Opening at a Higher Marked Price, the Market Atmosphere is Improving

Domestic Urea Price Index:

According to data from Feidoodoo the urea small granule price index on August 10th is 2509.82, an increase of 18.91 from yesterday, up 0.76% month-on-month, and up 4.69% year-on-year.

Urea Futures Market:

The opening price of the urea UR2401 contract is 2039, with a high of 2039, a low of 1972, a settlement price of 1997, and a closing price of 1994. The closing price fell 62 compared to the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 3.02%. The daily fluctuation range was 1972-2039, with a price difference of 67. The 01 contract increased by 22,923 lots today, with a current position of 308,100 lots.

Spot Market Analysis:

Today, the mainstream price of the domestic urea market has generally increased, the market atmosphere is active, manufacturers have good orders, and prices have been significantly adjusted upwards, with some areas seeing a second price adjustment.

Specifically, prices in the Northeast region rose to 2240-2460 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2350-2580 yuan/ton. Prices in the Northwest region remained stable at 2440-2450 yuan/ton. Prices in the Southwest region fell to 2400-2650 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2490-2580 yuan/ton. In Central China, the price of small granules remained stable at 2450-2650 yuan/ton, while the price of large granules rose to 2550-2600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2650-2700 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast:

In terms of supply and demand, the daily production of domestic urea was around 174,000 tons yesterday, higher than the same period in previous years. Additionally, domestic demand has entered the off-season, with fertilizer use relatively reduced, and the overall domestic demand is low, with the pressure on the domestic urea market gradually emerging. For compound fertilizers, with the strong support of raw material prices, the price of compound fertilizers is on the rise. Low-end price sources are decreasing, and the market is mainly fulfilling previous orders. The market continues to operate in a stable and slightly strong manner, with some companies stopping reporting and receiving, and officially raising their ex-factory prices, with local increases of about 100 yuan. Internationally, the marked price was announced yesterday, opening higher. The bidding price minus related expenses is much higher than the quotation of domestic urea factories, boosting domestic market sentiment. The market sentiment has driven significantly, and the overall atmosphere is noticeably improving. In terms of futures, the main urea contract has completed the switch, and the January contract has replaced the September contract as the new main contract.

In summary, influenced by various favorable factors such as compound fertilizer procurement and India's bidding, the urea market has changed its continuous decline in prices in the previous few days. Prices in some areas have started to rise. In the short term, prices may continue to operate at high levels.