October 13 Phosphate Daily Review: Weak Downstream Demand, Phosphate Prices Run Weak

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 12, the domestic MAP 55% powder index was 3772.50, flat versus the previous working day; the 55% granular index was 4050.00, flat versus the previous working day; and the 58% powder index was 4350.00, flat versus the previous working day.

MAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic MAP market continued to run weak. On the enterprise side, most plants are still executing earlier orders and continue to apply floor-price policies; prices from plants and traders are fairly chaotic, and actual transactions are negotiated. On the market side, supply is ample and the trading atmosphere is sluggish and quiet. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually drawing to a close, market inventory is ample, some downstream compound fertilizer enterprises still purchase mainly on rigid demand, new-order transactions are limited, market sentiment is fairly cautious, and demand remains fairly weak. On the raw material side, today domestic sulfur prices continued to weaken and consolidate; sulfur port inventory remains at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices rebounded and rose; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; raw material prices on the cost side rebounded somewhat, strengthening support for enterprises. Overall, the MAP market currently maintains a pattern of marginally weakening cost support amid feeble demand recovery, and is expected to remain weak in the short term. Going forward, focus on raw material price trends, the pace of downstream autumn fertilizer demand, and the transmission of geopolitical developments to the cost side.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

MAP Market Price (yuan/t)

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 13, the domestic mainstream DAP 64% granular index was 4591.67, flat versus the previous working day; the 60% brown index was 4150.00, down 2.35% from the previous working day; and the 57% content index was 4012.50, down 0.93% from the previous working day.

DAP Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today the domestic DAP market continued its weak downward trend. On the enterprise side, some enterprises are mainly focused on shipping previously pending orders, market prices are fairly chaotic, and actual transactions remain negotiated. On the market side, bearish sentiment continues to spread. On the demand side, autumn fertilizer is gradually entering its closing stage, low prices appear frequently, the trading atmosphere is sluggish and quiet, downstream procurement is mostly concentrated on small rigid-demand orders, some traders are under pressure, and market prices are moving weakly lower. On the raw material side, today domestic sulfur prices ran weak; sulfur port inventory remains at a relatively low level overall; sulfuric acid prices rebounded and rose; the phosphate rock market was mainly stable; raw material prices on the cost side rebounded somewhat, strengthening support for enterprises. Overall, the DAP market is expected to continue its weak posture in the short term; going forward, focus on changes in raw material prices, downstream demand follow-through, and later adjustments to export policy.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

DAP Market Price (yuan/t)

Sulfur Market Price:

According to FDD data estimates: on October 13, the domestic sulfur granular price at Zhenjiang Port was 7050 yuan/t, down 25 yuan/t from the previous working day; the granular price at Dafeng Port was 7030 yuan/t, down 25 yuan/t from the previous working day; the lump/powder price at Zhenjiang Port was 7000 yuan/t, down 25 yuan/t from the previous working day; the lump/powder price at Dafeng Port was 6980 yuan/t, down 25 yuan/t from the previous working day; the East China solid price was 7200 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day; and the East China liquid price was 7145 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast:

Today trading in the domestic sulfur spot market remained cautious, and the overall market maintained a volatile, mildly weak pattern. On the supply side, domestic refinery output is stable and port arrivals are steady; internationally, overseas offers have loosened, the boosting effect from the geopolitical side is gradually fading, and import cost support has pulled back somewhat. On the demand side, the downstream phosphate and compound fertilizer industry is in a demand gap as autumn fertilizer wraps up and winter storage has not yet started; phosphate fertilizer enterprises maintain low operating rates and purchase only small rigid-demand orders, and the chemical downstream likewise buys as needed, with stocking enthusiasm insufficient and overall purchasing intent weak. Market sentiment is on the watchful side, traders are more willing to ship, low-priced goods are transacting, but a broad restocking wave has not yet appeared. In the short term, fundamentals lack upward drivers and the market still faces downward pressure; however, port inventory levels and the uncertainty from overseas market fluctuations will limit any rapid deep decline. Going forward, focus on the pace of phosphate fertilizer operating-rate recovery, international cargo arrivals, and changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation.

Specifically, regional market prices are as follows:

Sulfur Regional Market Quotes Overview (yuan/t)

Phosphate Fertilizer Market News Updates:

Oct 13: The Anhui MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3750-3850 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Northeast MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3900-4000 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Henan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3750-3800 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Hubei MAP market quoted mainstream 55% powder ex-works at around 3600-3700 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Jiangsu MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3750-3820 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Shandong MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3750-3800 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Sichuan MAP market quoted 55% powder delivery at around 3650-3750 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Yunnan MAP market quoted 55% powder ex-works at around 3700-3800 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Shaanxi DAP market quoted 60% self-pickup ex-works at 4600-4650 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Northeast DAP market quoted 64% self-pickup ex-works at 5000-5050 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Hebei DAP market quoted 57% self-pickup at 4000-4100 yuan/t, with quotes cut.

Oct 13: The Hubei DAP market quoted 64% self-pickup ex-works at 4700-4850 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady.

Oct 13: The Shandong DAP market quoted 64% self-pickup ex-warehouse at 4600-4900 yuan/t, with quotes holding steady; 57% self-pickup platform at 3950-4050 yuan/t, with quotes cut.