Los precios de los fertilizantes compuestos siguen subiendo, o seguirán utilizando fertilizantes en otoño

June 12, 2024, 9:21 AM

China Agricultural Media

3078

Guide

Highlights at a glance

Fertilizer prices in China remain at historically high levels amid strong summer demand and rising raw material costs. As of mid-May, 45%CL compound fertilizer is priced at 3,500–3,700 yuan/ton, while 45%S reaches 3,700–3,900 yuan/ton. Urea, phosphate, and potash markets are all under supply pressure, with urea near 3,500 yuan/ton locally and potash at 4,900–4,950 yuan/ton for 62% white potassium. Monoammonium phosphate supply is tight, with prices up 100–200 yuan/ton expected short-term. Diammonium exports remain strong at $1,030–1,040/ton FOB. Many compound fertilizer producers have halted orders due to high costs and uncertain autumn market conditions. With raw materials like sulfur and phosphate rock also constrained, manufacturers are postponing pricing decisions. Dealers are advised to replenish based on actual demand, as market strength persists despite logistical and policy uncertainties during the pandemic.

In mid-May, the demand for fertilizer replenishment in summer has been released one after another. Compared with the same period last year, the prices of various fertilizers are currently at historically high levels. In the face of rising prices of bulk raw materials, the market for compound fertilizers has also risen. Up to now, the market quotation of compound fertilizer, 45%CL (15-15-15) reference price is 3500-3700 yuan/ton, 45%S (15-15-15) reference price is 3700-3900 yuan/ton, 40 content corn fertilizer 3300- 3700 yuan / ton.

It is reported that many compound fertilizer manufacturers have raised their ex-factory quotations this month, and even some manufacturers have stopped quoting and accepting orders. In view of the tight supply of raw materials, it is expected that the price of compound fertilizer will continue to be firm in the future, or will continue to the autumn fertilizer market.

raw material market

Urea: At present, the domestic mainstream urea ex-factory price has risen to about 3190-3300 yuan/ton, and the local market price is nearly 3500 yuan/ton. After the price increase in the domestic urea market, driven by fear of heights, the local transaction atmosphere weakened. However, the current upstream mainstream urea factories have low inventory and large orders to be issued, which still forms a positive support for the price. The urea price may remain high in the near future. run.

Phosphate fertilizer:

The price of monoammonium phosphate rose again this week, the market supply was tight, and the market waited and watched. Specifically, the current mainstream quotation of 55% powdered monoammonium in Hubei is 4300-4400 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotation of some enterprises can reach 4500 yuan / ton. At present, it seems that most of the current monoammonium manufacturers have suspended quotations and orders, downstream traders and factories are cautious in purchasing, the market trading atmosphere has decreased, and some enterprises have also been affected by raw materials, resulting in declining production and tight supply. It is expected that the market price of monoammonium will rise in the short term, with a range of 100-200 yuan / ton, and the market will fluctuate.

The domestic diammonium phosphate market is running at a high level, and the cost continues to put pressure on it. Many companies do not quote and receive orders for the time being. The domestic demand is weak, and the company focuses on exports. According to relevant monitoring data, the average price of diammonium phosphate in mid-May is 3900 yuan. Yuan / ton, the market continues to rise, the export FOB price is around 1030-1040 US dollars / ton FOB.

Potash fertilizer: Domestic potash fertilizer prices have remained at a relatively high level, and border trade goods have been passing through the border one after another, and when the Northeast market has ended, most of the goods have been sent to the mainland market. The port price of 62% white potassium is 4900-4950 yuan / ton. discussion. The operating rate of potassium sulfate manufacturers continues to be low, and the price of potassium sulfate maintains a strong trend. The cost pressure of processing potassium sulfate manufacturers still exists. The operating rate is only about 40%, but the supply is acceptable. At present, the ex-factory price of Mannheim 52% powder is mostly 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer still intends to continue to push up the price.

In the case of rising raw material prices, some compound fertilizer companies stopped taking orders and waited and saw, and the preferential policies were narrowed or cancelled, and the overall market remained high. It is reported that the mainstream ex-factory quotation of 40% chlorine-based summer corn fertilizer has risen to 3200~3300 yuan / ton, which is higher than the same period of previous years. The person in charge of a large domestic compound fertilizer manufacturer said that the price of compound fertilizer this month has risen by 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous month, and has risen by 250 yuan/ton compared with the spring ploughing period. And as far as the current situation of raw materials rising, the autumn fertilizer market is still strong.

The new round of prices is also not clear, and the high probability is still mainly to rise. Due to the excessive growth of monoammonium, the tight supply of raw materials of sulfur and phosphate rock, and the uncertainty of the supply of potash fertilizer to Hong Kong, compound fertilizer manufacturers have suspended advance receipts, and mainly wait and see, and price the raw materials again in the future. Industry insiders said that monoammonium is currently in high demand. After the spring ploughing, the company purchased some monoammonium, which was barely enough for summer fertilizer. The autumn fertilizer market is still unclear, and now the raw materials are in a priceless state.

To sum up, raw material prices continue to fluctuate and rise, and compound fertilizer companies generally have a strong intention to raise prices, which directly leads to the reduction of low-priced supply in the market. In terms of dealers, more fertilizers should be replenished on demand in summer, and the current bullish atmosphere in the market remains unabated. The market outlook should pay more attention to logistics and transportation and relevant national policies during the epidemic.

The price of raw materials generally rose obviously, but potash fertilizer followed slowly.

Synthetic ammonia: the good has not been realized, the local weakening