October 13 Urea Daily: Loose Supply-Demand Pressure Persists, Spot and Futures Prices Probe Lower

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to FDD data estimates, the urea small-granule price index on October 13 was 1771.36, down 4.55 from the previous working day, down 0.26% week on week, and up 8.76% year on year.

[Chart] 2025-2026 Urea Small-Granule Price Index Trend

Urea Futures Market:

Today the UR2701 contract opened at 1713, with a high of 1715, a low of 1692, a settlement price of 1701, and a closing price of 1698; the close was -25 versus the previous trading day's settlement price, down 1.45% week on week, and the Shandong basis for the 01 contract was +22; the 01 contract added 21,305 lots today, with open interest at 295,657 lots so far.

Today the urea futures board continued its weak downward pattern, with the board's center of gravity shifting further down and short funds' willingness to enter increasing, resonating with the weak spot market. Domestic supply and demand are currently loose overall: on the supply side, maintenance units are gradually restarting, daily output remains high, and goods are relatively ample; on the demand side, autumn fertilizer is wrapping up, agriculture has entered an off-season, compound fertilizer operating rates are low, industry maintains only rigid demand, and domestic demand support is insufficient. The Indian tender result fell short of expectations and offered limited boost to market sentiment; although stronger coal on the cost side provides some floor support, the support is not strong enough. Bearish sentiment is fairly heavy overall, yet as prices fall, new-order transactions at some enterprises have increased somewhat, and some low-price procurement demand may be released opportunistically, so the room for a further sharp decline in the short term may be limited. Overall, urea futures are expected to remain weak and range-bound in the short term; going forward, continued tracking is needed of downstream procurement pace, overseas order progress, and the release of reserve demand.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today the domestic urea spot market continued its weak downward trend. Quotes in the main producing areas generally loosened, some plants continued to cut prices slightly from earlier levels, actual transactions were mostly negotiated, and after low-priced goods increased somewhat, a moderate volume of new orders was concluded; however, fundamentals currently lack strong positive support, and the resistance to a price rebound is considerable. From a supply-demand fundamental perspective, overall supply remains on the ample side; on the demand side, agricultural autumn fertilizer demand for urea is fairly limited, and operating-rate increases in compound fertilizer and downstream industry are limited, with substantive demand release on the weak side. Overall, the urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term; enterprises face pressure on new-order signing, shipment pressure is gradually emerging, and quotes may probe lower, but bottom-fishing at low levels will slow the decline; the market will most likely grind lower in a stalemate, awaiting support from export news. Going forward, focus on the landing of positive export developments and the pace at which real demand and reserve demand start up.

Overall, the domestic urea spot market is currently running weak. On the supply side, previously maintained units are gradually resuming, industry daily output has risen somewhat, supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and overall supply remains loose; on the demand side, although enterprises have the need to collect orders and ship before the holiday, terminal demand has shown no obvious improvement, downstream players maintain rigid-demand procurement, agricultural autumn fertilizer stocking is limited, operating-rate increases in compound fertilizer and industry are limited, and substantive demand release is weak. The market is currently in a game stage where cost support and export diversion provide a floor while loose supply and demand exert pressure; prices may still loosen and move lower in the short term, but the room for a deep decline is limited; if prices fall to low levels, it may trigger the release of bargain-hunting sentiment.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China held steady at 1,790-1,810 yuan/t. Prices in East China were cut to 1,700-1,730 yuan/t. Prices in Central China were cut to 1,710-1,920 yuan/t. Prices in North China were cut to 1,570-1,800 yuan/t. Prices in South China were cut to 1,800-1,850 yuan/t. Prices in Northwest China held steady at 1,860-1,910 yuan/t. Prices in Southwest China held steady at 1,660-1,900 yuan/t.

Urea Small-Granule Market Quotes Overview (yuan/t)

Market News Updates:

Oct 13: The reference receiving price of urea in the Guangzhou, Guangdong market was 1,810-1,830 yuan/t, with the low end cut from the previous working day.

Oct 13: The reference receiving price of urea in the Nanning, Guangxi market was 1,810-1,810 yuan/t, down from the previous working day.

Oct 13: The reference receiving price of urea in the Shijiazhuang, Hebei market was 1,710-1,750 yuan/t, down 20 yuan/t from the previous working day.

Oct 13: The reference receiving price of urea in the Wen'an, Hebei market was 1,720-1,750 yuan/t, down 10 yuan/t from the previous working day.

Oct 13: Today the mainstream reference for medium/small granules in the Shangqiu market was 1,710-1,730 yuan/t, and large granules were around 2,040-2,050 yuan/t.

Oct 13: Today the mainstream reference for medium/small granules in the Jingmen market was 1,730-1,740 yuan/t, platform self-pickup was temporarily around 1,690-1,720 yuan/t, and large-granule platform self-pickup mainstream was 2,020-2,030 yuan/t.

Oct 13: The ex-warehouse/pickup price in the Tieling, Liaoning market was 1,780-1,800 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day.

Oct 13: The reference receiving price of urea in the Heze, Shandong market was around 1,710-1,720 yuan/t, down 10 yuan/t from the previous working day.

Oct 13: The reference receiving price of urea in the Linyi, Shandong market was 1,720 yuan/t, down 20 yuan/t from the previous working day.

Oct 13: The mainstream price in the Xianyang market was 1,800-1,820 yuan/t, flat versus the previous working day.