Purchasing enthusiasm is weak, new order follow-up is insufficient, the market center has moved slightly lower within a narrow range, and sentiment remains cautious.Raw material side，The Middle East geopolitical situation remains tense, and shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz continue to exist, although expectations for a further escalation of the conflict in the short term have cooled somewhat. Domestic sulfur prices remained high in consolidation today, with divergent trends. Recently, imported sulfur arrivals and inventories have risen slightly, but overall inventories remain relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated weakly, while phosphate rock prices remained high and stable, keeping cost-side pressure strong.Overall，Supported by high costs, the MAP market is expected to continue weak consolidation in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn stocking, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

DAP Price Index:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 28, China’s domestic mainstream 64% granular DAP index was 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown DAP index was 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% DAP index was 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, China’s domestic DAP market continued to operate in consolidation.Enterprise side，Some producers are mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders. Market prices have not changed significantly. Raw material prices continue to rise, providing a solid foundation for market prices, while actual transactions remain under negotiation.Market side，Market wait-and-see sentiment remains strong.Demand side，Downstream procurement remains sluggish. Downstream compound fertilizer plants mostly maintain low operating rates, purchasing willingness is generally weak, and downstream buyers only make scattered inquiries. Actual order follow-up is relatively limited, overall trading activity is low, and transactions are unable to form effective volume.Raw material side，The Middle East geopolitical situation remains tense, and shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz continue to exist, although expectations for a further escalation of the conflict in the short term have cooled somewhat. Domestic sulfur prices remained high in consolidation today, with divergent trends. Recently, imported sulfur arrivals and inventories have risen slightly, but overall inventories remain relatively low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated weakly. Phosphate rock prices remained high and stable. Raw material costs remain elevated, cost pressure continues to intensify, and this provides strong support to the market.Overall，The DAP market is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term. Follow-up attention should focus on raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices:

According to FDD data calculations, on July 28, domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,180.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur was priced at 9,160.00, flat from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,130.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur was priced at 9,110.00, flat from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur was priced at 9,300.00, flat from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur was priced at 8,890.00, down 0.84% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today, China’s domestic sulfur spot market generally remained in sideways consolidation, with a quiet trading atmosphere. In the imported port market, morning offers remained stable, while market participants held strong wait-and-see sentiment. Buyers continued to test for low-priced cargoes, while cargo holders held firm to their target prices. Only a small number of scattered transactions were concluded. In the afternoon, market sentiment failed to improve, and scattered low-priced small-lot negotiations did not provide clear guidance.

For domestic solid sulfur, market sentiment continued to be affected by changes in Middle East geopolitical conditions and the decline in international crude oil prices. In addition, recent port inventories have risen slightly, downstream procurement sentiment has become more cautious, purchasing of Northwest domestic resources has slowed, regional auction enthusiasm has continued to weaken, and the transaction center has come under pressure. The market will continue to monitor follow-up transactions for liquid sulfur and port cargoes.

In terms of sentiment, uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical situation still remains and continues to affect global sulfur supply expectations. However, the bullish premium brought by short-term conflict has gradually been digested as oil prices fell, making it difficult to continue driving spot prices higher.

The demand side has formed a clear constraint. Downstream enterprises are under cost pressure and mostly maintain need-based procurement for rigid demand. Willingness to stock actively is weak, making it difficult to support a sustained price increase. Amid the supply-demand tug of war, the market lacks a clear directional driver, and bullish-bearish divergence is becoming evident.

Outlook: In the short term, the sulfur market is likely to maintain narrow-range consolidation. On one hand, rising port inventories and insufficient downstream demand follow-up are suppressing upside room. On the other hand, potential Middle East shipping risks have not been fully cleared, external disruptions remain, and momentum for a deep price decline is limited. Follow-up attention should focus on the stability of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the pace of Middle Eastern cargo outflows, changes in port inventories, and downstream phosphate fertilizer operating rates and raw material procurement trends. If concentrated transaction volume continues to be lacking, the market center may loosen and adjust.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates:

July 28: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,500-4,530/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 28: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 28: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,430-4,500/tonne, with quotations lowered.

July 28: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,350-4,450/tonne, with quotations lowered.

July 28: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 28: In the Shandong MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations lowered.

July 28: In the Sichuan MAP market, 55% powder delivery prices were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 28: In the Yunnan MAP market, 55% powder ex-factory prices were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 28: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 28: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 28: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup prices were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 28: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory prices were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 28: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse prices were RMB 4,900-5,000/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% DAP self-pickup station prices were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.