Phosphate Fertilizer Daily Review, July 13: Geopolitical Concerns Strengthen Cost Support, Demand Rhythm Remains Stalemated

Monoammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 13, the domestic monoammonium phosphate 55% powder index stood at 4,435.00, flat from the previous working day; the 55% granular index stood at 4,450.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 58% powder index stood at 4,710.00, flat from the previous working day.

Monoammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic monoammonium phosphate market remained stable.

On the enterprise side, most plants were still executing previous orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Raw material prices remained high, traders maintained a firm mindset, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis.

On the market side, current sentiment is characterized by sellers remaining firm but constrained, buyers staying cautious and watchful, and traders holding goods while waiting for further price increases.

On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer plants are currently operating at low loads. Some enterprises have already completed part of their raw material procurement, while willingness to purchase at high prices remains weak. Actual procurement is mainly limited to small-volume need-based purchases, with sentiment relatively cautious.

On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued over the weekend, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply, disrupting expectations for global seaborne sulfur supply. This continued to provide cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated firmly at high levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels. Cost-side pressure continued to increase, and enterprises maintained a strong willingness to hold prices firm.

Overall, supported by costs and pending orders, the monoammonium phosphate market is expected to remain stable at high levels in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends, the pace of downstream compound fertilizer autumn preparation, and the impact of sulfur market movements on cost transmission.

Diammonium Phosphate Price Index

According to FDD data, on July 13, the domestic mainstream diammonium phosphate 64% granular index stood at 4,571.67, flat from the previous working day; the 60% brown index stood at 4,350.00, flat from the previous working day; and the 57% content index stood at 4,432.50, flat from the previous working day.

Diammonium Phosphate Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic diammonium phosphate market continued to operate steadily.

On the enterprise side, some producers mainly focused on shipping previous pending orders, with no significant changes in market prices. Market sentiment toward holding prices firm remained strong, and actual transactions continued to be negotiated.

On the market side, wait-and-see sentiment remained strong.

On the demand side, performance remained relatively muted. Demand is still in the traditional fertilizer-use gap period, and domestic autumn sowing preparation has not yet started on a concentrated basis. Downstream compound fertilizer plants are mostly operating at low rates, with procurement limited to small-volume daily rigid-demand replenishment. Grassroots distributors remain strongly wait-and-see, and overall trading activity is stagnant and relatively light.

On the raw material side, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued over the weekend, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply. This continued to provide cost and sentiment support to the domestic sulfur market. Domestic sulfur prices fluctuated firmly at high levels, while port inventories remained low. Sulfuric acid prices fluctuated at high levels, and phosphate rock prices remained firm at high levels. High raw material prices continued to increase cost pressure, providing strong support to the market.

Overall, the diammonium phosphate market is expected to continue high-level consolidation in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price changes, downstream demand follow-up, and later export policy adjustments.

Sulfur Market Prices

According to FDD data, on July 13, the domestic Zhenjiang Port granular sulfur price stood at 8,900.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port granular sulfur stood at 8,880.00, flat from the previous working day; Zhenjiang Port powder/block sulfur stood at 8,850.00, flat from the previous working day; Dafeng Port powder/block sulfur stood at 8,830.00, flat from the previous working day; East China solid sulfur stood at 9,030.00, flat from the previous working day; and East China liquid sulfur stood at 8,905.00, up 0.34% from the previous working day.

Sulfur Market Analysis and Forecast

Today, the domestic sulfur market overall fluctuated firmly at high levels, with regional divergence and continued long-short competition. Over the weekend, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to ferment, and Iran again claimed it would close the Strait of Hormuz, causing market concerns to re-emerge. In addition, supply tightened due to maintenance at East China refineries, supporting the market. The market center moved slightly higher and some regional trading improved, but under high price levels, downstream procurement remained cautious. Overall, the market lacked clear momentum for either a rise or decline, and the trend remained stalemated.

On the domestic supply side, structural positives remain. Maintenance at East China refineries has tightened regional supply, while downstream rigid demand has provided a floor, and procurement activity has improved noticeably compared with the previous period. Domestic liquid sulfur remained relatively firm. The Shandong market continued to rebound, auction prices operated at high levels, and supply was generally stable. However, downstream cost pressure increased, high-price transactions faced resistance, and the market entered stalemate consolidation.

In Northwest China, market sentiment improved. Shipments in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia recovered, the transaction center for low-priced cargoes moved upward, and auction prices edged higher, providing strong support to the market. In Northeast China, liquid sulfur prices remained stable and operated smoothly.

In the short term, the sulfur market is expected to continue high-level consolidation with narrow-range fluctuations. Momentum for a unilateral rise or fall is insufficient, and long-short competition will continue to dominate. Support mainly comes from sentiment and cost support driven by geopolitical uncertainty, combined with a short-term supply gap from East China refinery maintenance that is difficult to repair quickly, continued downstream rigid-demand support, and steady increases in Northwest shipments and auction prices. Market bottom support remains solid, and room for a sharp decline is limited.

Overall, the short-term sulfur market is expected to fluctuate within a high-level range, with no clear unilateral trend. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, the progress of East China refinery maintenance, and downstream restocking pace. These factors will guide short-term market direction.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market Updates

July 13: In the Anhui MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 13: In the Northeast MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,250-4,250/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 13: In the Henan MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,530-4,550/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 13: In the Hubei MAP market, mainstream ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,200-4,450/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 13: In the Jiangsu MAP market, 55% powder was quoted at around RMB 4,520-4,500/tonne delivered, with quotations stable.

July 13: In the Shandong MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,530-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 13: In the Sichuan MAP market, delivered quotations for 55% powder were around RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 13: In the Yunnan MAP market, ex-factory prices for 55% powder were around RMB 4,250-4,300/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 13: In Shaanxi, 60% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,300-4,350/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 13: In Northeast China, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,550-4,600/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 13: In Hebei, 57% DAP self-pickup quotations were RMB 4,420-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 13: In Hubei, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-factory quotations were RMB 4,800-4,850/tonne, with quotations stable.

July 13: In Shandong, 64% DAP self-pickup ex-warehouse quotations were RMB 4,900-4,980/tonne, with quotations stable; 57% self-pickup station quotations were RMB 4,450-4,500/tonne, with quotations stable.